I think you are partly right. So there is an additional variable to take into account as well and is the number of people upvoting the same post.
If you use a bot in order to upvote automatically authors with a high number of upvoters, the curation that you receive is very little since you have to divide the amount destined for curators between the number of upvoters as well.
BTW, good post.
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True, I think that perhaps those on the lower end of the food chain as of yet do not realize how low curation rewards are for an account with under 1000sp.. accordingly they upovote in the hopes of getting a winning lottery ticket that will never actually pay.