People seem to cling to this belief that Steemit is nothing more than a place where the rich get richer, the whales just upvote themselves while not caring about the lowly red fish, paid bots are killing this place and the system needs to be changed.
This is all incorrect.
Every couple weeks I put together a report that totally negates all these assertions. Nevertheless, people still cling to these views.
Therefore, since people feel that two week comparisons, even when done over a period of 75 days, is not enough, here is a comparison from August 1, 2017. This time frame really makes the shift noticeable.
8/1/2017
The total MVests here is 336,936.
On a percentage basis:
Whales 75.44%
Orcas 14.85%
Dolphins 7.16%
Minnows 2.14%
Red Fish .01%
Inactive .39%
3/16/2018
The total MVests here is 383,224.
On a percentage basis:
Whales 61.87%
Orcas 17.86%
Dolphins 11.38%
Minnows 5.67%
Red Fish 1.34%
Inactive 1.87%
The change over that time period is as such:
Whales -6.71%
Orcas +36.78%
Dolphins +80.90%
Minnows +201.23%
Red Fish +10208%
Inactive +434.85%
8/1/2017
3/16/2018
On 8/1/2017...
Whales had 75.44% of the total SP out there....on 3/16/2018, that number is 61.87%...A DROP OF 17.99% in 6.5 months.
Whales and Orcas accounted for an astonishing 90.29%....on 3/16/2018, that number is 79.74%...A DROP OF 11.68% in 6.5 months.
If this rate continues for the Whales throughout the next 5.5 months, you will see those accounts lose over 33% of their power while the Whales/Orcas will be down 21.56%.
Here is @arcange's post from last August...
https://steemit.com/statistics/@arcange/steemit-statistics-20170801-en
So in spite of all the complaints about Whales circle voting, the use of bots, and Whales only in it for themselves, the facts prove that the Whales influence, as denoted by their percentage of SP, is dropping at a rapid rate. As I stated, if this pace keeps up, they will lose over 1/3 their influence in A YEAR. That is a huge drop.
The numbers keep proving, the more people who sign onto this blockchain and post, the more the Whales will lose influence. The reward pool is structured so that 75% of the daily payout goes to authors. Whales cannot put up enough content to keep pace with all the new posters.
Another thing is people like to point to paid voting bots as a potential ruination of STEEM.
Here is a surprise for everyone, this is a misguided accusation also.
@penguinpablo did a study on this the other day.
Approximately 1.7% of all votes are done by a paid voting service. And as you can see in the chart, the paid votes are quite in line with the total number of votes.
Now that the facts are out, does anyone really think 1.7% is a problem?
98.3% of all votes are given freely according to the numbers posted by @penguinpablo.
Here is the post on it.....
https://steemit.com/steemit/@penguinpablo/how-many-of-the-upvotes-are-done-by-paid-voting-bots
It appears that all the calls for changing the system are espousing about something that is not really a problem. The uneven distribution is leveling out as time goes by. The facts, in both the short and long term, bear this out.
If you found this post informative, please give it an upvote and resteem.
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This certainly is good news, and, with the fact that the trend is strengthening, it's getting even better. Very encouraging. Thanks for tracking it.
I knew the distribution of Steem was moving into the direction of dolphins, minnows & redfish, so this was not a suprise for me. But that it's happening this quickly kinda was! I think that is really good news for this platform!
But the second part in your post amazes me, only 1,7% of the votes is done through bots?? Are you 100% certain of this statistic? The impression I have at the moment is completely different, but then again, what knowledge or analysis did I do except just looking the trending page...
I'd like to know, actually, how big is the percentage of the daily rewards appearing on the trending page? Or, what percentage of post rewards does never appear on the trending page?
I didnt do the analysis, that was @penguinpablo but his work tends to be spot on so I have no reason to doubt it.
I agree with you that the impression about a lot of things can be different. While you are not surprised about the distribution change, at least as a trend, many are. They believe the the rich are getting richer.
The final pieces you ask about, I do not know if those can be run. I would guess they couldnt since the analysis is of the blockchain and trending page is a Steemit feature.
Nevertheless, I take this all as good news that, in spite of impressions, there are some major things on Steem that are working.
Allright! I'm gonna check out that @penguinpablo post. Interesting stuff!
Hmm, I' ve just read two posts by @penguinpablo:
How come the bots are taking $22,442.70 out of the reward pool per day, but there's about $100,000.00 invested in those bots daily? It doesn't make sense to me that Steemians would structurally invest in things that have a huge negative ROI... What am I missing?
