Haejin - Which Came First - The Predictions Or The Steem? Analysis/Comments Inspired By @berniesanders' Flag Attack on @haejin

in #steem7 years ago

While thinking about @berniesanders' recent post about flagging @haejin, I realised some interesting questions..

In case you didn't notice, bernie and friends have removed well over $1000 USD from @haejin's recent posts through organised downvoting.

Haejin regularly achieves weekly payouts from steemit from self voting alone that are valued at over $10,000 USD - as you can see at Steem Ocean:

haejin.jpg

Questions


Haejin tends to only post about cryptocurrency trends and analysis - with the intention of essentially predicting good investment opportunities. It makes sense that on a platform that rewards the 'brain work' that the network's users want to see, that crypto analysis will be well rewarded - if it is good analysis.

If Haejin's crypto predictions are so valuable, then:

a) He would be making huge money from trading himself.
b) So too will his fans.

So, therefore, question 1 is :

How much money do he and his followers invest in Steem from their trading profits?

Maybe overall his posts would increase the price of Steem and be good for everyone? Assuming that they are truly valuable.

And question 2 is:

If his posts are not valuable and don't produce benefits and don't reflect proof of brain, then why does anyone support or upvote him?

Given that he recently announced he will be participating in the launch of a crypto analysis website (with Tone Vays) - maybe there is something to his advice? While I don't necessarily value Tone Vays advice at all, there are many who do it seems.

Examples


I have picked out some posts from Haejin's recent past at semi-random.. I was just looking for posts that made predictions.

Here's one from 8 days ago in which he said that he thought XVG would increase in price:

https://steemit.com/verge/@haejin/kaboooom-verge-xvg-delivers-408-profit-since-haejin-s-march-10th-analysis-what-s-next

It has, in fact, dropped by about 30% since his post was published.

On this post about Ethereum from 16 days ago - he said that ETH would probably rise around the turn of May - and it actually did (higher than he predicted):

https://steemit.com/ethereum/@haejin/ethereum-eth-five-wave-impulse

In this post about Tenx (PAY) from 24 days ago, he predicted a surge in price during May:

https://steemit.com/tenx/@haejin/tenx-pay-trend-reversal-around-the-corner

Which has not occurred.

This post from 32 days ago on DASH, predicted a price rise in mid to late April, which DID occur - actually a 100% price increase:

https://steemit.com/dash/@haejin/dash-this-way-or-that-way-same-destination

Conclusion


From my brief analysis of Haejin's posts, it seems that there is a (very rough) 50/50 chance of him being right about the predictions he makes. On one level this is not surprising, since markets can really only go up or down (a 50/50 chance either way) - yet it seems that in some cases his patterns may offer some kind of value that is more than just random chance.

How does this work out over time? Would we all be millionaires if we just tested out every prediction he makes in a safe/intelligent way? It would be interesting to see a more thorough examination of the data.

In any case, if Haejin were to actively do something with the money he is receiving, that is obvious to the Steem community - then he would possibly not be the target for such hate. Is that ever likely to happen? There are many here who use what little they have to make a difference in life that serves humanity - it would be great to see that occur with Haejin and maybe even one day have him remove himself from his solid position at the top spot of self voters on Steem.

Wishing you well,

Ura Soul

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There are hundreds of folks not acting as financial advisors yet sure sounding like ones. Why aren't they being flagged into the stone age for the time sensitive crap they are filling up the blockchain with? Who are the greedy ones? Haejin or those that would not even know him but for the transpatency of the blockchain and now project their hate because they feel they know, better, where the rewards should be going.

If he has the stake and is using software features available to him then what the hell?

Where our wagging fingers should be pointing is to those of the sacred 20 which will not push for software fixes to deal with all potential Haejins and not this one account. Even witnesses perform self voting! The flag wars are just pissing contests, in my opinion, that distract from the real issue.... software solutions!

I know, right? If i was being conspiratorial,
Id suggest this haijin flag war is a ruse to hide the real issues. Even so, that's the effect of it anyways.

Steemit shouldn't be this complicated to figure out, but it is.

Excellent comment. This has been pretty much what I've been preaching too. Most of the Reward pool Justice Warriors aren't willing to talk or even think about real protocol changes and opt for completely inefficient and at times completely ineffective solutions. I'm glad that @flagawhale actually had a good conversation with me. You can read the whole thing here:

https://steemit.com/steemit/@everittdmickey/re-lexiconical-flagging-bot-users-arbitrarily-is-like-arresting-those-paying-protection-money-to-the-mob-20180409t223917583z

Glad to see someone thinking about more long term and fair to all solutions. If @haejin was taken down, another would take its place. If whale abuse get noticed, dolphins may still fly under the radar. 100% upvoted for asking for software solutions above all else.

