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Forecast Linear/Polynomial Uni/Multivariate Regression BitCoin Futures

Transcript

00:01
yes you come up it's meant from the
00:03
laptop it's much better from a laptop
00:10
yeah it's better from a laptop Jimmy
00:31
and you've said that you made between
00:33
their don't think so
00:37
I would like to show you I can email and
00:41
galino just yeah
00:56
you go in wrong game oh ok I see if it
01:03
works for you soon here's the lovely
01:05
yeah so try to come in so I'm coming in
01:27
so now I'm joining you yeah you know
01:36
what
01:36
steamy yes repeat do you have seen it
01:43
Stevie Stevie is the web's and bloggers
01:53
on that side so calm /with whatever I'm
02:13
telling you so this is in my accent a
02:18
little better
02:53
in Europe if it's local he said yeah
02:56
where are you Jamie at that sign the @
03:08
sign and then i wi z mo r he be easy
03:25
yes this bi z like wizards more business
03:34
ok
03:36
this bi z no spaces altogether the
03:40
outside with more biz ok press enter
03:57
no no no no no at sign w I see that
04:04
Grizz like wizard right
04:09
WIC MORB I see you understand why I need
04:15
my translator okay so what do you say
04:19
there in front of you all right
04:29
okay so click on that so click on it
04:40
right now go down now go down where it
04:45
says long Earl you are relic Universal
04:49
resource locator you see something that
04:55
says long URL okay you see that link
05:02
there click on that link and let's see
05:07
what happens Dennis will tap
05:21
okay
05:27
and they did say to join yeah click on
05:34
Joey now and you'll be in a video
05:36
conferencing with us I'm there
05:40
ok great all right we can see we can see
05:45
it ok could you say something something
05:50
yeah I see I see you're like it right
05:54
now I see behind do you have my stuff
05:56
feed us right right okay right now okay
06:03
are you are you we can share our screen
06:06
to see you so basically this is what we
06:18
are using you chose so at first you
06:22
can't come to class they use this but
06:25
this way the sons can be in Colombia
06:28
visiting their family and participate in
06:31
the class remotely and we can choose yes
06:34
we have to submit you have to send me
06:37
one of those yarmulkes what are you
06:39
wearing it's a headband let me explain
06:47
you this headband is just not the
06:49
headband that we are wearing it's an
06:52
advertising method of somebody being
06:58
able to click this is not just a
06:59
headband you may not be able to read it
07:02
but if you read it carefully you'll see
07:04
it has a penalty number on Sarah's head
07:07
if you click on either one first let me
07:10
click on myself so you can see my friend
07:13
I see this headband as a URL this is the
07:21
vanity phone number in a domain name
07:25
a 3:05 on trial a hot a hot region on
07:37
the video so when we stream it live
07:39
let's say that it was 305 clockwork when
07:46
we finish and they still want to
07:49
purchase something from you for my
07:52
clockwork they will click on this video
07:55
hi curly and it will automatically also
07:58
got the phone number three or five on
08:01
trial and this is a domain name also but
08:05
on trial Doug bliss can you follow me
08:08
yes so if you dial from their computer
08:14
to the operator of 305 on trial database
08:17
and will pour them to the website on
08:20
trial database so they can the operator
08:24
can help them navigate the website in by
08:26
your algorithm or thank you algorithm I
08:31
like it very good
08:33
ok scream that so anyone is now I can
08:36
share my screen with you and execute for
08:41
example you can see my screen and you
08:43
can let me in configurator
08:51
so I'm clicking on the green you see
08:55
there is if you look on the left inside
08:57
you are with your mouse you'll see that
08:59
there buttons on the left hand side of
09:03
the screen you see that there is a chat
09:06
button you click the chat button it will
09:10
open up the chat panel and let me say hi
09:14
hi you see me say - yes I do
09:19
yes I do underneath that button there is
09:22
another button the chest says stream
09:30
arrow if you mouse over it don't say
09:34
screen share you see that Jamie on your
09:37
left hand so now I'm going to click it
09:40
so I can show you my screen and I can
09:42
show you how I run angel trader 11 the
09:48
stick can you understand me yeah I I
09:50
understand that okay sure this way I
