Gotcha. There's a definite possibility that what you say is going to happen.
Is it the "most likely possibility"? I don't even know how one would approach answering that, especially with such limited trading history on Steem.
As I alluded to in my post, even at 33% chance of turning at the current price range, I like my trade.
There cranking out too many Steem for the market to absorb. The are thousands of posts a day, but only a few make any money. This is discouraging the minnows, steem needs to distribute better the power if it wants to increase it's base.