So are you saying that you feel increasing the supply of STEEM on the market will increase the number of new investors? IIRC, you've stated repeatedly for months that few new investors existed.
Do you now feel that a lower STEEM price will make new investors suddenly want to grab it up?
Personally, I don't see people saying, "If only the price of STEEM would go lower, then I'd get on board!".
Where were they when the price was at .30 cents? Although debatable, I feel that not that much has changed in the platform between now and then and generally people don't like catching falling knives.
IMHO, a lower priced STEEM will simply be grabbed up by the existing true believer whales at the lower price after selling off their STEEM at a higher price. I'm fairly certain that's what most of us that believe in the platform are doing. But I don't see many big new investors coming on board.
What may be considered "big investors" that are coming on board are simply posting for thousands of dollars per day and powering up or cashing out. I don't see those accounts buying STEEM. In fact, I see them basically defending themselves to anyone questioning them for being here by boasting about how they've put nothing into the system out of their own pocket.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you that the scenario you describe is what "should" happen, if others saw Steemit the way we do, but I am simply pointing out what "is" happening from what I can tell, and the perception of others is usually entirely different from those of us that have been here for a while.
Tuck your words continue to be wise and sharp. I will keep following your commentary wherever it may be~
Thanks~*~
I'm the village idiot. Be careful my friend. ;)
Every single trade has a buyer and a seller. Unless you think that whales are going to buy back their own or other whales' coins (IMO not a chance, and certainly the evidence with 95% of whales powering down doesn't suggest it, but I guess you disagree), any selling by whales can only improve the distribution. Mathematical certainty. It may (and perhaps probably will) happen at lower prices, but it will happen.
If it turns out that you are right and only existing whales want to own this coin, then we are dead. There is no way to improve the distribution it will simply collapse into one big circle jerk singularity. The last remaining whale can autoupvote his own posts all day long.
Also, yes I have said there aren't many new investors. This coin is unfriendly and unappealing to speculators, who are most (but not all) of the investors in the crypto space. Whether that is by design based on an anti-speculator philosophy or an unavoidable side-effect of other design requirements, I can't really say, but it is clear that many speculators pass it over (as they should IMO).
There are some long term investors who appear willing to buy in and power up. I guess we have to hope there are enough of them and they continue to find it attractive. No other practical method of redistribution exists. I debunked the notion of meaningful redistribution via rewards alone over a reasonable time period in another comment here.
Only a whale with little to no belief in the platform (or lacking the funds to do so) would not buy back his/others coins at a lower price. I believe (and again, this is simply my own perception of the current situation), most whales are overtly aware that the price was much higher than it deserved to be (as I've pointed out elsewhere on Steemit) at this early stage due to the FOMO effect combined with a well timed pump capitalizing, like every new coins shrewd investors do, on imprudent investors.
I would have to say, of course they are! Who wouldn't sell at .007-.002 if they perceived, through experience in this cryptocurrency ecosystem, that they could buy back at a fraction of that price in a short period of time? Obtaining the same amount or more coins, while also being able to gain more BTC or fiat currency, is a no-brainer for many.
I would have to surmise that most all of us with any experience in the cryptocurrency ecosystem would, and therefore think that most all of us are doing just that. And in that line of thinking, it ends up being a self-fulfilled prophesy.
If I assume it's going to happen, I must be assuming others are also considering the possibility, and as the number of people who notice the trend accumulate, it happens.
That being said, I would also not have been surprised to see STEEM rise to $10 during it's climb. The problem it encountered was the one you brought up back then and continued to do so for some time, the lack of new investors. And by you bringing up that concise fact, repeatedly, I feel it in itself contributed to many people realizing the time had come to begin selling off to buy lower or otherwise.
I'm not suggesting that you caused the price decline, I'm simply expressing that wise investors reading another wise investor voice that opinion simply reaffirmed their own feelings that the bubble was about to pop. And when that feeling happens, those wise enough tend to want to get out before the others. It's a completely natural cycle as I'm sure you are aware.
lulz, you've summed it up nicely there. Of course I hope that is not the end scenario, but currently I see no evidence to the contrary. There is plenty of time for that to change though. We are in the very early stages of Steemit. One change can at times whip up a frenzy in the masses and new investors come flocking, even if for a quick in-n-out.
Generally when that moment happens it leaves the price 10%-30% higher than it previously was and then the project either continues to build or it goes stagnant and ultimately dies from lack of continued innovation.
I don't think a lack of continued innovation will be the case with Steemit, as testified by my post concerning too many changes too quickly may be a problem. It's a balancing act that no Dev team has yet perfected, and how could they? No one is perfect and no one knows what the others are thinking at any given time. That's what makes this so much fun! :)
We're all just speculating. And at times, people are saying things to make others contemplate what's been said. Those reading others thoughts are left for themselves to judge why anyone is expressing a certain opinion at any given point in time and act accordingly. Gaining as much information as possible from others is never frowned upon. :)
@tuck-fheman
Most whales are highly overinvested. That is why 95% are powering down. They may, at some point after lightening their holdings, buy back at a lower price. That certainly possible. The best thing that can happen is to get that point as quickly as possible, not discourage or avoid the selling that is absolutely necessary to get there and in doing so suffer the many disadvantages of a horribly broken distribution any longer than necessary.
Selling when one is heavily overinvested in a single asset and not buying more is not indicative of having no faith in the platform. Nor does it indicate a desire to sell off ones entire position. Everything in moderation.
I agree with you that there is no lack of innovation, and there may well be a rapid and significant influx of new investors leading to significant price increases including when least expected.
OK. Then what is it indicative of? Do tell.