Clarification: For checking your wallet almost daily I can say you that the withdrawals done after 5th May are profits done after 5th May as you only let each time between 20 and 30k of STEEM after each withdrawals on your wallet. So we won't fight about this point but I'm not agree with you.... sorry
Q1 & Q2: Ok let's say no one can predict the results but numbers are showing you are too much pessimist to only take into account the house edge as profit for the dividends ;)
Q3 : I let you raise that question to your community (because it is your project after all) but do you think really token holders won't agree to receive more as dividend ?
Because in all the cases, as you said it yourself, the minimum earning for the casino at the long term will be always the house edge, but it is the MINIMUM and this is what you are using to calculate now the dividends for the holders.
=> So we have no risk at all to have a calculation based on the real profit, just the risk to have more dividends. The only negative point will be that some days we won't have anything, but other days will bring much more STEEM and at the end, we will have for sure more dividends. It is just mathematic. If you are fair in your explanations, I have no doubt at all the token owners will go for this new way of calculation of the dividends... The only negative point is that you will earn less at short term but consider also that it should increase the value of your token and I suppose you have many of them aside ;)
Finally, we can see some intersection between our points. Just one point which needs to be added is that there is NO guarantee of income from the second model as we have had long streaks of loss days and the house edge is not MINIMUM earnings because in dice, as said earlier, we have not earned even the house-edge ("MINIMUM" as you call it) if you sum it up until now. To sum it up, we can think about the changes in the dividend model if the community agrees. Also, with the kind of low volumes right now, it would not make a difference if we switch to either of the dividend model because there would be no dividends without any volume. So our target would be to atleast achieve some sustainable volume before deciding any changes.