Two weeks ago I published an index I use to figure out how difficult it is to obtain a “winning post” on steemit. You can look at the concept and the formula on the original post but the idea is simple enough: The index will give you the difficulty of having a post that earns more than 100 SBD on rewards in a 24 hour period.
Back then, Steemit’s Blogging Difficulty Index (SBDI) was 37.61, which meant that 2.658% of all posts published that day were “winning posts”. So let’s see what the SBDI of today is:
3,366 TP / 23 WP = 146.347
146.347 SBDI means that is almost 4 times harder to have a winning post today than 2 weeks ago, there is only 0,68% winning posts on Steemit as I write this.
It is also important to notice that total amount of posts have gone down drastically, two weeks ago we had 4,552 but today only 3,366.
Since the post count is less than what it was back then I can only assume that the main reason for the high difficulty is the decline in steem’s price.
This makes the most sense to me as well.
Have you considered adjusting the WP formula to be a variable? rather than
WP = countif SBD.rewards >= 100to something like
WP = countif VESTS.rewards >= average.SBD.rewardsor some formula based on the average amount people earn on a rolling average.Hey blake! Yeah your formula would be better for seeing posts that are doing above average on the platform, this could be a good reference for bloggers.
Since my index was first created for personal use I only wanted to get an idea of the probability of landing more than 100 SBD on a post. The concept of a "winning post" is subjective since 100 sbd could mean a lot for some bloggers and nothing to others..
Seems like the gravy train days are over... for now. When the Steem price rocketed up to $4, I figured there was no way it would stay like that. Prices in just about any commodity trail down after they spike - that's a lesson I've learned the hard way. I guessed it would stabilise somewhere between $1 and $2... obviously I was a little off there.
The price does seem to be gaining stability though, and the market cap even more so. It might be forming a solid base to take off at a later date... We'll have to wait and see.
Account creations also seem relatively stable over the last 3 weeks, around 1000 a day.
People who love Steemit, really love Steemit... and it's basically the only business in this niche right now. I'd say things are positive for the long term, though it might look a little shaky for now.
do you think the new limited voting change is effecting it?
Whales vote for whales, its an insiders club and we are not in it.
I think that it will, but it remains to be seen. Looking forward to running the index again once the changes are out
so weird how the same people keep having winning post after winning post....heh, right? :)
Well if you have a lot of followers and a lot of SP then you are probably gonna have winning posts
i think it's at the point now where a lot of ppl are just liking big name posts because they want the curation rewards $$/not nec that the post is good or that they even read it... i'll be honest the thought of NOT earning curation has prevented me from voting on posts at times..
that is why the power vote bar is usefull, if you think you wont get any curation from a highly voted post you can just set your power to 1% and vote because you like the content
i wouldn't recommend this. the 1% vote "i like you" is kind of jarring for me. i'd say vote 100% an fcuk the curation rewards if you really like it!
yes, you could also do that if you really like the post
done that on occasion as well! :)
yes i have started doing that! lol :)
I honestly believe your approach is kind of bizzare...your current weekly curation reward is 0.7sbd..that's 56cents at current rate. isn't voting what you really like worth giving up 56 cents?!
i do both! :) Like the comment above stated the power bar helps to adjust so that I can vote on things that I just like that are brand new etc and hey .56 cents is better than nothing - all those years on fb liking stuff i never earned a penny ;)
Where is this power bar thing? I don't seem to have one. Do I need more voting power or something?
The curation rewards are horrible, we'd be better off without them
TP is total posts made today (aka today's posts or TP), correct?
Yes, I use it for Total Post, could be today's post too I guess lol
correct!
Then imagine that in the next few months to come or in the next years to come.
the numbers game
Interesting, I am not very good at math or programming but I do have a ton of experience blogging. One thing I know for sure is that as a platform matures we need to produce better content to rise above the rest.
In the beginning people are very excited but over time they find their tribes and settle down. Over time people will also naturally engage less.
All of this has very little to do with Math or programming but rather good old fashioned human nature. Thanks for the post it really made me think.
@chitty good job. Could you also provide an index of 3 most 'lucrative' posts a day? My impression is that a month ago some posts made 10k+ SBD and now the highest achieved is around 1-2k SBD. It is much more difficult to get 50k SBD in two weeks that some accounts managed to receive in the last months.
Is the amount of Steem distributed each day constant? So should other posts be doing better than they might have? I think a more even distribution would encourage new users.
It doesn't surprise me that activity is dropping. Initial hype can cause a lot of activity, but then people lose interest. We need to find ways to bring in the next 100k users and to keep them here. There have to be clear reasons for them to come to Steemit rather than some other site that may pay. And many are currently happy on sites that don't.
I suspect that if STEEMIT would introduce a 'minimum wage' concept for a post (100 words, original content equals 1 STEEM dollar (SBD)) you would see a large thriving user base in no time ;)
Not sure if that is viable. I think post value should be based on voting, but the sharing needs to give a little more to minnows and less to whales. Otherwise the wealth divide just gets wider, much like our society.
Indeed. I am aware that my suggestion is not viable at all. But 'something' needs to be done to make steemit really viral. I suspect that new joiners are discouraged partially due to low payments and by not being able to find the content they are interested in. Btw. this is my 100th post here and the account is 'worth' 10$, meaning that my average payout is 0.02 (2 cents) ;-)