I made this annotated screenshot about 12 hours ago, but then wasn't sure about posting it as the recovery was looking a bit iffy! But it's now just about back to where it was then.
So, I'm making this post to illustrate and discuss the downward spike on poloniex and the recovery from it (so far) -- and, because a downward spike (preferably with a lot of volume) can be a good indicator for a positive move immediately after. The volume was only moderate on the spike, but higher than it has been in typical recent trading.
I've marked the downward spike with a magenta arrow.
If this spike marks the bottom point on STEEM/BTC that we are going see for a while, then we can look at the fibonacci retrace levels, which I've marked on the graph with blue arrows - as possible targets that the price could recover to, on this bounce. Personally, I like to look for the 50% retrace level, in particular, as a good potential target.
One other indicator of note on this graph is that the 4-hour MACD is looking like it could be about to turn green (marked with a cyan arrow). [Update: it has turned green now.]
On the other hand, I'm still not liking the overall curve on that chart too much, because it's a downward curve!
Finally, lets look at the order book:
This is looking very much better than it was a week ago, because we can see it's now pretty even on each side. Of course, a large part of this is because the price has fallen very significantly during this time.
Will STEEM go up or down from here? I don't know. But these are the charts I've been looking at, to try to decide :)
DISCLAIMER: This post does not constitute any trading advice, and the reader must make up their own mind on any trading decisions.
Things are looking pretty good my friend. Now that some of the uncertainty with Bitcoin has been removed maybe we can unhitch that anchor we have been carrying around the last couple of weeks... blue skies ahead! :)
Thanks for your comment! Today was a good for day for steem :D No idea what tomorrow will bring, but I like your outlook! (Upvote 😀! :) )
Oh wow, thank you! Following you now ;)
"can be a good indicator for a positive move immediately after."
I agree with you..
May also wait for a double bottom, but my point of view, the recovery was over..
Thanks for sharing
Upvoted and resteemed
https://steemit.com/steemit/@lordoftruth/steemit-in-4-simple-steps
Yes.... and great comment. It was a nice looking formation imo - but lack of volume and that sharp downward curve means I think either a lower low or double bottom could be what to look for next as a buying opportunity.
Many thanks!
For now we have to wait as bictoin again above the critical support 2263.00 !!
Thanks for reply
Check this meme please when you have time
https://steemit.com/steemit/@lordoftruth/what-kind-of-steemit-followers-you-have-saf-or-sdf
Checking out now... :)
Thanks for support
Wish you a great sunday
https://steemit.com/steemit/@lordoftruth/steem-trend-contribution-curation-and-promotion-by-all-users-is-needed
Thank you @xaero1, but sorry, I want to ask, why in these few days, I do not see your post posting, are you busy in a few days
Busy, yes.... trading opportunities right now, no time to post! ;)
I hear you, reading charts is very difficult, and if any one tells you that it is easy they might be crazy. Charts are easy to look at after the fact, but in real time can be a little tricky
Wowwwww very amaizing..
Your post is very nice
@xaero
Cheers :)
yep, Your post is very good
Can i be as good as you @xaero1
Your posts are waaaay better than mine! :D
are you kidding me sir @xaero1 :D
No...I am completely serious!
First, I could not write poetry to save myself (think 'Vogon poetry' from the 'the hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy' (you can look it up ;) ) - and second, you can also accompany your post with a beautiful picture of yourself! :)
thank a lot sir @xaero1
You are also amazing
Thanks! ;D
Yeah, I think it's over until Friday...doesn't it seem like every Friday we have a correction?
The charts are not looking too happy today....could be 'blood on the streets' time next :(. But if so, that's a great short term trading opportunity. ETH, in particular looks to me like it might be close to becoming a bit tasty looking!
But in answer to your question, perhaps you are right...my recollection is actually that recently Friday through Saturday are normally more positive that other days. But at this point re. market sentiment, i think it's anyone's guess.
So your TA was on spot ! and maybe we even see a pump due to polo disabled wallets on Steem (AGAIN) , well done! 👌
Hiya, thanks!!
