Last night I was notified of a few things that show the bears are out again. This, of course, was before the strong move upwards in the price of STEEM this morning. Perhaps this put them back in hibernation for a little while but it does not matter. Bullishness for STEEM should not come from short-term price action.
I am on record stating that I believe we will see $100 STEEM by the end of the year. Nevertheless, in this post, I am going to forget all that. Let us look at the situation as if nothing changed throughout the year.
At present, there are somewhere between 35K-40K daily users. Let us suppose the recent growth rate does not hold and we see a pulling back to about 500 per month. This is not a radical figure since it is less than 2% monthly growth. My presumption is this is a natural growth without any external marketing, changes in the UI, or SMTs. Everything stays the same.
So why do I conclude this growth rate is guaranteed?
My conclusion is because people are making money on the STEEM blockchain. PERIOD.
The 35K-40K are all earning STEEM. That means any amount of posting, commenting, and upvoting will get people some STEEM in their account. While many want to compare to the whales and others trending, let us take another view.
If one earns 50 SP on here, at $3 per token, that is $150. While this is a small amount, it is more than 98% of all bloggers make on the traditional platforms. At the same time, if someone gets to 500 SP, that puts them in elite company for blogging. Very few people ever make more than $1500 through the likes of Blogger and Wordpress. I would surmise this is less than 1% of all the people who try their hand at it.
Since people are making money, word spreads which presents the growth rate. Again, I am not talking about doubling each month. What I am focusing upon is the natural, word-of-mouth growth of a little less than 2% per month (let's call it 20% a year). This is an abysmal growth rate yet still would add over 8K daily users to the blockchain. People like to tell others of their success. This is how daughters, sons, mothers, fathers, and neighbors get involved.
So even with nothing more than users sharing what they are doing with people they know, we can see 20% growth a year for who knows how long.
Another guaranteed aspect of all this is the steem blockchain does not contain the questions other blockchains presently have. Steem is already established.
Look at the latest blocktivity.info stats. Steem is only getting further ahead in the number of transactions it is processing on a daily basis. This tells me there is growth. It also states that things are happening. Steem was designed to be a social media/blogging platform. This role is being fulfilled at this moment.
Other blockchains carry with them major question marks of where they will eventually end up. Will Bitcoin end up as a store of value? Who will end up as digital money? How will blockchain X scale up? Will blockchain Y be knocked off by blockchain Z? None of these questions exist for the Steem blockchain. It is an scaled blockchain that is operating as a social media site that rewards both content creators and curators. And did I mention, people are making money?
What happens if the price of STEEM does collapse? What if the present price action is based upon future projections of advancement that do not occur?
Let us review that.
If the price action starts to plunge downward, at what point do some people on here buy? I cannot give an answer to that in terms of a figure but I can tell you there is a point where many of the daily users would pick up more STEEM. One of the wonders of this blockchain is there is a built-in incentive for people to buy more STEEM...it enhances one's SP. This, in turn, creates a snowball effect which enables one to take part in a greater part of the daily reward pool.
What this does is creates a floor in the price. Personally, I am sure I was start scaling in heavily if the price hit $1.50. A few months ago, I kept buying down all the way to $.85. If the price hit those levels again, I would be powering up and I believe many others would also. The reward pool does not change from its original distribution plan. Therefore, each day STEEM is available to anyone who participates. Powering up would only enhance each person's account.
Hence we have a blockchain that is fulfilling the purpose it was designed for, has tens of thousands of people making money, and has a built in pricing floor since a portion of the 40K daily users would purchase STEEM if the price pulled back enough, to me that is guaranteed success. Even with a measly 20% annual growth rate, an rounding error in the crypto/blockchain world, we would see the pricing hold in a steady range, at worst. This means that everyone who is active would be adding to their accounts daily by participating in the reward pool.
Where is the downside in that? And this is the worst case scenario.
Even at its worst, STEEM is a money-maker for people.
If you found this article helpful, please upvote and resteem.
Pictures by google images.
hmmm ...talking about the assumptions you made...
growth +20% per year? IMHO This can we be called the worst case scenario. In reality it will be ( and I got almost no doubt on it) much more then that.
I agree...I wanted a growth rate that was fairly easy to hit and could be done basically by those on here telling their friends and family of the success they were having.
When you look at startups in any realm, +100% growth for the first few years is not uncommon. I wouldnt be surprised if the steem blockchain experienced a doubling in the number of users every 3 months or so starting the middle of 2018.
The next fork, speeding up the sign up process, is a huge piece of that puzzle.
You're right it's a genius system, just need to wait for everyone to catch up!
I am going to surmise that the HF20 will assist in that area a great deal. The extended time it takes people to get approved from sign up probably drops the retention rate.
The new fork automates it from what I understand.
