Great response to my nudge. That's an insane edge though. 3:1 ratio along with 60/70% probability.
Could happen in crypto though. Given it was properly managed after entry and alot more scenarios were taken into account.
Given your stated edge, you must be going in big. Seems like the trade of the year.
Haha I wouldn't say that and remember that is my perceived edge. It's impossible to quantify it exactly with all the variables involved. But when you have a downtrend break, a holding up of the price above support for an extended time, a reset of the technicals on a continuation move like we have here, as well as the positive fundamental factors on your side it is at least a 60% chance of success in my mind.
The biggest issues are always the fake outs on setups like this in my opinion... In general I like to give my stop loss a couple points below the support area to account for fake outs. For example, you often might see a touch of .19 or so on a setup like this only to have it reverse and rip up to .32 leaving you out of the trade.
So, sometimes you have the fake out, lose your 3 ticks, get back in when it holds up to have it run to your target, so you lose the 3 ticks and then gain the 10 ticks on your second entry. So your actual take ends up being closer to 2:1. Does that make sense?
Makes sense to me. Again just probing a little deeper.
The other scenarios I mentioned in my last reply was alluding to the fact of fake breaks and looking at the trade as a 'series' of trades rather than just an overly exaggerated edge. Over a series of trades the edge is much more competitive and brutal.
Please take into account that people are listening to you and respecting what you're saying without understanding the nuances of an experienced trading strategy.
It's very irresponsible to only show one side of the coin, especially in something everyone on this site is vested in and maybe not experienced in... I.e TA
Given your platform on this site I hope you can show both sides of the coin in subsequent posts.
:)
Haha sure. I can try to present both sides a little more objectively in the future. Thanks for tip :)
Appreciate your replies. Looking forward to it.