Why VR's success is years away

in #steemit8 years ago

Billions of dollars have been poured into VR by Facebook, Google, Microsoft and more. But it remains a fringe technology, embraced by well-heeled enthuiasts, but making no inroads with the mass of consumers.
There isn't just one problem, there's several. Getting all systems to go is going to take years.
Cost

All in, you're talking at least $2k for a notebook-based VR system. And if you like to future proof, more like $3k. That's not money Mom and Dad Public will lay down for Junior's birthday present.
Look and feel

The headsets are bulky and far from stylish, but OK. Bigger problem, VR makes some people sick, and others can only handle it for a few minutes.
Roller coasters have the same problem, but they don't cost $2k to ride.
Specs

The current 2160x1200 (2k) displays on the Rift and Vive aren't good enough for immersive play. But 4k displays are even more expensive.
Further, as I've pointed out, 4k VR requires upwards of 10GB/sec of bandwidth to the displays. That requires a more powerful storage system than is readily available today, let alone affordable.9810e035cd17c2cefe26b9da97224abf.png

In five years we'll have consumer notebooks and Ultrabooks with the graphics grunt and bandwidth to handle 4k VR, and the headsets will be lighter, cheaper, and the displays more lifelike. That will dramatically reduce the VR tax, expanding the market, and the virtuous cycle of mass production driving down prices will have a chance to work its magic.
In the meantime, VR will find niches in science, medicine and entertainment. Augmented Reality, with lower costs and technical requirements, is where investment dollars will focus. VR won't die, but the entire supporting infrastructure needs a couple of tech generations to improve in cost and performance.

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