Fingers crossed you are right on steem price - I am not that confident currently hoping I am wrong though :-)
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Fingers crossed you are right on steem price - I am not that confident currently hoping I am wrong though :-)
Well, although many would like to negate that, and no matter if we like it or not, but the fact is that STEEM is somewhat following the price of BTC.
In fact, every crypto coin out there (as they are all built on blockchain technology, and) no matter which algorithm each of them uses, as well as what kind of improvements has been implemented, is affected by BTC behavior on the market.
There is another funny thing that I noticed in the relation of BTC with other coins (including Steem).
When BTC goes down, all of them go down but when BTC goes up not every coin follows that path or at least they don't follow that upward trend that fast, while some even have very tough experience in reaching back the stage where from they dropped down.
Lucky for us (especially when recovery back uptrend is in question), STEEM is not one of them. It follows BTC quite closely and quickly in both directions! (That's at least my observation.)
Therefore, we have here two main factors that influence the Steem price!
From my point of view, we can't do anything or at least not something significant to entirely remove the first factor. But we can do a lot to influence the second factor(s) which in return may even result in lowering the impact of the first (BTC) factor, especially when the BTC price drops down what Steemit already did in some portion as otherwise, we would still face the price of 1 STEEM = $0.10.
(At the beginning of 2017 BTC was around $800 and now is around $8,000 what is 10x growth. In the same time frame, Steem went from around $0.10 at the beginning of 2017 up to current about $2 what is 20x growth. In my opinion that additional 10x growth - bigger than BTC has - is influenced and caused only by that second factor I just described above.)
However and no matter why and what kind of mumbo-jumbo the big players behind BTC are performing right now (including the recent "VISA show" making it way more difficult for the whole crypto world to bring the value of the possessing coins into the real world), I don't think BTC would stay in its current down forever. Accordingly, neither would Steem!
My personal predictions (which, of course, might be entirely wrong, but...) are that BTC will return back to about $9,500 in the following 15 to 25 days or the latest by the end of May. As well, I think that the next increase (in between $12,000 and $15,000) we might see by the end of July or at latest by the end of September / beginning of October.
Tracing more or less the same path, I believe Steem might go up to $2.5 or even $3 for the first (BTC) increase period and back to $4 or even $5 during the second (BTC) increase period.
As well, Steem could perform better or worse during those periods but that would depend only on the Steemit, Inc. management team, our witnesses, and developers, and also the whole rest of us.
The only serious threat that may screw us all, I see in some new (non-blockchain based) technology like DAG (directed acyclic graph) is or might be, as something like that would open another entirely new crypto world with some new coins, and on which technology some new Steemit alike platforms could be built. But I don't think it would happen this year. From my point of view, in the second half of 2019 and in 2020 we might expect this to start happening.
That's how I see it, and until then we have about 700 articles to publish if we are going to post daily. 😉
Sure BTC affects the price - recently Steem declines over average vs the other coins. The second factor is the one that worries me a lot based on what happens here and what is not happening on the blockchain