Like I said, I haven't really worked it out yet. It's not as simple as $ spent on votes vs $ paid out though. The bid-bots often pay out more in votes than people bid in any given day. But, the curation rewards they collect can be considerable - @buildawhale collected approximately 1000 SP in the past week.
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Your explanation is more detailed, but it supports the pyramid scheme theory above.
Money is flowing from the small investors to big investors through post and curation rewards.
The quality of posts is just a marginal factor. The main factor is the share of a user in the voting power.
I think @themarkymark's comment shows why I shouldn't be giving advice in this area yet!
No, on the contrary! I appreciate your contribution.
I wouldn't be able to find those links without your comments.
This is how we find the truth by discussing. That's why I invited feedback at the end, because I'm not sure 100% what's going on here either.