STEEM: Whales Are Losing Their Power....The System Is Not Broken...Report through 6/30/2018

in #steem7 years ago (edited)

Today is the start of the #minnowuprising. These are the numbers that we will work from in comparison by month end. I will do periodic updates throughout the month so see how we are doing.

I last reported the numbers in a post that covered through April 30, 2018.

https://steemit.com/steem/@taskmaster4450/steem-whales-are-losing-their-power-the-system-is-not-broken-report-through-5-31-2018

Special thanks to @arcange who runs these numbers everyday.

Now that we are at end of month, time to post the numbers again.

We have 3 months worth of data for analysis purposes to see how the 90 trend might be.

Here is the breakdown.

4/30/2018

The total MVests here is 387,333.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 61.74%
Orcas 17.47%
Dolphins 11.49%
Minnows 5.96%
Red Fish 1.34%
Inactive 1.98%

5/31/2018

The total MVests here is 387,915.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 61.82%
Orcas 16.93%
Dolphins 11.83%
Minnows 6.02%
Red Fish 1.37%
Inactive 2.02%

The change over that time period is as such:

Whales +.13%
Orcas -3.09%
Dolphins +2.96%
Minnows +1.01%
Red Fish +2.24%
Inactive +2.02%

6/30/2018

The total MVests here is 389,911.

On a percentage basis:

Whales 61.44%
Orcas 16.72%
Dolphins 12.24%
Minnows 6.17%
Red Fish 1.31%
Inactive 2.10%

The change over that time period is as such:

Whales -.01%
Orcas -.73%
Dolphins +3.98%
Minnows +2.99%
Red Fish -3.56%
Inactive +4.64%

4/30/2018

5/31/2018

6/30/2018

So what does this all tell us?

To start: THE SYSTEM IS WORKING AS IT IS DESIGNED!!!!

The rich are not getting richer. In fact, more of the pie is going to the smaller accounts.

On April 30, 2018, the Whales and Orcas had 306,820 MVests (79.21% of the total); on May 31, 2018, 305,493 MVests (78.75% of the total)...a decrease of .58%....On June 30, 2018, 304,784 MVests (78.17% of the total)...a decrease of .77%.

Another critical component is that over the last 60 days, the number of MVests for Whales/Orcas decreased by 2,826 while the Dolphins/Minnows increased 4,184. The two middle categories not only gained in terms of percentage, they actually picked up more in terms of total SP.

The final thing that I wanted to mention is this number: 10,333.

That is the total number of people who are Minnow (around 500SP) or above.

My friends, that is called being an early adopter....

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Are whale Losing power or giving it up.

A decrease in SP is a loss of power.

An increase in SP at a rate slower than another category is a loss of power.

I am not sure why you are trying to decipher it any other way.

Well wording is very important here. When someone loses something that means they still wanted ownership and someone else now has it.

When someone gives up owner ship that means they no long wanted it.

The latter is important to take into account because it could be a early sign of a exodus.

Hop this clears up my statement. Though it was pretty clear to begin with.

I thought it was very clear

When someone loses something that means they still wanted ownership and someone else now has it.

Actually, there are other definitions of lose.

  1. to give up; forfeit the possession of:
    ex: to lose a fortune at the gaming table.

http://www.dictionary.com/browse/lose?s=t

So, if you want to be that way, no your use of the word was not clear since there are 9 definitions.

The latter is important to take into account because it could be a early sign of a exodus.

You are right it could be...or it could be a sign of funding other projects...or taking profits....or diversifying into other assets....

I would guess the whales are powering down.

Let the wealth distribution continue... thanks

It will be very exciting to see is the minnouprising project can have an effect on these number in a month from now. It's great to see that the whales are loosing power, but I would love to see it happen a lot faster than the current rate.

There are already numerous minnow projects. So why do you think this one could have a bigger impact?

I have no idea if this project will have a big impact or not. I still like the projects who encourage minnows to get together and create content, which is an overall benefit to the platform as a whole.