Yeh that's it. The Steemit experience has to be better than its competitors (facebook/reddit) in as many ways as possible and the instant sign ups is something they still have in their advantage.
The quick sign ups and the communities aspect....
I believe we will be looking at things a lot differently in 90 days...by then we will have the hard fork, hopefully SMTs, and communities.
A few years back I ran a scifi/comics/cartoons news site. After two years of posts and several targeted ad campaigns I had to give up because I could no longer justify the price of hosting. I made eight hundred dollars off of it the whole time it was up.
I have been active on steem for ~one month. In my wallet it says the current value of my account is $186.17. I have almost made one quarter of my total earnings from my previous site. I have spent nothing. I did however cash out five 10 bucks or so.
Yeah, I'd say we have reason to be bullish.
STEEM is simply my #1 HODL coin. Why? Cuz I'm using the bloody thing every day few hours a day. That's the biggest argument against massive price drops I have. Every single penny I've put on STEEM/SBD went into my STEEM account. I don't trade STEEM. Period. Why? I'm using it. Also I'm making some money while using it. So I don't have to trade to increase my STEEM holdings. In fact over 95% of my STEEM was Earned on the platform.
STEEM is a blockchain we use. It has immediate utility. A large portion of it is locked in VESTS (That's SP for noobs). We also have SBD that would always worth at least 1 USD. If USD goes to zero, we'll be living under SDR world currency. bitUSD is limited by 1 USD. But SBD has the same saefty net but also (Theoretically)unlimited upside.
Spread the gospel of perks people!!! That's the only way we are going to progress in a free market.
there are many people that are trying to make money blogging with huge influencers that teach it. I've been active in blogging groups on fb and other places and steemit would simplify those people's lives by leaps and bounds. I'm just waiting till I start making more so I can show myself as an example.
Not to mention that there's a big push to stop ads with new tech even by Google itself. So, there's a need for alternatives
Thank you for breaking all this down for newbies like me. I followed your advice the day I started and have moved all my earnings to steem power. I like the idea of investing in this platform. It is empowering. And, yes, you are right. Take it from someone who blogged on wordpress daily for 6 years with a large following, there is no pay there. I have already earned more here in a week then I earned the entire time on wordpress. Needless to say, I closed out that blog this week. I am all in on Steemit. Thanks to you and others for growing this platform. Blessings.
Thank you for your comment @gatorlynne.
This is a statement and a half....it is also STEEM's greatest marketing tactic....I am sure you tell anyone who will listen how you made more in a week on here than you did in 6 years.
In marketing, that is what is called "an attention getter".
Anyone who is remotely interested in blogging or sharing their ideas who hears that from you will have to take notice. Can that same thing happen a few hundred times a month around the world? I think so.
That is why I say success is guaranteed on here even if nothing else is done to the platform or blockchain.
Yes, I agree. I have been talking Steemit up to my daughter for that reason.I truly believe it is the future. It has spoiled me. I went to read an article today off google and backed out from the overload of ads. I'll take Steemit content any day! Blessings and Happy 2018!
I believe this will be a great year for STEEM! I don’t think I see $100 yet, but am confident we will see a break of $10 very soon. :)
My $10 mark was by St Patrick's Day.
Depending upon how long until the hard fork, that might be a bit conservative. If the HF comes in January, we might see $10 much sooner since the sign up process will be streamlined a great deal.
Well looks like we will get there sooner than we thought!! Awesome rally!!
I actually had no idea about a hard fork for STEEM. Thanks for letting me know, I'll do some research!
When I started out on steemit some five months ago, I knew it had potential but that it would go at this pace, I never envisaged that. In all our predictions, I have this belief that steemit is going to out-do all in a positive direction. And that is every user's prayer.
Thank you @edith4angelseu.
The only thing that comes to my mind is, you ain't seen nothing yet.
I believe we are at the point of exponential growth. There are a number of factors all converging together which are going to help STEEM explode. We will see many more viewers on this blockchain by the end of the first quarter along with some technical progress.
It is all coming together and meeting in your wallet.
Some people do not like the supply doubling every year
From the BLUEPAPER...
https://steem.io/steem-bluepaper.pdf
"The rate that new tokens are generated was set to 9.5% per year starting in December 2016, and decreases at a rate of 0.01% every 250,000 blocks, or about 0.5% per year. The inflation will continue decreasing at this rate until it reaches 0.95%, after a period of approximately 20.5 years."
"Of the supply of new tokens created by the Steem blockchain every year, 75% of those tokens compose the “rewards pool” which are distributed to content creators and content curators. 15% are distributed to vested token holders, and 10% are distributed to Witnesses, the block producers cooperating inside Steem’s DPoS consensus protocol."
Damn @robert-call....
There you go again...bringing out those things called facts again.
Nice one I did not know this.
