Weekly
The market has continued to spill blood as the sellers remain fully in control. At times like these, it is best to zoom out and evaluate the overall situation. Here in the weekly, I have plotted Fibonacci levels on a log scale from the top of the bull run at around $20,000 USD down to the low of the beginning of the bull run back in 2015 at a mere $160 USD. Remember when BTC was only $160?
The resulting lines proved interesting as price action in the bear trend seemed to follow these levels to an extent. The critical level to look at here is the last visible Fib line at ~$4800. This is a last line of solid defense should we print a new lower low under $5800.
If this run up to $20,000 USD wants to act as the previous bull run, we are in for far more devastation.
The bull run in 2013 led us up to a price of $1200 USD, where we then endured nearly two years of a bear market down to the measly $160 USD. That is an 86% retrace.
If we repeat an 86% retrace, this would place us at roughly $2800 USD which is why some traders are calling for a $3000 USD price range.
This is not to say BTC will not go down fighting. We may have a few mini bullruns here and there, but this is the current overall trend and we mustn't ignore it.
Stoch and RSI are in a neutral zone with a bearish cross for Stoch. I fear we may see true capitulation soon.
Daily
The main goal right now is to not print a lower low below $6100 USD. My previous suggestion of $6800 as a support was broken after a slight bounce and a double rejection off the Kijun.
We have bounced just above closing to a lower low. Should we make a lower low, look to the yellow zone for possible buy-ins.
Stoch remains heavily oversold which RSI hovers above oversold.
4 Hour
As stated, we want to remain above this yellow zone to prevent a lower low. Stoch and RSI are well oversold and warrant the possibility of a bounce here, but does not guarantee it.
Fight back bulls!
Posted from my blog with SteemPress : http://coinsholar.vornix.blog/2018/08/09/btc-usd-update-if-we-lose-5800-we-may-go-to-4800/
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