There's a huge thing about it on @pharesim's recent post about @jerrybanfield and Witness voting. You'll see @sircork and @themarkymark pointing out valid points that seem to be brushed aside there.

What @berniesanders (props to him by the way) has done is a work-around and easing the symptoms of an extremely flawed system.

An interesting read. Gave @pharesim @boatymcboatface's vote and will be rethinking my other sacred 20 votes. Thanks for sharing.

 7 years ago  Reveal Comment

We are in agreement that the practise is not the desired one for either of us, @baah. My feeling is that if the software allows undesired behavior than the algoritm(s) needs adjustment. Flag one spammer down and another arises to take their place.

For example, and really only a random example, if the community does not think self voting is desired then restrict it in the software rather than downvoting someone about it. This change is expected in the next fork evidently.

In the same way it is my feeling that many undesired practices could be restricted via software mods.

 7 years ago  Reveal Comment

Thanks for your detailed explanation, @baah. One might aurgue that allowing 10 posts daily instead of 11 is penalizing the inmocent.... yet your point is well taken and seems very valid to me.

Given that he recently announced he will be participating in the launch of a crypto analysis website (with Tone Vays) - maybe there is something to his advice? While I don't necessarily value Tone Vays advice at all, there are many who do it seems.

Nah, I think this is a classic move where they move on to sell "lectures and discourses" at a price to "help" people get rich. Little do they know, Tone Vays, et al. profits off of them instead of actual crypto trading.

I'm willing to bet most people who are fervent supporters have no idea how Steemit works. They see a $200-300 post and they assume it's because it's extremely popular. Little did they know, it's an illusion created by using 2 large votes.

Those 300+ tiny votes don't realize that they probably only attributed to less than $1.50 on his posts.

How come berniesanders has rep -18 but is still trending?

I don't know - maybe posts from accounts with negative rep are not censored if they hit trending..

but how come he gets so many upvotes but rep is not improving? he is negative for months now.

I read that @dan set his rep to be minus 18 somehow (maybe with massive downvotes).. It will take a lot of upvotes to correct that!

okay, is there any page i can read about the beef between @dan and bernie?

You can just search through the steem blockchain around the time period of this post:
https://steemit.com/steemit/@berniesanders/6g6eag-berniesanders-signing-off

This is @berniesanders signing off! :D

I am still trying to figure out how H using bots are profiting him at all, or if it is just from the self votes, and circle jerk votes and the few that vote for him because he is in trending. So far, my experience with bots aren't making much sense, since you lose value throughout the week and any small amount won from the bids seem to also disappear during the payout conversion.

I have not analyzed his wallet yet, and his bid bot bets and payouts, but with my own experience so far, I don't see where the bid bots actually make you money. Not enough to where he is betting as much as he does.

Then add in the flagging, its even worse for H. so why does he do it? I must be missing something...

https://steemit.com/steemit/@miss-j/do-all-bidbots-actually-make-you-lose-money-why-are-50-50-payouts-not-paid-in-50-sbd-50-sbd-worth-of-steem

Thanks @ura-soul for your contribution to the most popular story on steemit.

People are not fighting Haejin for his predictions, but for self voting.

This community wasn't built for that, self voting your posts alone is breaking the rules of this community. We all depend on each other for everything.

I think, people have been warning him for long before they started flagging him. It would be nice if he can be the reason why some people can be happy here too.

Some people supported him when he was growing too. So, it is expected of him to support others too

He can predict whatever he want to predict, I have no issue with that, anybody that find it helpful can follow his predictions, but he need to change.

To be clear, there is no rule about self voting in the terms of conditions of the software here, but yes, there is a need for balanced community and that means helping others.

Thanks for the correction, I'm sure you know that was my intention.... Hug

That will never happen, Haejin is self obsessed maniac who only look at Steemit as money machine.

Someone calculated that you would lose money if you followed Haejin advices. But why would Haejin care?! He only posts to collect money 10 times per day.