The "only 1.7% of the votes is done by bots" seems unweighted. I don't think a 100% vote from someone with 15SP and someone with 150.000SP are the same thing...
Now I remember why I don't follow @penguinpablo anymore, usually after reading his posts, I have more questions than answers...
I cant speak for the research, but to the point of a 15 SP very 150SP is taken into account. The 1.7% is using the total number. You are right to point out there the weight is not the same. So while the total number might be low, when you look at the actually voting weight, it could have a much greater impact.
you did speak for the research when you posted this and used it to paint a picture of the reality of upvote bots. But, you're missing a lot of information in your assessment.
The bot percentage has to be higher than 1.7%. I thought there were some discrepancies in PP’s post that were pointed out by some and that he admitted were question marks. Going from memory here and want to be wrong. All that aside, another awesome post Taskmaster!
How is it awesome, when it's completely irrelevant, of course the tide is shifting but unless you can get all 40k new users that signed up last week to vote together (at 1/3 of a cent each = about $120 TOTAL) you can't even begin to make a dent in some of those bots.
A total surprise on the number by paid bots. Not a problem indeed!
Years from now when the Steem blockchain is part of almost everyone’s life, a team of documentary film buffs will release a feature-length film premiering on DTube: Rise of the Minnows.
Thanks for posting that information. It's important for the good long-term health of Steemit to have power distributed more broadly among the community, not just the whales. Steemit should benefit all its members, not just those at the very top.
I agree @gtrplayer. The key for a currency is the distribution of it.
It is common for a newer currency to have it in the hands of a few early adopters. However, over time, it needs to spread out. This is what we are seeing with STEEM.
With more people signing up, we should see this trend better.
I do expect that the whales will loose more power in the coming weeks. Lots of red fishes, minnows and dolphins will be bying Steem with these low prices, which will have an impact on the voting powers of the whales!
That is very true @fullcoverbetting.
If the price remains low, there will be some powering up to enhance their accounts. That will help a great deal.
Another factor is fixing the sign up. We were told that it would be about a month before we saw an effect....if we see that in the next couple weeks, an influx of people could really cause a shift over the next few months.
Indeed 5 days after each other with more than 2K new subscribers. Always a good sign.
To bad, we also have maybe more drop outs than newcomers.
But as long as people do think that Steemit is a quick rich scheme, they will drop out.
As soon as they see it as a new social media platform, where the money part is more a nice side effect than the main reason we will be fine!
I agree completely. I do not like the idea of promoting this site, marketing it, based upon the money making aspects of things. I think those on YouTube and Facebook are doing a disservice to the blockchain.
We need to promote censorship free, decentralization, and a lack of data mining...plus we can throw in unhackable.
These are things that we need to tout...they are concepts that are on people's minds.
The “drop outs” could just be taking a break. When steem is back up, they will be back too.
It’s a out building communities, if there are people reading and commenting on your work, often, you are more likely to stay - or want to come back.
I know I'll be buying in for sure, because these prices are way too good to pas up!
Upvoted.
Thank you for this post. I had been struggling to find a clear overview of the situation with regards to whales and bots. Good to see the distribution changing. I am confident the steemit platform will continue to develop as it was intended to do so. We are still so early in its' development.
Onward and upward we go!
I think this is great news. I've been following in ups of seeing the numbers keep moving in this direction. I haven't been here for that long but I've always said we do not need to change the system because it will continue changing itself based on it's own growth and how we as users respond to the content. Thank you for the work you do here.
I always enjoy reading your posts because they are often loaded with fresh knowledge and wisdom. There is no doubt that the concentration of Steem Power is gradually becoming decentralized as the times wear on.
As for the use of bid bots, I share your views that bots have great advantages for those who understand how it works.
People aren’t used to abundance systems that work.
We have to give them time to catch up. All of this fear will soon turn to poetry of our project continues the way we want it to.
This is very true @metzli.
They are schooled in the world of scarcity meaning that they are going to allow fear, anger, and competition take over.
In a world of abundance, all that goes away....yet most still need to cling onto the belief there isnt enough.
In game theory, there are games of cooperation and games of competition, and it will be interesting to see which side steem users gravitate to. In your opinion @taskmaster4450 is the game of steem purely a game of cooperation?
