I analyzed the most popular posts (as opposed to the most rewarded) https://steemit.com/steemit/@jl777/want-to-see-the-top-posts-in-last-24-hours-rank-calculated-by-minnow-1-dolphin-2-whale-3-megawhale-4
tl:dr is that they have a very large overlap and dolphins are the most active in absolute terms and way off the charts in relative terms. What this means is write posts that dolphins like and it is a matter of time it will be discovered by whales.
also, there is a high variance in outcomes, like a lottery in some aspects. Today I had a $6 post and a $1000+ so in some ways it is a numbers game