It's a bit out of date now, but it's still holding in the sense that we have not gone lower than that poloniex spike down I pointed out. But if we don't go lower, then I personally will be hoping for steem to get back to up to 50% retrace line marked on that chart. I should post updated version, but the current chart is looking quite positive right this minute I'd say. This is not trading advice of course, just what I'd like to see to improve my bank balance! ;)
I am too old and stubborn for trading advices no worrys , plus always trade by your own responsibility we aren't a kids playground 😉 But yeah Steem holded very well !
From the other hand the problem with steem is when i buy the dip i have hard time to self for profit, just taking my capital back and stockpile some more !
great analisys
From where you learn it
I really want to be great like you @xaero1
Can I get a vote from you a little, so I get more excited in playing steemit :)
Expereience, years ;)
please help me Master @xaero1
https://steemit.com/poetry/@wahyusaputra/miss-you-201782t1566754z
It is not so professional just to drop your link here asking for upvotes :)
Good, good luck
Can i get vote from me, my post weakened ;( @xaero1
good information for me and awesome post
i like it very much @xaero1
awesome
Well thanks :)
WOWOWOW.Good work
Thanks :)
Give me your id chat..i want learn about poloniex, different with bitcoin account
@xaero1
What chat are you refering to? Also not sure I have time for long chats right now....trading, and time is money;)
Very good analysis @xaero1. I personally thinkbthe market got a great shock and it also depends pn what bitcoin is undergoing right now. Provided that on august 1 all being well we could very well see steem reaches 3 to 5us.
Thanks for your comment!
I find it really interesting that something like 9/10 replies are mentioning this august 1st thing. Not sure what that implies, but it must be a good indicator of something! I understand it could have an impact on bitcoin - but if either there is no split, or if segwit gets activated before then via segwit2x...then it should be positive I would expect. But I'm just not sure that a negative scenario would have that much of an impact on the alt-coins - but, we may well soon see!
STAY CLOSER to news.bitcoin.com and thank you
Thanks for the analysis, very educational too!
Thanks!
You are too good for delivering such a great analysis, thanks man.
Hey, thanks!
Very good post upvote and follow. Thank you for your work and for sharing it.
Greez bluchr
Many thanks:)
An amazing analysis, keeps on dying @xaero1
Thanks!
Do you like photos caricature smudge @xaero1 ?
If you like, i can make it @xaero1 ;)
Nice post :)
Follow me @iriana
@xaero1
Good observation @xaero1
good job
Thanks :)
Nice article @xaero1
Please follow me and vote
Well thanks :). I shall take a look.
Technik analysis crypto...??
Yeahhhh just trick and get much money.. Easly ..thank you boss..
Mr.crypto :)
@xaero1
Thanks ;)
Nice post , i like it @xaero1
Cheers
Good post @xaero1
I like post you
I follow you @xaero1
Cool, thanks :)
You are welcome @xaero1
very good analysis @xaero1
Thanks very much :)
Thanks for the info♢!!
Cool if it's of any interest to someone :)
Nice sharing..
I follow u
Plz see n upvote my account @kakilasak
Ok, will take a look. Cheers :)
I think STEEM will surely go up after this meltdown...
nice today all are slightly in green
So great xaero..
Exellent..
I want a resteem your artickle again
@xaero1
;)
Looks like everything will be positive from now!!
I agree, it was looking positive! But today not so much :(. Oh well, the lower the price gets the better a buying opportunity it is :)
NIce, well the worst is hopefully over with losing about $20 Thank god. Hopefully it doesn't go in the negative again.
Hoping so :)
Correction is Over bro! Nice analysis!
I think will go up :D
Thanks very much. We shall see :)
I think this rise in price was just people investing into the market while coins were cheap.
I think in the coming weeks the price will keep decreasing until 1st August but I guess we will have to wait and see.
Thank you for your astounding clear graph!
Thanks very much!
Thanks very much for your kind comment.
The downward curve doesn't look good.
This is true. I think one possibility is we get another slightly lower low but by that point the curve has started to turn, and so is decending more gently. Another possibility is a double bottom, which would also cause the decending curve to flatten out.
Well I wouldn't be surprised if the price will go down, but of course I'm hoping it would go up :) Nothing to worry though, even if the price goes down, it's perfect time to buy.
