The number of steems that will need to be sold to pay for SteemFest (beyond event costs ... think about all of the people cashing out to pay for travel, accommodations, etc.) seems capable of accounting for 10-20% of this current volume (and perhaps more, if major stakeholders are getting positioned to bring in new big investors).
I expect the token price to bottom out as SteemFest begins. If the event goes off without a hitch and effectively garners public attention/excitement, I imagine we'll see a nice bump up in the token price, followed by crazy volatility, followed by a slow ramp up beginning around the end of the calendar year as improvements to the site and new projects are rolled out.