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Welcome back to our ongoing build-up to the 2018 College Football season which is now just a week away! Next Saturday there are four games to kickoff the college football season, and while none of them may be considered 'marque' games, they none-the-less signal the start of the greatest time of year - football season! We are focusing on Conference USA today, one of the "group of 5" conferences, and even though this conference won't get much national exposure, there are some sleepers in this conference that could have surprisingly good seasons.
When forecasting Conference USA, it all starts with Florida Atlantic. The Owls won a school-record 11 games in Lane Kiffin's first season at the helm. The Lane Train looks like it will pickup where it left off a season ago, as they return preseason 2nd-team All-American Devin Singletary at HB, who was one of the best running backs in the nation a year ago, racking up 1,918 yards and 32 touchdowns on the ground. Singletary's presence in the backfield should help ease the transition to a new QB, and makeup for some losses at wide receiver.
The defense should be the best in the conference, as FAU returns 10 starters on that side of the ball, led by a pair of All-American candidates in LB Azeez Al-Shaair (146 tot tkls, 10.0FL, 2.5sks in 17') and S Jalen Young (77 tot tkls, 2.5FL, 7INTs, 1FF in 17'). Al-Shaair led the conference in tackles and Young led the conference in INTs and both should be major impact-players on the defensive side.
The Owls open with a very tough road game in Norman, OK against preseason AP # 5 Oklahoma. OU will be breaking in a new QB, so FAU has a chance at an upset in the opener, albeit a small one. Florida Atlantic is good enough defensively though to be able to hold the Sooners in-check and make it a game. As for the rest of the schedule, conference games @ Middle Tennessee and Marshall won't be easy, and the game @ UCF (unbeaten last year) on Sept. 21st could have a huge impact on determining who the "group of 5" representative will be in the "New Years Six" Bowl game at the end of the season. Look for the Owls to get tested in conference play more than they did a season ago, but to once-again emerge as conference champions.
In the West division, it once again seems that all roads to the conference title game will lead through North Texas. The Mean Green will lean heavily on preseason Honorable Mention All-American QB Mason Fine, who threw for 4,052 yards, 31 TDs and 15 INTs a season ago to try and get back to the Conf. USA Title game for the second consecutive season (lost 41-17 to FAU last year). While they return the best passer in the conference, NT is going to have to improve greatly on a defensive-side that allowed a whopping 35 points per game last season. They surrendered 54 points in a blowout loss to SMU, 43 to UAB, 69 to FAU during the regular season, 49 to Army, and then 50 to Troy in a 20-point loss in the New Orleans Bowl to closeout the season. The inefficiencies of the defense, may leave the door open enough for another team to step in and claim the West, most-notably, UAB or Southern Miss.
The Blazers surprised many with their 8 victories and Bowl appearance in the program's first season back after a 2-year hiatus when it was disbanded following the 2014 season. UAB was particularly good in close games last season, going 4-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, and that experience should serve them well heading into 2018. The schedule poses a few more problems this year (vs Tulane, @ Texas A&M non-conference games; conference games @ Louisiana Tech & Middle Tennessee) but we feel that the Ramblers return enough talent - especially on offense, led by QB AJ Erdely and RB Spencer Brown - that they should push North Texas in the West.
The Eagles of Southern Miss always seem to be a dangerous squad, and are another of the tougher teams to forecast, as they return enough talent to once-again make them dangerous, but have enough holes to fill that it may take a bit for the roster to fully gel. We still feel Southern Miss has enough to get back to a bowl game and get to 7 victories. If the new faces on the squad gel sooner than expected, than this squad could also find themselves in the mix pushing NT for a spot in the conference title game.
Louisiana Tech and UTSA will both be improved as well. The Bulldogs have the best overall defensive-line and D-lineman in the conference in senior DT Jaylon Ferguson, who managed 38 tackles, 12.5 for loss, and 7.0 sacks a season ago. Ferguson will once-again be a difference-maker and should cause plenty of headaches for opposing offenses as he's piled up 122 career tackles, including 41.5 for loss, 27.5 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, and 5 forced fumbles. If the offense can take the big leap forward, this team could even contend for the West division, but ultimately we see a .500 finish and bowl appearance as a more-likely scenario for 2018.
UTSA should be right in the thick of things as well, but are still going to be a few key pieces away from taking the next major jump. Frank Wilson's second season was a smashing success, as they went 6-5 last season after a 6-7 campaign in Wilson's first year at the helm. The Roadrunners will likely take a slight step-back this year as the rest of the division seems to have more at their disposal for the 2018 season. That being said, 4-5 victories should be expected for UTSA.
After UTSA, both Rice and UTEP should be in for long-seasons once-again as both are transitioning with new coaches. UTEP went winless in 17', and while we feel that won't be the case again in 18', 2 wins might be pushing it. Both of these programs were among the worse in the nation last season, and neither one is ready to make much of a jump this season.