09:53
think I'm going to click on it and it
09:56
will listen what do you want to share
09:57
the home screen or part of the screen
09:59
and I'm going to say I want to share the
10:02
whole screen so I click on the share
10:04
button and now instead of a good-looking
10:07
face you will see my screen I'm going to
10:10
minimize am confused because there's so
10:15
many things don't work out anything I'm
10:19
going to throw some things that are
10:22
irrelevant
10:23
yeah and they run ninja try and I get
10:28
the jet ready for you so I have the
10:32
trader I want to explain to you how how
10:36
we operate and how we teach so you have
10:38
an idea of what it is that you want to
10:40
do so that two versions of ninja trader
10:44
there is day 64 bit and the 32-bit
10:48
version set version 8 so we are running
10:53
the 32-bit I'm going to double click it
10:55
demonstrated you because three data
11:05
three futures data for the students yes
11:08
yeah and a 32-bit module yes I saw that
11:11
one I tried in the data they would only
11:14
go for that okay
11:15
the reason for that is different banks
11:21
like TD Ameritrade a Ameritrade Bank
11:25
we'll give students full access to all
11:29
the futures data for free on their zero
11:35
balance account I'm going to go file
11:40
connect I'll use the free kinetic every
11:45
day for now just double swing okay so
11:48
kinetic end of day free and when he
11:54
turns right away abroad or either way
11:55
hangouts text hang on a second avi I pay
11:59
if an action which a lot of these a lot
12:01
of connections with these people here at
12:03
NinjaTrader if you need these please
12:08
ammo account extended I can have that
12:11
done I can have them do a lot of things
12:13
because I have a very very good contact
12:15
up there NinjaTrader yeah thank you good
12:18
men to defend this Ameritrade is that
12:22
you get the futures for free forever so
12:25
you don't have to worry about with
12:27
soaring foreign students and Social
12:45
Security so complicated well the trade
13:03
the train to the TradeStation stand by
13:05
your side yeah we don't want to disturb
13:11
your tray no no listen
13:15
I babysit so my stuff is is different
13:20
now used to be very hectic years ago not
13:25
so much okay let me get back okay so
13:30
between the windows the ninja seven and
13:33
a ninja eight you're still recommending
13:35
a note in just seven thirty two-bit
13:38
four
13:39
for the masses because of the pre-beta
13:44
Ameritrade that was if they don't do the
13:47
Ameritrade but you can see how well can
13:54
you see this it's perfectly I said I
13:58
just see that he doesn't
13:59
you guys don't put too much data though
14:01
you only use what I years but the data
14:20
reading one oh trading 101 what do you
14:23
what are you using for our you fault
14:27
parameters open it and when I show you
14:40
move it down and enable it so I'm going
14:44
to enable here which is false
14:48
yeah and okay and then and now you see
14:54
my screen okay I have show me show me
15:00
show me the performance and this
15:03
particular 1026 so Brian to see the
15:08
performance first we can see the
15:10
performance already there red lines
15:14
illusion so you see the screen so I'd um
15:18
in order to show the performance I write
15:21
mostly T strength strategy silver
15:27
historical in the real time okay and it
15:29
opens the performance step so you can
15:32
see that it is losing on all trades on
15:35
long running short correct okay and now
15:40
I can export it to excel by
15:42
right-clicking in grid export to exam
15:48
and here is Excel and then we save it to
15:53
freeze it in time so to speak so we can
15:56
have multiple versions of this our go
15:58
file save as and I go through a folder
16:03
that is relevant let's say I have four
16:08
in my document suppose I'll die later
16:12
hmm so I click on new folder well it IBM
16:21
and save it there and now I'm going to
16:39
copy so this is the class for ma day on
16:45
Tuesday engine trainer and so on and the
16:50
date in the beginning so performance
16:53
evaluation and then calculate the
16:57
difference and see the impact so now
17:00
instead the title that they fired copy
17:04
same I go back to the spreadsheet and I
17:08
put in the spreadsheet the title page
17:11
specially the dice name last the past
17:14
four or five sabers in vacuuming type en
17:20
snap the past and put the path in there
17:24
Scratchy
17:25
so later on I can I can keep track on
