I'm pretty sure if its designed so that if your posts average about the same quality then you don't lose much. It's mostly to penalize people posting a bunch of things hoping to hit gold with one of them.
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Quote from Dan "Summarizing the impact of this change.... anyone who makes posts of similar quality can post as often as they like without impacting their bottom line. Anyone who has a high degree of variance will find their high payout posts penalized if they post more frequently than once per day." Found here https://github.com/steemit/steem/issues/176 edit*---- sorry I guess you might have already seen this since it's linked in your post
Thank you for the contribution. It's unclear to me whether Dan's ideas made it into the final model they use to determine rewards penalties. Dan's original post seems to advocate a different system than what was eventually accepted.
See a couple posts down where mvandeberg says, "This is the logic we will be using." He describes the 4-post rule and penalties, which seem to be based on author-agnostic, absolute numbers.
As if posting a bunch of things hoping to hit gold with one of them is a bad thing.