The huge spike in crypto woke a lot of people up to it. Now that the prices are coming back down people can afford to buy it. I feel like downswings and upswings are an important part of blockchain decentralization.
I'm doing my part to change the numbers. I've moved from dead fish to red fish. Ha ha!
Does anyone have a tool that allows you to calculate how long it will take to move up to the next group? i.e. 30 days to minnow.
It all depends upon your payouts. Obviously, the more active one is, the more he or she receives on a daily basis. Making connections and gaining followers is crucial.
Welcome to the world of the living...it is good to know one who moved out of the inactive category.
I think people think like this because it's hard to find all the data in one spot, like an article like this. Instead, they have to do their own research, and need to make assumptions and rough estimates because you can't possibly study the work of every single person.
I know I see these prices of Steem and will try to load up as much as I can over the next few weeks.
I didn't get in early so I feel like I'm paying a premium even at $1.70 a Steem....But it doesn't matter to me. I buy Steem and power up because I believe in the platform. So whether it's a buck or 10 bucks a Steem...It's all gravy :)
In other news....I now know there are members named Orcas on Steemit LOL Thanks for the insight :)
Dont feel bad, I have a batch of STEEM at $2 from the last time.
Think of it this way, even at $1.70, when STEEM is $14, it will be a nice return. Plus it enhanced your voting power meaning that you will further enhance returns (both for yourself and those you support with upvotes).
Oh absolutely! Loving the discounts right now :)
Informative, thanks for your work. I wonder if I'm a minnow or a red fish? I haven't been posting long (since january) but I have had fun and have learnt a lot. I hope Steemit keeps spreading. I have shared my work on fb and have encouraged people to sign up for Steemit but several of them are still waiting weeks on which is a bit frustrating when you hope friends and family might help boost your viewing figures a touch.
@taskmaster4450 - excellent post and analytics you have created. Yes everyone wants to be a whale, because the do have influence and voting power. I did not know that whales were losing their voting power, but this makes sense because of all the new Steemians coming on board now.
You know using bots to gain Steem and voting power is just a necessary fact of Steemit. Sure, you can create lots of good content, but what if no one sees that content? Bots are a fact of life on here, if you want to quickly move up your voting & Steempower. Great post as always!
I needed some positive news for a change :) I'll keep you to the promise that whales will lose 1/3 of their power in a year's time :D
LOL If did preface that with the word "IF".....
Unlike my St Pats date deal, this is not a forecast.
Although, oddly enough, a lower STEEM price could help this process some if a chunk of the smaller account use this time to power up.
That's good news for us minnows because we can grow on this platform a little faster ..
and get some extra steempoower ..
Collectively, it is much easier for the smaller accounts to grow at a proportional rate. This means that the ones at the top will have their influence decreased.
It still requires the consistent daily effort but it will pay big dividends when the price of STEEM heads back up.
You have all the reasons ... like .. I would like to have the resources to invest in steempower to take advantage of the low price, which currently has the estem ... in the end, an investment at this time is worth ... for the future ...
more than anything ... to give a gift with my upvote to my little followers
Very interesting post. Will be neat to see how this dynamic changes a month from now. Anyway, I upvoted and resteemed. Thank you!
Since January, when I really started to monitor it, the trend has continued each time I looked at it. So, overall, I would expect it to continue.
Someone just mentioned that the lower STEEM price might help a bit too since smaller accounts can use this opportunity to power up some.
True. I just hope people see the opportunity and keep faith that it's worth it in the end. I suppose when price of STEEM dips, it really test who came here for the money and who loves the technology and see the bigger picture. It will be interesting to watch how this unfolds I think.
I think the money is a very important aspect of it.
It’s a way to make an income. An opportunity to become an investor, a way to learn about financial freedom, a way to leave a nest for the next generation.
The money is important.
Your consistent reportage on this pattern is commendable. The drift in percentage held by whales when compared to other demographics on Steemit surely gives some hope.
The more people feel they their votes can make a change, the more confidence the system has.
Odd... Where's the folks saying that whales leaving is a bad sign? I don't believe that anyway, it's better that power is spread out more, so I'm taking this as a good sign.
The bots are surprising indeed, though I'm not sure it would be able to account for votes coming from e.g. smartmarket where a single bot send can come with multiple votes adding to a particular value. More instructive to go by the values as someone else pointed out in a comment below.
Its good to have less whales even if it momentarily makes the value of our coin lower.
Whales cause crashes.
Better to build slow but steady.
