This may change as the user base grows and evolves. A lot of the value on reddit is finding and posting interesting links, not the long-form stuff that gets the most votes here now. Also, more comments and votes on comments will change things. (If you post a link and it gets hundreds of comments, with many of those comments getting votes, a lot of that value will flow up to the original post.)
But we don't know how steem is going evolve. Will it be more of a blogging platform or more link sharing and discussion, or both. That will drive what sort of posts get paid.
Yes, I think it will change. There are plenty of obscure reddit subs that do just fine. People on there get "rewarded" (though they work for free) finding good links also. It will happen here, too, but the evolution will take time. In my mind, the so-called "circle jerk" postings so far are not just that; they are defining and exploring the attributes and possibilities of Steemit. As more people understand what it is and how to use it for fun and profit, the action will move into different areas. We've already seen the big expansion of the introduceyourself tag this weekend, which is very encouraging. If new users continue to come in and continue to post, a lot of topics will build up and people will gravitate towards the ones that fit their interests. Plus, the voting power should be much more spread out by next month.
Everything is new about steemit. A lot will change. There are many good opportunities to make money as early adopter. I hope I will seize a few before and after july 4th.