A Summary of @randowhale: Statistics for Dummies

in #steemit8 years ago (edited)

So, @randowhale is the big new thing - you pay two bucks, he upvotes your post with a random voting power from 2% to 50% (currently his account has a total of 630,685 Steem, delegated from several whales) and you get rich, right?

randowhale.png

Sounds like a plan. So I decided to start spending my cash for upvotes, but for the sake of accountability, I've written down all transactions and calculated my profit. Here we go - terminology first:

  • Upvoted amount (SBD): The cash I've received from @randowhale
  • Percent upvote: What percentage of voting power @randowhale used to upvote my post
  • Voting power: What was the total voting power of @randowhale, at the time of him upvoting my post
  • 75% for Author: My income from @randowhale's upvote (the other 25% are for anyone else, including @randowhale, who have upvoted my post)
  • Net profit (-2 SBD): Total profit on this post, that I will receive in a week. I subtract @randowhale's fee for upvoting my content, from my 75% income. The reason is that anyone who has upvoted, including @randowhale, do not pay their 25% of the 2 SBD fee, so this is my expense alone.
Upvote amount (SBD)Percent UpvoteVoting Power75% for AuthorNet profit (-2 SBD)
7.0543%47.7%5.293.29
5.6335%47.7%4.222.22
7.6141%47.7%5.703.70
0.542%47.66%0.43-1.57
8.8944%43.23%6.674.67
6.4526%43.75%4.842.84
7.5850%43.75%5.683.68
1.037%39.44%0.77-1.23
0.493%39.47%0.37-1.63
1.7213%40.01%1.29-0.71
1.039%40.01%0.77-1.23
3.827%40.4%2.850.85
1.3110%39.84%0.98-1.02
2.8931%39.84%2.170.17
4.8137%36.31%3.601.60
2.6824%36.36%2.010.01
1.715%36.36%1.280.72
1.5415%36.58%1.15-0.85
4.5146%33.21%3.381.38
0.927%33.57%0.69-1.31
2.6729%33.46%20
0.435%33.61%0.32-1.68
0.598%35.13%0.44-1.56
3.6938%35.16%2.770.77
4.0636%35.46%3.041.04

Per post statistics:

Average upvoted amount in SBD: 3.35
Average upvote percent: 24.04%
Average Steem Power: 39.43%
Average author income: 2.51
Average NET author profit: 0.51

TOTAL AUTHOR PROFIT (Sample of 25 posts): 14.15 SBD

Conclusion: After reading my detailed statistics, some of you have already made up your mind. At 0.51 SBD average income per post, I would say that the long procedure of carefully filling up the Send form in your wallet and copy pasting the active key is not really worth it. Especially since the return of investment kept diminishing with the upvoting power of @randowhale, who became more and more popular with folks, whose strong suit isn't really mathematics.

At this point in time, I see only one reason to use @randowhale's services - to throw in a couple of cents on your newly posted content, which would attract the attention of the mindless curators, who upvote (without opening) anything in the "new" tab, which has gathered some cash in the first seconds after it's published. I've actually tried this tactic and it sometimes works - although at a loss, as you might pay @randowhale more than you actually make on this post.

I hope that was useful - I'll be grateful for an upvote and a resteem, if you found this article useful! And do check out @randowhale's upvote on this article! ;)


Check out some of my previous posts:

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Wow thanks this is very useful and i just reblog and hope others will see it. And maybe i should make similar post just for comparison. Yes 0.58 seems low but it is still positive so i guess it is all good. And it might help your post get some attention to have a potential upvote more than it usually to be.

Do consider that the lower his voting power, the less the average income will be (unless he receives more delegated Steam Power from other whales).

Many thanks, i will definitely check his voting power and his delegate power at the same time. Any more way of strategy you would do to get more upvote.i have also joined the minnowsupport project that you see get some upvote. Maybe you may check it out sometime :)

Maybe I should, thank you for the information!

A lot of people are buying upvotes atm. And more so during these down times. It is not a totally useless strategy, but should it be done right now when the SP is so low and the reward pools are so drained?

There is a huge discussion on this thread. Come and give your point of view :)

https://steemit.com/steemit/@yoda1917/randowhale-booster-worldclassplayer-users-just-halt-for-a-moment

This post received a 14% upvote from @randowhale thanks to @dek! For more information, click here!

Thanks for the $1.31! That's $0.98 for me or a total of -$1.02 profit!

If you waited until your post had a "potential payout" of $10, his 14% vote would have added closer to $3.

I probably get an average of under a dollar on my posts, so waiting for $10 is not really an option :) See my other reply to you!

Awesome post, Ive been thinking about this new service for a few days but have not used it so far. Im just watching how it goes for now, Have a great day @dek

It's worth it, if @randowhale's voting power is around 45% and up. Another option is for whales to delegate more Steam Power to his account, so his upvotes are worth more.

As it stands right now, I wouldn't recommend his service.

Well just for fun I just tried it for the first time, see how it goes :)

At 41% you got lucky - that's a good hit :)

Nice :) It went up 3.60$ but its still early after posting

What you got from him is 3.60 and that's it. Why would you think it would go higher?