Okay my friend. I will be upvoting some minnows this month. I'll be curious to see if we can help to increase the growth and retention rate of the smaller but not tiny accounts.

Really?

Yeah! The system works, that's good news.

Do we know if whales are just selling their steem and perhaps that has accounted for much of the price drop?

If they are selling they lose barely any power while earning quite a something. If they quit selling they might gain more power in 1 month as they lose in a few months. To bad no one analyzed this so far.

good project

I think it's not like a same day of data chart so it market man. what is you think man ?

Its really a informative post for all of us….thanks for sharing

Steemit is a great platform

For MVests,

Dolphins 12.24%
Minnows 6.17%

This might be an interesting relationship to track over time. Right now it’s essentially 2:1 so if we start seeing the ratio dropping below 2 it would be a sign of a broadening of the distribution of Steem Power.

You could be right @preparedwombat.

As the numbers start to expand, there are lots of different way to look at them.

The ratio between D and M....the relationship of those two to the "Upper Class". The percentage of SP tied up in basically dead accounts (does that mean dead SP?).

Lots of ways to look at it. The fact that it is spreading to more than just the upper tier tells me that the more people that are on here and posting, the more of this we will see.

I just graduated to Minnow a few days ago with my last powerup. I had won a big Curie vote and took that and turned it into SP. I am just going to keep plowing everything I earn here into SP.

I think that with consistent effort over time, I will eventually be a dolphin. Of course, I have a life outside of Steemit, so finding the time to devote to this platform takes some doing. But I see the nickels and dimes and occasional whale vote and over time, it adds up.

Thanks for your very encouraging report. I can feel the difference lately when I do vote and get upvotes myself.

I think you have the right approach @digitalfirehose.

Powering up tied to consistent activity will lead to an account growing. It does take time, it is often slow, and feels like little progress is being made. This tends to get discouraging when the price of STEEM is dropping and the rewards were decreased due to the price of SBD moving back towards a dollar.

That all caused people to pull away. It is time for people to realize the ecosystem is shifting if people will get consistent with their activity.

These numbers show it is in a small way.

Thank you. I may be slow, but I'm really patient. :)

It took you about 18 months to gather 500 SP and become a minnow. In this pace it will take an additional 9*18=162 months to become a dolphin. So what's your plan to reach this before 2030?

I'm a slow learner. Most of the stuff that happens here is beyond my control. I will take it as it comes.

Thank you for your encouragement.

This is a great report. I am really glad someone pointed me to it.

The progress is slow, but it is moving forward.

Thank you @whatsup.

And it does tell a different story than is usually promoted on here...that the system is rigged.

Like you said, progress is slow so the pace of change could be complained about...but it is hard to argue that the change is taking place.

Very interesting, I hope the trend continues and we see steem power bring spread to more users.

Just a shame when small account holders get some steem or SBD, the cut and run by selling it on an exchange. That's great for me as I get to pick it up at very low prices, but those same people will moan about not having enough Steem Power to have a say in the system in a few years time.

That makes me 1/5th of the way to becoming a minnow ☺

An excellent analysis! Thanks for sharing, @taskmaster4450.

Or maybe whales are redistribuing their wealth for smaller acounts so its not so visible? In either way, its good to see smaller accounts getting more SP power.

I am still having around 430 STEEM to get to the minnow status, but am confident. Haven't even thought about a supposed time frame to reach that goal as I am just letting things flow. Juts doing my thing and that's it. By the way, I do appreciate that you upvoted some recent posts of mine. In my case every vote counts.
Thanks.

Hi taskmaster. It makes sense as the smaller accounts want to grow and are very active on the platform. Whale activity won't be as busy because their account is more of an investment and don't necessarily need to post or comment regularly.

Another critical component is that over the last 60 days, the number of MVests for Whales/Orcas decreased by 2,826 while the Dolphins/Minnows increased 4,184.