Cool & thanks for your comment.
all recovered very quickly !! that's good :D
Well, nice bounce at the very least today. I'm not complaining :D
Keep falling,bGreat harvest lol @xaero1
Haha... love that description - harvest! I was harvesting some profits myself, from ETH, today :)
hahahaha Keep watch and we wait for more info master @xaero1 lol
Lol indeed ...haha ;)
Any info why sbd keep going down master @xaero1?
I expect this is because people are panic selling!
But logically they shouldn't, because if the system works correctly, then SBD should eventually be expected to trade around $1 again (once the panic is over!)
This is because the wallet provides a 'convert to STEEM' menu option which should give you around $1's worth of steem in 3.5 days time from when you request the conversion.
But you can read more about this here:
https://steemit.com/faq.html#Will_1_Steem_Dollar_always_be_worth__1_00_USD
So, I personally would never sell SBD for much less than $1, but instead just wait for it to return to roughly this value...or else use the 'convert' function.
I also dont sell, it has been a week more the price down. of course many are panicked. thanks for the advice master @xaero1 ,i will be patient a little more
Greats analysis
Thank for sharing @xaero1
Thank for the upvote on my post. 2sha
You're very welcome :)
Monday is coming.....
can everyone chill out on the 10 second comments tagging the author please it's super cheesey.
I'm new here... I don't even know what the effect of that is? :)
But I agree, no point in just adding cheesy comments... this was an attempt at purely a technical post.
Hahahaha this is chaos, I like this post lol @xaero1 girls are sending you their photos? Sorry. I'm kind of just randomly replying to comments.
Lol, my fault for giving people upvotes :)
Trying to discourage that from now on ;)
You'll also get an award for a number of comments from @diabolika haha. I've never written a lot of comments to a single post before.
Haha!!!
Btw, my other type of posts are meme type things if you hadn't noticed ;)
I thought this was one was quite good (although also a bit edgy :/ )
https://steemit.com/steem/@xaero1/my-technical-analysis-for-the-markets-today-ironic
This is was I mean though when I say that I'm not here for my writing skills ;)
Oh: just thought: if you have been away from civilisation for perhaps the last seven years, you may not be up on 'Game of thrones' references?! ;)
@xaero1, yeah I'm not really into memes so I kind of just letting is roll on my feed lol, but these days I figured out it's time to educate myself about crypto so that's how I landed on this post. I'll probably post about my big regret while I was out and away from this 'civilization'. When I didn't listen to this guy who first told me about btc the first time. That was 3 years ago when i was in a nice beach. I was like bit what to him??? Nevermind. So I was out there amusing myself in places nature and stuff lol.
Yeah, I was not even following Game of Thrones, lol. So I'm also letting it pass. I just came back to the world. ;)
Haha... :)
market was down maybe because of ICO cashing out ether for salary or office stuff , plus uncertainty about bitcoin,
we may see some upward trend then we wait for bitcoin fork
TBH, I think anything that goes up a huge amount is always going to retrace downwards at some point, whatever. There's always going to be people wanting to cash out their profits... and this only stops when equilibrium is reached again between buyers and sellers.
Good work!
Thank you
The cryptocurrency bubble is brewing. with 952 currencies out there, a redefinition is imminent.
But we just had a bubble didn't we? Although, it's possible it's not finished...
Believe me this is not the bubble. the bubble when it comes would send most of the cryptos especially the "funny coins" into oblivion. There are 952 coins out there with many not having a specific use or function but just to catch the trend of the crypto growth and for the initiators to make money. Most of the prices currently are being driven by speculators as against real value and use when they start cutting their loses and taking profit, a domino effect would result and further fall in prices would result and fast.
we must be careful in the choice of coins we by and hold in the mid to long term.
Very good comment, I agree. Thanks!
Listen to my xaero1, please help vote have me, I beg my sad to see him, @xaero
https://steemit.com/poetry/@berdian/love-children-is-not-consideredpoe-201787t234411933z
Im not to sure either. I guess we will find out after August 1st
Personally I wouldn't have thought that would have much impact on the price of STEEM, but we shall see.
I don't know if steem will go up or down either.
Haha... :)
There are arguments for and against in this case. To me that formation is pretty bullish from experience, except that the spike didn't have huge volume. If it had huge volume, I might be less on the fence about it :)
We will see after August 1st.
I appreciate the analysis!
Thanks very much