Making future upvotes worth more Is my thinking

A lot of people are buying upvotes atm. And more so during these down times. It is not a totally useless strategy, but should it be done right now when the SP is so low and the reward pools are so drained?

There is a huge discussion on this thread. Come and give your point of view :)

https://steemit.com/steemit/@yoda1917/randowhale-booster-worldclassplayer-users-just-halt-for-a-moment

@dek I have always wandered about how randowhale works and if it is worth it. Do you pay 2SBD every time to get an upvote from randowhale?

You pay 2 SBD everytime you want randowhale to upvote your article. And you may or may not get them back.

Yeah, it it probably not worth it at the moment

If he gets more Steem Power from other whales (through delegation), maybe it will be worth it, once again.

@dek
Thank you for this informative post. I appreciate the facts that you have presented to us. I had been thinking about this for a while now.
But, to me, it takes out the fun of choosing and upvoting what interests me and other Steemit members. This is to be a fun community and enjoyable to anyone who participates. Huge world out there. Who knows what surprise comes along next? When I post some content, being a newbie, generally there isn't a lot of excitement on my blog.
But, from time to time, I am pleasantly surprised. And that is worth something to me. The times and moments when I say, "wow, now that makes it all worth it."
Anyway, that is how I think about my upvote privilege. Too much is given away for me to have someone else do what I can do for myself. I love the anticipation of the next big surprise.
Thank you for confirming.

Francis

Excellent reply. I wish most people think like that. Most people are here for the money, of course! :)

Thank you!

A lot of people are buying upvotes atm. And more so during these down times. It is not a totally useless strategy, but should it be done right now when the SP is so low and the reward pools are so drained?

There is a huge discussion on this thread. Come and give your point of view :)

https://steemit.com/steemit/@yoda1917/randowhale-booster-worldclassplayer-users-just-halt-for-a-moment

Thanks for the stats...

No problem!

The thing you're not calculating for is initial post value. As part of #payitforward, I've sent out close to 50 @randowhale votes to people, and the ones that already have a "potential payout" of say $100+ will get a boost of $10-30, while one that's valued at, say $5 is really never going to get more than $5, and usually much less.

It's best as a win-more in gaming terms.

For the calculations above, I subtracted randowhale's upvote amount from what my post already had.

Yes, apparently the more cash a post has, the higher the income from each consecutive upvote. However, there are three things to consider.

  • Minnows don't get a lot of cash on their posts, so randowhale can't help them much.
  • A randowhale vote on a post with a reward of several hundred dollars is higher in absolute terms (10 bucks is not a bad tip, even if the payout is $300), but how many posts get high payout? Maybe one percent of everything posted?
  • The new hard fork will (supposedly) remove this mechanism. An upvote will give the same amount, regardless of the already accrued income on the post.

A lot of people are buying upvotes atm. And more so during these down times. It is not a totally useless strategy, but should it be done right now when the SP is so low and the reward pools are so drained?

There is a huge discussion on this thread. Come and give your point of view :)

https://steemit.com/steemit/@yoda1917/randowhale-booster-worldclassplayer-users-just-halt-for-a-moment

Don't underestimate the parabolic growth ...

If you had more votes the impact of randowhale would be much higher.

"Parabolic growth"? Please, explain.

At this moment ( soon to be changed - on tuesday to be exact ) the rewards get calculated with rshares².

No, no. Please explain why other upvotes change how much I get from randowhale?

Because, the power of votes get squared to calculate the rewards. ( n^2 )

Explain it like I am a five-year-old.

The author gets 75%, curators get 25%. How are the rewards for the author and curators then calculated? Do you have a link to this information, it's quite interesting.

It's not like:

more votes -> more reward

but

more votes -> more rewards * more rewards

Use it only for the posts above 10$, you will get 6$ on average from it. Do not use it on lower payout posts.

Ok try it

1.8$ For 1$ its nice!!

This post received a 2% upvote from @randowhale thanks to @tibizness! For more information, click here!

This post received a 3.5% upvote from @randowhale thanks to @tibizness! For more information, click here!

I fail to see the connection between the cash I receive from @randowhale's upvote and the total cash I received from other upvotes. Please, explain.

I check it just after its upvote, that gives me an estimated amount.

So did I - so here are the statistics for 25 posts in total (26 if you count his upvote on this post).

Very useful information! Thank you!

test 2

This post received a 2.3% upvote from @randowhale thanks to @tibizness! For more information, click here!

ok is a joke lol

This post received a 3% upvote from @randowhale thanks to @tibizness! For more information, click here!

No problem. Now that we are past the hard fork, I expect randowhale to be out of voting power really fast - I see that he adjusted from 2%-50% to 1%-5%, but he is still at 30% voting power, which is quite small. It'll be interesting if he manages to adjust to the new rules.

A lot of people are buying upvotes atm. And more so during these down times. It is not a totally useless strategy, but should it be done right now when the SP is so low and the reward pools are so drained?

There is a huge discussion on this thread. Come and give your point of view :)

https://steemit.com/steemit/@yoda1917/randowhale-booster-worldclassplayer-users-just-halt-for-a-moment

I'll look into it, thanks!