I actually think it can... Not saying that it will be, but I am very skeptical.
I am definitely not as convinced as some others are, that this HF will counter bid bots and bring back a lot of manual curation again. I am also skeptical due to the statement within the official announcement.
"The rewards curve is changing. We expect posts that would make more than 20 STEEM under the old rules to earn more after the changes. Those posts that would have made less than 20 STEEM under the old rules will receive less after the changes."
I hope I am wrong, but this sounds like the exact opposite of what we should have done. At least in terms of on boarding new people and to keep our newcomers.
Time will tell.
They chose a different approach. I am not sure yet if it is a wise one, but it could be...
I think they want to cater to the investors first, then get everyone and their uncle on board.
This HF is clearly hurting onboarding new small accounts and it is done on purpose.
We need to push the price up to get FOMO again, then they can proceed with exponential growth of the userbase. Imagine if Steem is worth 10$ for a prolonged period of time because investors love the coin. Every small account >500 SP will be able to make a decent buck.
Yeah, I hear you. However, I don't think that is possible as long as @steemit continues to power down more than 325K per week. I might be wrong though.
Also, even though I can see how this potentially could benefit us in the long haul, I think it's likely to do more harm than good, as the existing Steemians, especially "wealthier" accounts that already have a decent amount of SP will continue to grow larger, in an even faster pace than before due to reward changes, long before onboarding of new users would begin... And that usually doesn't look good.
Those are often the typical "red flags" that makes people anxious and skeptical, which ultimately would become the biggest obstacles for us to get new people to join. And truth to be told, one of the biggest (if not the biggest) problem we have right now, before HF21, is that newcomers leave when they struggle to earn...
That being said, I hope I am wrong, and I truly hope that HF21 will be as good as many people claims it to be.
I don't think the rich getting richer is a problem in the short term. It just should not stay this way in the long run.
Why do I think this? In the last year, whales and orcas lost a combined 25% in terms of steem holdings to dolphins and minnows. That means reverting this change will not be a problem in the short term (1 year).
Taskmaster and others have shown countless times that the distribution of steem was working under HF20 rules. Tomorrows changes might revert this, at least in the short term.
Valid concerns @hitmeasap.
I do believe some of the counter effects, if they reveal themselves as you mentioned, can be offset via SE and, in another 6-7 months, with SMTs.
Rewards are rewards and people can swap those other tokens for STEEM which can be them powered up.
That said, I agree with you. It seems counter-intuitive to how things should go. I worry the smaller accounts will get fried in this but we shall see.
Maybe the math does, indeed, work out better for all involved.
Yeah, hopefully people will truly realize how tribes and communities can and eventually will have a great positive impact on Steem in general, with tokens and all.
Who knows, this might be exactly what we are looking for, so I try to stay positive... But I remember the results of the previous HF's so I remain skeptical.
Would be really cool to see more manual curation again, that would certainly boost the rewards for some authors. Not so sure if it works in the long haul though, as people are used to be passive or non-active and still earn a bunch due to auto-votes and delegations.
Let's hope for the best.