If we all learned to ride the bubbles better the currency would regulate itself. I have a theory that the bottom value of crypto is doubling on certain time frames. Steem's all time low was around 8 cents... and now it looks like we are experiencing another local low around 16 cents.
However, the time frame here is over two years, so we might actually be a bit oversold right now.
From this point forward, I'll be using a baseline for Steem of doubling every year. I think if the price of Steem is less than x5 the baseline it is safe to buy, but once you start getting x10-x100 above the baseline you're begging to get burned.
Doubling in value every year is an insane metric. For any other asset it would be ludicrous to expect this kind of return. However, with crypto it spikes up x2, x4, x8 and we don't even question it... we just want more. We need to start questioning it. Personally, I'll be doing the most analysis on Bitcoin because it is the most predictable and has ties to every other project under the sun.
If Bitcoin is bubbling it's about to lose 80-85% of its value while everything else is about to lose 90-99%. I believe that Bitcoin will bubble again between the end of 2020 and the end of 2021. Until then, I have plenty of time to build and not worry about the noise.