Yo, it is good to see this developement but I get where those complains come from. There are only very few categories where you can make any gains and in all the others there is 0 community. I just made a post on my other account about what is the problem with let's play community here, and I already got atleast one response that it is problem with alot of other topics too. @bestbroplayer you should find that post there. I'd like you and possibly others to read it and resteem if they find it to be of any value.
It is great to see such a huge increase in the smaller users!
What do you think of the current market @taskmaster4450? those prices are looking ugly at the moment but I think they will recover eventually and reach new ATH
Yes @dedicatedguy. The market is ugly but you know I always advise that people, especially long term hodlers, ignore price action. We are seeing FUD and it is harsh. However, the development of all these blockchains is going hot and heavy.
We will see higher levels than we did before, it is only a question of how long it takes.
This is an absolutely marvelous layout of what I had been seeing as the price of steem has gone down. I am glad someone of your stature is fully disclosing the truth in this respect and opening the eyes of people who are focused on other things due to ignorance of the facts. Thank you @taskmaster4450!
A lot of whales are powering down, is this the expected result of that?
Could this be because whales are powering down? That would explain their loss of SP in absolute terms, though you are correct to note the growth of the other classes. That said, for everyone below dolphin, there hasn't been much growth in SP per account, there's just a lot more accounts in those categories.
For example, yes, red fish cumulative SP has skyrocketed by over 1000%. But you do know that there are over 100,000 more red fish than there were a year ago? The average growth per red fish account can't be much more than a few percent.
I would also note that even if everyone below whale-class voted as one, they could not collectively out-vote the whales as a group. So remember kids, if you are trying to make changes around here, you will have to be smart about it.
As for the vote-bots, other commenters have said this, but I'm going to say it again - the 1.7% is misleading. @penguinpablo points out here how much the bots can roughly allocate per day - which seems to be about $22,442.70
(depending on the market etc.). This would mean about twenty grand is allocated every day, on the basis of 1.7% of the votes. I say 'allocated', because the ROI on the bots is so often negative, that the people purchasing these services are not making a profit, so what's really happening is that about $22,442.70 goes straight from the reward pool into bots, and from there a portion of the profit goes back to those who have delegated to them etc.
What you've presented is important, and it's not technically wrong. But unless people follow the reports from @penguinpablo, @statsmonkey, and @bitgeek's excellent payout stats report, they would be getting an incomplete picture of the situation.
I agree with a lot of your comment and upvoted it for that reason.
It is interesting to see everyone's take on the information available.
As someone new to the platform I can tell you, regardless of your analysis, that the new user experience is exactly what is stated in the opening paragraph.
I joined, wrote detailed, informative posts, commented, upvoted, followed, replied, everything. I've earned nowhere near $1 while I see shit posts making loads of money with endless bots and such gaming the system. It is hopelessly far from being a rewarding place to contribute. Your stats aside, my experience has been that this is a thoroughly rigged game.
I took a look at the bot stats. I don't think that's even a fraction of the existing bots, for one, secondly, each bot carries delegation from hundreds of accounts, so they still direct a disproportionate percentage of the rewards pool. Not to mention, many of the bots have autovote followers, to make it look like multiple votes. Then you have to factor in the votes that follow those bots to make curation. I think there are a lot of considerations here that you're missing. As to the shift, we started 40,000 new accounts this week. Each of them gets less than a penny in vote power, but of course that causes a shift, down. Unless those accounts can truly hope to be voted on fairly and gain rewards, it won't matter. Most of them will be gone in less than three months, leaving much of that SP in ghost accounts that sit unused. I wish I could agree with your assessment, not only that, but the whales earn 20% of the rewards through vote buying, and they don't have to risk any downvotes. It is a problem. I wish it wasn't. But it is.
Placeholder reply so that i know where to look for this later. Chockfull of good points to consider here. There are a lot of angles on votebots and how best to dimensionalize them for purposes of analyzing their impact. ive been trying to compile the facts and hope to be able to draw some kind of conclusion .
Yep. I'm new, fed up with it, and ready to leave. They say the whales aren't going to keep taking all the money, but new users quickly find out otherwise. And yes, I'll leave my little SP sitting unused in my ghost account when I go. Contributing good content means nothing here.
Don't leave just yet. Head over to @dolphinschool and sign up for the bootcamp. I'll help you get started. Right now, it's tough, but the price is way down (but coming back up) so people are not on right now and the vote buying is something new,but I think it will fade too, it's getting to be more expensive than it's worth.