Switching back over to the East, Marshall nearly defeated Florida Atlantic in Boca Raton last season (lost 30-25), and return a total of 17 starters. Quarterback will be the big question mark, although they have Wagner transfer Alex Thomson (2,436 yards, 16TD, 5INT in 16') making a push to be the starter. The Thundering Herd hosts FAU on October 20th, in a game that could very well represent the best-chance for any school to give FAU a conference loss, and could end up deciding the winner of the East Division. That game will be a big one and certainly one to spot-light for the entire conference.
Middle Tennessee State will look to build on the continued success of late under head coach Rick Stockstill (3 straight Bowl games & 7 total since 2006). MTSU are deep at RB and return QB Brent Stockstill (16TDs in 17') for an offense that should be one of the conferences' best. On defense, they boast a very solid LB unit, that should be strength of that side of the ball. A tough schedule however, (@ Vanderbilt, @ Georgia, @ Kentucky in non-conference games; @ Marshall and home cross-over against a much-improved UAB) will likely temper expectations a bit and make it difficult to improve on last seasons' win total of 7. With that being said, we still think MTSU will be bowling once-again at the end of the season as .500 and 6 victories seems about right for this squad.
Staying in the East, Western Kentucky had a phenomenal 2016 season, winning 11 games and capturing the conference championship and # 23 ranking nationally. After significant roster turnover, that win total dropped to just 6 last season (6-7) including a disappointing loss to Georgia Southern in the Cure Bowl. The Hilltoppers may be the most-difficult team to project heading into this season, because the amount of roster turnover has left many questions and holes to fill, but the overall talent is there for a team that should win around 6-7 games once again and finish the season in a bowl game.
Florida International and Old Dominion will both pose problems as well in the East, but ultimately, will finish behind the others. We like the Panthers to have a very solid season, as they get a break in the schedule with tough-conference games against Middle Tennessee, Florida Atlantic, and Marshall all coming at-home. That being said, there is no guarantee that they will win any of those three, but none-the-less we feel the Panthers should finish with 6-7 victories and go bowling at the end of the season as well.
Old Dominion will be improved once again, and represents a bit of a wild card. While they will be better, and have one of the better defensive-lines in the conference, they are probably another year away from making significant improvement and rising to the 'next tier' in the conference. Look for the Monarchs to improve on last year, but fall just shy of making it to a bowl game.
CONFERENCE USA Predictions
EAST DIVISION
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (7-1, 11-2) *♔
MARSHALL (6-2, 8-4)
WKU (5-3, 7-5)
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (5-3, 6-6)
FIU (5-3, 7-5)
OLD DOMINION (3-5, 5-7)
CHARLOTTE (0-8, 2-10)
WEST DIVISION
NORTH TEXAS (6-2, 8-5) *
UAB (6-2, 8-4)
SOUTHERN MISS (5-3, 7-5)
LOUISIANA TECH (4-4, 6-6)
UTSA (3-5, 4-8)
RICE (1-7, 2-11)
UTEP (0-8, 1-11)
♔- FLORIDA ATLANTIC over North Texas in Conference USA Championship Game; FAU Conference Champions
In the end, we once-again took the Owls to defeat the Mean Green in a rematch from last year's conference title game. FAU's defense and high-powered offense look to be just too much for the rest of the conference to overcome. The schedule is a bit trickier, but this team is coming back loaded, and should contend for a New Year's Six Bowl game, and possibly even jump into the top 25.
Player to Watch/ Offensive Player of the Year:
Devin Singletary HB Florida Atlantic
2017: 1,918 rushing yards, 32TD, 6.4ypc; 19rec, 198 receiving yards, 1TD
Career: 2,939 rushing yards, 44TD, 6.5ypc; 45rec, 361 receiving yards, 1TD
Defensive Player of the Year:
Azeez Al-Shaair LB Florida Atlantic
2017: 146 total tackles, 10.0 for loss, 2.5 sacks
Career: 352 total tackles, 28.0 for loss, 6.0 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FR, 1 TD
Singletary was a relatively easy choice for offensive player of the year, but North Texas QB Mason Fine should be right there as well. The pick for Defensive Player of the Year was a very difficult choice between teammates Al-Shaair and safety Jalen Young. Young piled up 77 tackles from his safety position and picked off a conference-best 7 passes a season ago. In addition to the two talented FAU defenders, Louisiana Tech DT Jaylon Ferguson is a popular preseason pick by many, and he was right-there, but ultimately finished behind Al-Shaair and Young. One player to keep an eye on, who was actually neck and neck with Al-Shaair is Old Dominion DE Oshane Ximines. In fact, it wouldn't be at all surprising to see Ximines improve on last seasons' stellar numbers (44 tot tkls, 14.0FL, 8.5sks, 4FF) and take home the conference's award for best defensive player.
That concludes our Conference USA Preview, be sure to check-back for continuing coverage of the 2018 college football season, including our major conferences previews & predictions, preseason top 25, Heisman hopefuls and much, much, more!
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