Thanks Robert for the clarification. Many people have wrong ideas about how Steem works. We all need to educate them.
Doubling every year?
Where did you see that?
To be fair that was the old inflation model. Thank God they changed it.
It appears the developers/witnesses get attacked for a lot on here yet they seem to be doing things, over time, that improve the outlook dramatically.
I really dont get the negativity about the development team and why some feel they lack focus...fork 20 is going to solve a couple major issues and SMTs, which some seem to be down upon, will open up the path for a lot of traffic in my opinion. I guess. people just are naturally negative.
I feel steem has an identity and a direction...something other chains appear to be seeking.
A lot has changed on Steem which is still in the heads of cryptocurrency enthusiasts who have no further interest in this blockchain. Most of the bad publicity actually does come from these people who are having their prejeduces from the early Steem days.
Being relatively new to the site, I do not know what went on or who the players in this chess game are.
I can see that the prejudice still exists...but at $4 STEEM and heading higher, you would think they would settle down.
Some like to hold onto their misery and "be right"...that why they fell vindicated in their views.
I've had a Wordpress blog for over 2 years... I hate advertising in this blog, so the way I make money is to sell an eBook. Over that time I've made about $900 from my combined sales. .. however, since the Google keywords I want to rank for are quite competitive, and those keywords get a lot of articles from mainstream media, I've paid over $3000 in Google Adwords. I also pay yearly fees for my domain and hosting costs...
With Steem I have zero costs. .. and my account in just over a month is currently valued at more than my combined ebook sales of 2 years... At it's height my Wordpress blog was getting 10,000 visitors a day.
So yes, I can verify that everything you've said here is correct in my eyes.
Also, it's implied. .. but Steem is so much more fun than my own blog. I've learnt so much and made so many amazing and inspiring friends.... one can never been lonely here on the blockchain.
Thank you @aussieninja.
You are another example of one who spent a great deal of time blogging only to realize you were losing money. On steemit, there is no cost, just sign up and go.
No matter what anyone does on here, they make money. It might only be a few cents, bit it is money.
With a bit of effort, the payback increases a great deal more.
You're welcome @taskmaster4450... Everything you said was right on the money, but I wanted to provide a practical example for your other readers. Blogging on Wordpress and Blogger is super tough... your scalability is exciting, but the effort you have to put in to get any sort of traction is huge... which Steem solves automatically AND everytime I've linked my blog on Steemit it's gone up in the Google Rankings... which means it's actually better and cheaper than Google Adwords. Even $10 a day adds up over a year.
Man, I wish steem was at a dollar, I'd power up as much as I could because I'm pretty positive people are going to end up loving the platform and adopting it like I did. In less than a month I've accumulated almost 100 steem from commenting, posting, and contests. If I can do it anyone can. Much thanks to my supporters and followers :)
Happy new year @taskmaster4450
One of the things with assets taking off is that we always wish we could have gotten in at a cheaper price.
Of course, when the price is $6, people will be saying, I wish I could have gotten in at $3.50.
When this token is $20, $3.50 will look like a bargain.
Good point, its probably smart to have that perspective, especially for those of use who are new and might feel like we are behind
A great well thought post. I agree with you 100% I will buy like crazy when the price falls I joined during the summer. I invested a mere 250 euro. And now I have gotten back the initial investment and now looking at pure profit.steem is here to stay. So steem on 😉
Steem is going to a play major role in changing the world. As Steem keeps growing everyone is happy. Even when Steem's price decreases people have an incentive to buy. It's a win-win and the community is only growing as long as Steem is constantly fine-tuned perhaps the revolution will happen this year. Thanks for the thought-provoking content.
I've just added a post where I notice that the price gap on steem and sbd is closing but what's awesome is that BOTH are up in value, I think this is awesome, also because since sbd is up means that even tiny upvotes are worth real money, I'm loving this!
Yes...it also says that the price of STEEM is rising faster than the price of SDB.
Have no fear, as the price of STEEM grows, all votes carry more weight in dollar terms.
Of course, all pricing on here is in STEEM which means vote values are related only to SP...
I did convert my a few sbds into steem a couple of weeks ago foreseeing this trend, I'm glad I did
I have been converting it as soon as I get it for the most part.
The gap has been closing...taking what I can and powering up.
I am looking forward to the time when Steem moves up or down $10 in a day and it’s just a blip, no big deal.
That would be, maybe 5% to be considered a blip....so a $200 token?....maybe middle of 2019...
Just a guess.
Although in crypto 10% could be considered a blip.
Don’t forget to enter, you won last month’s contest:
https://steemit.com/contest/@preparedwombat/what-will-the-price-of-steem-be-at-the-end-of-january-2018
Gave my bid and a 100% upvote to help increase the pool.
Thanks for the heads up @preparedwombat...
I am still cleaning out my followed list so as to clean up my feed...I miss too many good posts.
