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Hey @neoxian, thanks for your insight and the debate on steemit.chat...

Your formula is more straight forward and is highly dependant on Steem price, but I think it is important to get a feel of the likelihood of getting a "winning post" as this would be more useful to bloggers who expect returns.

What the variable WP tries to achieve is to show how difficult it is to get a meaningful reward. The problem with my formula is that a "meaningful" reward is subjective and therefore hard to determine, 100 SBD is not the same in sweden as it is in Venezuela, so yeah your formula is definitely more precise.

Steem rewards are not as exact as Bitcoin mining rewards, the probability of getting rewards will not only depend on this index but also on your ability to write well and your digital marketing skills... In this sense the Blogging Difficulty Index is just one of the factors that will influence your success on the platform.

I just realized my formula doesn't take into account the 4 post limit though.