Haejin followers in front of homeless shelter 1520574245393.jpg

Few more people who trusted Haejin

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william-leonardjpg-804ee737c647ba7c.jpg

-5d7877aa90a748d7 (1).JPG

Asher had a post about the Haejin the other day talking about his effect in the platform

https://steemit.com/steem/@abh12345/the-haejin-effect

In one of the comments that I left there someone replied that there was an account that was monitoring how effective the TAs of Haejin was and it was this account https://steemit.com/@truthtrader

I admit I was a follower of Haejin at the start in Twitter but never in Steemit because the amount he is getting is just crazy and he just uses it as a cash cow.

I remember Anomadsoul even tried to reason with the guy to at least lessen the self voting.

I don't think that self voting is bad by itself anything above 5% though I have to shake my head and according to his latest data in steemocean he was at 92% and the rest are downvotes to his detractors.

they lost their vote value for the flag attack otherside we minnows are always staying minnows

From my brief analysis of Haejin's posts, it seems that there is a (very rough) 50/50 chance of him being right about the predictions he makes.

I’d draw my conclusion from yours. His predictions are mostly right and he does know a bit about this and I guess that’s the pattern. The source of the hatred is the self upvoting habit , anyone could do it but he’s expected to give more to the community. He might change and he might not .

They lost their vote value i think

big guys are doing flag war with fun. but im get scary when i saw haha

Hello sir @ura-soul, thanks for making the effort and sharing this post with us. There was some issue and a lot of accounts were being flagged. This was really a chaotic situation.
The predictions of the price is good but sometimes it becomes too serious. And we all are so worried because people have invested a lot of money and time in alt coins. We all hope for the best and wait for the world to show us the result.

Coins mentioned in post:

CoinPrice (USD)📈 24h📉 7d
DASHDash444.085$0.48%-6.43%
ETHEthereum750.967$0.52%10.2%
PAYTenX1.378$0.83%-14.0%
STEEMSteem3.512$-2.25%-12.08%
XVGVerge0.076$2.31%-5.43%

crypto's are future..

on a side note, cryptos sucks when you lose your password. haha I wish there would be an easier way then 50 plus character passwords. Steemit alone has like 5 long ass keys, private and public. That along with tons of passowords in general...

good lord. the future is here and its very overwhelming. lol

I only see Haejin as a victim.

Anyone can upvote themselves and I can careless............

It would be interesting to see a more thorough examination of the data.

I personally follow @haejin; because, he admits his work, while informative, is for entertainment purposes only.

I’m glad that you are willing to keep an open mind (lol) that maybe, just maybe, his EW technique has something to it. I find it a bit interesting, to say the least. So must others, since he has a pretty huge following. Certainly, he’s not all of these usernames.

But, overall, this is a great post. I enjoyed the read about his ‘prediction’ success. I stand by my belief, that if ‘he’ wasn’t such a huge investor, the abuse wouldn’t get the recognition that it does. We’re so busy looking at the big corrupt players, that we fail to look at all the little minnows and plankton with their own less than ethical strategies.

For example, I up vote my posts on the 6th day, after watching them collect dust for six days. If we tallied up all of the unethical behavior on the STEEM platforms, we might find that there’s enough to equal @haejin’s reap.

It really all simmers down to "Let he who is without sin, cast the first stone;" at which point I dropped my stone and walked away long ago...lol...(John 8:7).

Of course, where money is involved, and no real ‘rules’ to the game, @haejin may not play fairly; but, he remains within the boundary lines…lol…smh…Oh, I so love Steemit.

Best regards.

Peace.

Thanks @ura-soul for your contribution to the most popular story on steemit.

People are not fighting Haejin for his predictions, but for self voting.

This community wasn't built for that, self voting your posts alone is breaking the rules of this community. We all depend on each other for everything.

Yes the system is open for pump and dump mode and triggers for pushing investors to invest ....

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From my brief analysis of Haejin's posts, it seems that there is a (very rough) 50/50 chance of him being right about the predictions he makes. On one level this is not surprising, since markets can really only go up or down (a 50/50 chance either way) - yet it seems that in some cases his patterns may offer some kind of value that is more than just random chance.
thats true word

Are you serious right now? You can expect to do this and earn through comments. You don’t just copy and paste from the article without quoting or referencing it . Make good and honest comments

 7 years ago (edited) Reveal Comment

This is absolutely correct. A rising market makes everyone look like a genius.

Analysis is a weird game. You can be right only 30% of the time and make tons of money if your money management rules are good.

Is haejin good at TA? No - based on my almost 20 years in the game. The good news is that crypto is an incredibly volatile asset class so it almost doesn't matter. All his recent posts have been RandomCoin up 3498735% since analysis! And I'm thinking yeah... the whole market is up.

He's done a hell of a job of figuring out how to profit from content though.