17:29
all these that I haven't always passing
17:33
the time
17:36
so I gotta fix this one as of now and if
17:39
I want to compare their to another
17:41
strategy or another time point I'm going
17:44
to minimize it now I'm going to let's
17:46
say I want to compare between two top
17:48
two strategies or two companies for
17:50
example now I'm going to change from IBM
17:54
let's say 2 m Microsoft MS same thing
18:00
now so I get the strategy away go back
18:04
go back how do you do that the changes
18:06
like that with that alright
18:08
how did you change it on the fly from my
18:10
from my cursor anywhere you place the
18:15
cursor anywhere and you wonder how you
18:28
did that yes now I think ok so now I
18:36
wanna show you what we're doing all the
18:39
time
18:44
performance settings crossovers over 20
18:48
min time and this is my lose-lose either
18:54
and now I know I read in Excel I'm going
19:04
to take the spreadsheet and copied and
19:07
copied a strategy to the the IBM's
19:12
producing cannot return that contains
19:15
the differences so here I have the IBM
19:20
spreadsheet going to a loop and now I'm
19:25
pasting in it the Microsoft spreadsheet
19:29
so this is going to be microscope so
19:33
amnesty for Jenny right head sheet one
19:38
in Jeju
19:39
and then I'm going to make a sheep
19:41
ridwan system difference so I think I
19:45
paste it again
19:51
I'm going to - I got the Sheep -
19:58
with the buffer and I'm going to shoot
20:01
three and paste it so now it's sheet2
20:07
and sheet3 of the same now I'm going to
20:11
take them and put the difference between
20:14
sheet1 and cheapest I'm going to put an
20:17
equal sign equal sign and I'm going to
20:27
go to sheet 1 take the value - shin -
20:39
and then press put in the formula that
20:46
person is now same be two solutions
20:54
following yes and now I'm going to
20:58
expand it to the first to line number 2
21:01
from Whitledge right here before us and
21:04
now in the top line I had the difference
21:07
between IBM and Microsoft
21:12

the entire spreadsheet by dragging it
21:16
down to the bottom so now I got the
21:21
differences between Microsoft and IBM
21:27
perfect
21:28
I'm saying IBM - Microsoft in the corner
21:33
IBM - Microsoft and now we can conduct
21:39
the difference between this strategy as
21:43
it applies to IBM
21:44
Microsoft and see what is the
21:48
difference between the two companies at
21:50
this point in time very nice
21:55
I can see doing that across the
21:57
hold-down 30 and the down ponent yeah
22:01
and now I'm going to add another sheet
22:04
and show you that how we do forecasting
22:07
I will start with a new solution so for
22:57
any futures and I want historical
23:03
historical data so here I got the
23:09
historical data this is what I got here
23:14
so I can download a working copy so I'm
23:18
going to copy about 30 days into my
23:22
spreadsheet and all of this that I'm
23:24
showing my spreadsheet for ourselves and
23:55
change it today and show the day of the
23:58
week also so this we can see the degrees
24:01
and so this way and we you have you have
24:13
to change the field at that price close
24:29
now I want to we sort it because I want
24:32
the last day to get at the bottom so I'm
24:35
going to go to data sword
24:40
and change the sorting order without the
24:43
headers by column a so now I got the
24:51
October Tuesday today at the bottom you
24:56
follow correct yes I am ended up going
24:58
and all that Bitcoin futures I can copy
25:01
to listen to just typing and also I'm
25:06
putting the URL inside my spreadsheet so
25:10
I know exactly where did I get it the
25:14
stones can replicate everything that I'm
25:16
doing later make sure that they learn
25:20
and then I'm going to put Bitcoin
25:22
futures I'm going to go back to those to
25:26
the spreadsheet there to the URL and
25:28
take exactly what bit wonky relates
25:32
because there are different versions of
25:34
this bill Krahn futures is the cbot 1x
25:39
variety and clicking see and now I want
25:42
I'm going to go back and put it just in
25:45
now I want to get just the text I don't
25:53
want the special attribute so I'm going
25:55
to go change
25:56
thanks and I want to do a podcast a
26:01
linear in the polynomial forecast we are
26:05
going to insert it into my spreadsheet
26:12
and I want to go create the forecast
26:15
angle to start with the linear forecast
26:17
and then a polynomial you already have
26:42
