The numbers are wack...there are not as many active account in fact. that being said, it is hard for whales to catch all of course. but LUCK? I wouldn't put that first..
https://steemit.com/steemit/@razvanelulmarin/is-steemit-a-lottery
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The numbers of active whale accounts might be incorrect, I'm aware of that. It was just a guess. However, you say that you wouldn't put luck first..
You'll obviously need to create good content.. But good content varies from the eyes of the beholder. Having luck is one thing that doesn't change. No matter how many posts you publish and how many good posts you write, you'll still need to have luck. Especially as steemit is a "lottery" as you've explain in the post you've shared. - If you don't play the game, then you'll have zero chance to win. If you play, and the more times you play, you'll increase your chances of winning. - That's gambling in a nutshell.
Before luck, you'll obviously need to publish good posts. That's the entry ticket to the "lottery".. Without good content you'll not be able to participate in the lottery.. But once you're in, then you'll need luck. :)
That's my 2 cents at least.