Yes. Whales recently extracted alot of their income. Their wealth is growing again. They will soon have 75% again. They are most likely going to buy in when price is low again. Sell high buy low, you know ;). And I have no problem with this. Do you have a problem with the fact that wealth is concentrating in the hands of a few?
Source:
https://steemit.com/steemit/@penguinpablo/weekly-steem-stats-report-monday-march-26-2018
Actually I ran the numbers this morning, it is still going down....both in terms of MVests and percentage of the whole.
As for the hands of a few, that is spreading out...that is the entire point...the numbers even since Jan 1, show a significant drop in the Whales holding....the same for the last two weeks (albeit they arent significant in that shorts a time frame).
I will have another post on it after the month ends...the trend is holding it appears even through this low price STEEM period.
In fact, I was surprised that both the Whales and Orcas (combined) percentage is down since this post originally went up since the number of Orcas grew (it appears some dolphins graduated).
Earlier you asked me if I believed whales are growing. I can now answer that I believe they are taking opportunity of the downtrend by selling and later buy alot more.
@taskmaster4450 Thank you for showing us newbies that the playing field is even for all of us. Upvoted. Cheers!
Thanks information, nice post
thank to share information ... regard from aceh
This is pretty good stuff. I love reading your reports. Thanks for the good news.
Very good post, thanks for sharing.
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Interesting analysis :) Thanks for that!
Thank you for taking the time to put this together, it is great to know that there is nothing to stop anyone from achieving their goals on this platform as long as they are willing to put in the work.
https://steemit.com/aceh/@amielis/aceh-wajib-tau-ee05a7fe5a1a8
thank you @taskmaster4450 for debunking these popular beliefs with data, I see no reason why people would still think that bots are not useful around if they bothered to read some of this references.
I see a lot of dead fish.
Could it be that the life cycle of a steemian is relative short?
Could it be that people:
sign up
try to do what they can
get bored
give up
????
I think it is a common part of the Internet. People sign up and then lose interest.
The situation is magnified on STEEM in my opinion because of the delay from the time people sign up and get verified. When one has to wait a week or two, the interest is lost for many people.
Add in the fact that many are led here by the promise of making riches instantly which is misleading for most and people get discouraged.
For this reason, I believe we need to tout the idea of lack of censorship, no data mining, and freedom through decentralization.
Turnover and attrition rate is very, very high. Well over 90% per year. Not very many people stay. And that's with the prices still elevated, the rate of new users leaving was even higher when prices were low. The content is simply too garbage to keep regular people interested.
Whales selling does not necessarily mean anything other than the fact that some big investors decided to cash out, it's not like minnows were getting voted on enough to move up the ranks, and much of these charts are distorted by the apps and their delegations. The remaining whales are often the "do as I say, not as I do" types who shamelessly tell new users to power up while they sell their SBD on the open market. Without the apps and their 500k or million plus delegations from stinc, the voting power going towards small accounts would be much, much, much lower.
Great post supported by data.
The whales to Steemit are like Bitcoin to the market cap of the crypto space. They will both continue to heavily influence their respective space.
Great post i like it
I wonder if any of this redistribution has to do with the flagging wars with whales taking SP away from each other.
I dont think so...the distribution trends started before the flagging war.
It might speed things up or slow them down...I am not sure...but the overall trend appears to be ongoing.
Solid news, right now the whale power makes steem somewhat centralized and we need to move more towards not having to worry about whales and just thinking about community development
Thanks for posting this. I have had some doubts recently about the long-term sustainability of steemit if whales continue to act solely in their own self-interest instead of giving back to the community. It looks like the problem might take care of itself without intervention, which would be great.
How is it possible that the total amount of M-vests from whales is going down? Does that mean they powered some down?
This is an excellent confirmation that we are all moving towards decentralization. Thanks for the amazing analysis. Good luck to you and Love.
This is definitely a good read and a positive perspective.
I like to read your posts about development od steem platform and shares that whales have. Even reading how many minnows progressed makes me look happy. This ensures me that this platform has bright future ahead. Thx for post.
Very interesting. I've been saying that the whale influence should decrease as steemit grows. When we get to millions of users the graph should be even flatter. I'm one of many dolphins who have built their accounts up over the last year or two. I do my best to support good minnows.
I still think there are some issues with buying votes as some buy huge votes that distort the trending pages