I couldn't agree more. The price development is irrelevant to continue to make Steem. Even if we loose 66% market value we would just be where we were a few weeks ago which was also already awesome. So every cent more market value is icing on the cake!
Of course the higher the price the better word-to-mouth will work and more people will join us.
Thanks for the comment @flauwy.
If the price dropped 66% I (and I think many others) would be backing up the truck to buy buy buy.
STEEM would be a steal at those prices.....I do not think we see that area again in terms of the pricing action.
You will love my next post as to why STEEM is a guaranteed winner.
I put you on my Steemify list to know about your new posts right away. You have become one of my favorite Steemians in such a short time. Well done and keep it coming.
I buy Steem at every price with my SBD earnings and I will probably to continue to do so at any price. I am cracking the 10k SP soon I hope.
I just passed 10K a little bit ago and now hit 11K....I am like you...all my SBD gets turned into SP....I havent taken one SP out of this...and I am not going to for a while...like years.
SP is too valuable....especially when the reward pool gets diluted by a couple million new people signing up.
Great analysis..
I feel that even though I'm a little late in the crypto and steem train, I still have an early mover advantage, considering the potential and the possibilities ahead.
Happy new year to you. Wish you great prosperity. And power. Steem Power.
Thanks a lot for discuss about steem..I love steem..Cause steem is to do sure succes i this time...I appreciate to your blog...And...I like this post..Up vote and resteemit done..✌✌✌✌
This is a breakthrough in the blogging community. I have had a little bit of experience writing in Blogger and Wordpress and they had never come close to this amazing platform. I had earned nearly $30 here. Thank you Steemit for helping ordinary people like us.
from my point of view, 20% growth per year is much too conservative. If it spreads enough that you can make ~1000 USD IN THE FIRST MONTH, there'll be more than 2%/month.
I dont disagree with you at all @sco.
My goal here was to establish a baseline that is rather conservative. 20% is almost a no-brainer. But then again, the idea that nothing would change in terms of development throughout the year is also a but crazy.
Yet going to what I view as the worst case scenario, STEEM is still a huge success.
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STOPI liked your worse case scenario and how it show cased the viability of this platform even if it would continue in its current state. I makes that $100/ steem more feasible.
I'm not counting on the price of STEEM going up. I came here because I have some things to say that I want brought to a wider audience and this platform is designed to motivate people to engage with authors.
It's also designed to guarantee inequality growth as people get more crypto just for having crypto. If the price goes to zero, at least we'll still have a decent blogging platform with established communities.
Great post! I like your arguments! I was already a long term believer in the platform and Steem, but even the worst case scenarios are looking pretty darn bullish! Thanks!
Again @taskmaster4450 I can't help but feel I was late for the party... with $4 STEEM I am having a hard time growing my Steem Power... really hard to begin having some weight when the tokens are so much higher than before.
And today they are higher than when you wrote this.
It is all relative.
When STEEM is $16, you will be saying I wish I bought more at $4.
It is how it always works.
Problem is I can only buy more with my income from here Task. No fiat to invest as things are tight.
So, I was powering up nicely and now I'll take double the time T.T
Have no fear @spiritualmax.
It is still the early stages...less than 50K active daily users.
We are going to see a huge increase in the number of users which will dilute the rewards pool.
When you have 300,000 or 500,000 articles a day going up, there will only be a fraction of a SP paid out for most of them...since the authors get 75% of the pool.
However, with so many having STEEM in their wallets, the price will be crazy. 100 SP might be more than most are able to make...yet it could still be worth a ton.
Great article and I agree that 2018 is going to be an amazing year for all of us participating to this genius blockchain.
Great article! Good insight on the future of STEEM! I am very hopeful for 2018 to be a great year!
Nice fantastic post Happy 2018 Contribution comment#
this post very nice..steemit is a great socialnetworking....
$100 STEEM by the end of the year, that will be too good.
Benefit from all sides .....
Go to the worst case scenario and take it from there.
As a baseline, I think STEEM has a very good one...it is easier to move up from here with a little effort.
from any angel you see .... it is definitely gives you some profit ...
essential info about crypto.
very nice post
Nice video sir.My wishes for you are not limited to just the next year. Have a
fun-filled, smashing, rocking and…
Wow, even russian steem golos is in the top 5
What'a great news man,steem are $100 dollar in the year.
It's really best news.
That's a really good news man.steem level up $100 dollar.
Oh! my god i can't believed this.I'm waiting for steem level up dollar.
I will do something good on Steemit, so I am working with my heart. Your articles are very helpful. Thank you for sharing excellent articles with us.
I sure hope you are correct in your predictions. It would make retirement come a lot faster. Thanks for the inspiration.
Your post is dam lucky steem showed 100% gain bang thanks for writing this post @taskmaster4450