Steem is catching fire, there is no doubt about that. It's popularity is exploding even though only being announced in March 2016. What's the reason? Rewarding content creators and the community through Steem incentives instead of advertisements. Which brings me to the first reason.
1. The Advertisement Model is Failing
I recently heard about SteemIt, and personally I think it's a great alternative to advertisement based royalties. Not only do I think advertisements are annoying, but most millennials have learned through the early 00's that clicking on an ad is a sure way to get a virus. I can't tell you how many times my wife's grandfather calls me to fix his computer. I ask him what happened, and he says "well I saw this ad to click-here to make my computer faster" ... AHHH facepalm ... "don't do that, Mike!" is my only response. If the above thought is true this implies that not only do people ignore ads, they actively try not to click on them, and they often block them all together. The model is failing, and it's time to look for a replacement, like SteemIt.
2. Virus-Like Network Effect
Steem works similar to a virus in the human body. Every new member creates more content which gets rewarded. People comment on the new content which also gets rewarded. It's a cycle that stimulates content creation and a community. In the process more Steem is being created across the network.
3. Chart Set Up
Just before Ethereum took off into crazy highs it made a pattern that might look familiar to you.
As with any investment, make sure you do your own research and take proper risk management solutions. We could be seeing a setup that get's catapulted to new all time highs.
While I think you are right in your analysis, I believe it will be slightly more drawn out. Times have changed in the crypto world. Hopefully people don't pump and dump, and hold onto the STEEM for the long haul. Ideally they get steempower and the price keeps on tickin' upwards!
Thanks for the post!