Arsene Wenger, Warren Buffett and former Wallaby, Ben Darwin, all have one thing in common. This successful bunch believe in continuity.
The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines continuity as an 'uninterrupted duration of connection, succession or union without essential change.' So what does this have to do with sport prediction? For anyone unaware, elite sporting clubs have taken to data analysis like a pig to mud. Data analysis can help objectively determine who is performing to the required standard, which junior is worth pursuing and what function of the team requires urgent improvement. It's a function of sport that was not present to the majority of clubs as little as fifteen years ago. Alas, Billy Beane, manager of the Oakland Athletics was able to outperform his opponents such as the New York Yankees with a shoe string budget during the early noughties. However, in such an evolving and growing industry, new lessons are being continuously learnt. One such lesson is the propensity for clubs to outperform their particular qualities when a level of consistency exists with player selection and integration.
Arsene Wenger, the Arsenal manager for the past twenty years, has been a strong believer in squad continuity. As the transfer market continues to steam forward, Wenger remains steadfast in his beliefs. Asked last week how many players he planned to sign for the upcoming season, Arsene responded with a maximum of three. This is an annual affair, with Wenger maintaining that further changes will have a destabilising effect. Not dissimilarly, Warren Buffett is known to avoid any alterations to companies he purchases. With the evolution of data, we now have substance to drive these concepts.
The theory is basic. Clubs will improve based upon the time spent plying their trade together in the heat of battle. If the same players can remain on the park together for a prolonged succession of weeks, months or years, this will have a monumental effect on their ability to win. A good example of this is the teenage led Manchester United 'class of 92' squad. Six of the starting eleven were still teenagers when they managed to win the Premier League of that year. To put age into context, the expected peak age of a footballer ranges around 27-28 (a tad older for central defenders and goalkeepers). This was a remarkable achievement. This was also an achievement based on continuity of play for a sustained period of time. The likes of Beckham, Scholes, Giggs and the Neville brothers played for over three years together as they developed in the academy side. This match to match consistency enabled for the development and understanding of the movements of each teammate and an enhanced kinship from player to player.
Data analytics company Gain Line, run by aforementioned Ben Darwin and colleague Simon Strachan, have been able to pick various seemingly random results, epitomised by ranking Leicester as a title chance at the beginning of the 15/16 campaign. These predictions are based on their performance index, based on the measurements of team cohesion over various time periods.
So all this information has me thinking. Is there an underlying message to learn. Sport can often be a dynamic reflection of the human complexion. Stress can lead to poor performance, such as missing a penalty. Winning and losing can be met by tears. So if sport does provide a reflection of us as a species, what can we derive? The underlying message for me is that continuity and consistency over a sustained period of time will eventually lead to success. That is a very basic message and of course there are certain dynamics that can affect your success, such as poor practices or a lack of drive.
Recognising this information may help stimulate your business, relationships or self development. For my personal self, I'll always look to identify patterns of continuity in anything that I choose to invest in. This logic is likely to see me shy away from ICOs. How will you use this knowledge?
To investigate the info further read this article by the Financial Review!
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