Alternate explanation: some of the whales are cashing out. That's the only way for Vests to decrease, and we know it's happening anyway. That's still good for broadening stake but it's not systematically good for broadening stake. To judge that we'd want to see numbers normalized for buyins and powerdowns.

Isn't the member of Steem per MVests bit changing during the time?

Yes, SP per MVest increases slowly. Vests themselves only change by powering up (including through rewards) or powering down.

Isnt powering down and powering up part of the system?

If 1,000 Minnows and Planktons bought 500 SP apiece, wouldnt that translate into their influence on the STEEM blockchain?

According to your logic, we should pull out all STEEM purchased by people to see where their accounts truly are.

If I gave you $10 and you bought SP with it, and I gave a rich guy $100,000 and he bought a Lamborghini, would you say I was distributing wealth more to the low end because you had 6 SP and he didn't have any? If the system gives whales a whole bunch of money and they then cash it out, it's still giving whales a whole bunch of money.

Yes that is true but once money exits as SP, it is no longer any influence on the STEEM blockhcain.

SP is tied to VP.

If a Orca takes 100K SP and powers down, he is no longer an Orca...he is a dolphin with 25K SP...the other 100K gives him no influence.

Probably the whales are cashing in on the Steem they hold. Would be interesting to see how many of them have powered down a percentage of their holdings.

Remember to consider whales and orcas powering down into dolphins and minnows.

And when they power down, dont they lose that SP influence?

I'm happy to have reached the point where I'm one of the minnows. The last time your report came out I was still one of the redfish. So I know that moving up is possible, it just takes a while. Hopefully I could reach Dolphin in the same time it took me to get to Minnow, but being that it's 9.5x what I just did, I'm not sure that it will happen. I'm still going to work toward it though!

The red fish's still seem to have a very hard time though. Good grief. I have to make another 460 SP happen asap.

Like every month I can write the same reply for this post. Strictly speaking you are right, the whales lost some power. But it is really insignificant.

How many Steem is equal to 1 MVest?

How many Steem is equal to 1 MVest?

A basic to know on this blockchain I surmise.

I bet most readers of your posts are totally clueless.....

Very interesting analysis.

Thanks for taking the time to do these charts and explain it to us all.

I'm a dolphin and got there starting with nothing. Yes, it is painfully slow to grow an account starting at the bottom, but if you give something to the community and focus on growing that it is possible. Hang in there everyone. Be consistent and persistent and you'll see results over time.

I think these numbers can not be interpreted in such a definitive manner as :

To start: THE SYSTEM IS WORKING AS IT IS DESIGNED!!!!

An explanation I could think of :

  • Whales are powering down,
  • Smaller accounts are powering up (or at least not powering down), just natural growth.

Does that mean wealth is getting better distributed ? NO.
We need to look at rewards to see that (the flow) and not the SP in an account (the stock).

Amen, brother. Let’s hope that Steem’s “middle-class” (minnows) and “struggling working class” (plankton) will get stronger this months, thanks to #minnowuprising and #upvoteplankton.

Power to the Minnows! Plankton are your brothers and sisters, support Plankton!

I am getting closer and closer to minnow every day.

I am so happy to be so close.

Thank you for these numbers. Its like I already know but its nice to hear it from someone else.

Did my part of the minnow uprising and post 4 posts yesterday - and it goes without saying that I am always using all my voting power - every day...

Magnificent analysis. Thank you for doing STEEM - better. Good luck to you and Love.

Великолепный анализ. Спасибо, что делаете STEEM – лучше. Удачи Вам и Любви.

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How do you find out if you are a minnow of a dead fish floating in the sea?

Here is the time course of the Steem power distribution. You can see that there was actually only a small period in which the steem power of the whales decreased. After that it remained quite constant. A better distribution of steem power would be desirable.
https://steemit.com/steemit/@sevenseals/steem-power-and-user-accounts-per-level-over-time
Cumulative Steem Power.jpg