his turning points on the chart so here
28:46
you can see and I'm going to color a
28:48
different see better I'm going to color
28:51
this one way I'm going to go to the
28:53
color and I'm going to change from blue
28:56
to red so some people they don't that I
28:59
getting overwhelmed by that see what it
29:02
is
29:03
okay so now you can see that the linear
29:07
is going down and the polynomial is
29:10
there in this Agreement now we're going
29:17
to copy ctrl C and place it on top of
29:21
the linear control Z there's the put to
29:29
the linear can you follow me I'm here so
29:35
I'm going to make it
29:38
you left the banks a little lineup so
29:45
now I'm going to drag and drop the
29:48
formula next to the R square to make a
29:53
little table comparing the R square of
29:57
the linear to show the urine the
30:00
students the game look using the
30:02
polynomial over linear so I'm going to
30:07
make the header I have the first square
30:12
you're getting good data my I think in
31:16
show the difference between R square
31:30
[Music]
32:40
yes yes so now three day this one unit
33:08
so now I'm going to demonstrate you
33:11
another one
33:11
this is a multivariate okay follow me I
33:20
get yes I do
33:22
I got a very good reading using the
33:25
linear regression and 252 days with 252
33:30
trading days of the year it is and I in
33:32
the right and I look at the residuals
33:37
going back 252 days I they able to build
33:42
a nice model with those residuals
33:44
certain percentage above that line and a
33:47
certain percentage below that line which
33:48
is almost extremely accurate but only
33:51
with that 250 to date data with less
33:53
time data so that it will not be true
33:59
too much in fact there is a residual
34:02
that I'm going to show you right now so
34:05
right now which will be very strong so
34:15
I'm going to it is price
34:30
in the miracle this is our routine
35:24
here in the end and now I'm going to
35:30
delete column B so I can do the mountain
35:33
regression to show you the residuals
35:38
so I delete column B and now I'm going
35:42
to show you the residuals is the next
35:44
thing that I wanted to show you okay so
35:48
I'm going to do go to data and you see
35:54
right now it doesn't have their
35:55
statistical analysis right to change the
35:58
options right people file options so I
36:23
click on the Go button and I check mark
36:26
analysis toolpak yeah yes okay Dana Dana
36:44
Alice's so I think big that else's now
36:48
I'm going to take the regression but
36:50
this time I'm going to show you the
36:55
multivariate regression mm-hmm okay so
37:04
the one again when price from labor
37:07
forecast this is why because it's easy
37:15
to explain indeed there is too painful
37:20
there
38:08
okay yeah so yeah
39:28
and now I'll try to get again and we can
39:54
I wanna buy stupid Sunday and believe
39:59
the Sunday because yeah but anyway let's
40:16
see if I can whatever can we please
40:22
nothing require just just translate let
40:31
me say in French before Russia's again
40:34
continue and our non-numeric so the
40:41
Sundays but you said before you have to
40:44
deal with them because they are not
40:45
really relevant for some reason they
40:48
stick em in there but all of this can be
40:51
done automatically with VBA in yeah you
40:55
can program and take out all Sundays you
40:58
know and do you work with the deep dde
41:09
like it or just vba exchange cuz i see a
41:19
lot of this dde add-on expel Excel
41:24
spreadsheets from a lot of the other
41:25
brokerage firms
41:26
yeah yes we are also having streaming it
41:30
we can stream it to an Excel spreadsheet
41:32
in real time anyway so I'm going to go
41:36
back to Dana
41:37
now a little smile might be be a sports
41:42
or going to options and I'm going to our
41:45
headings and I'm going to add those a
41:49
and analysis tool pack and okay
41:59
so I'm going to go to regression again I
42:01
just wanted to show you the residual
42:03
analysis because I think that it will be
42:06
valuable to improving the performance of
42:08
your forecast
42:10
absolutely absolutely okay and now I'm
42:15
going to use the changes you were to
42:22
change focus to change and I can also so
42:31
this will be x one price to be x2 its
42:35
own and a big volume because they know
42:41
and now it's less data confidence a
42:47
residual standing residual blood line
42:51
plot fit right and normal and I click OK
42:57
well now I got my I'm going to scroll
43:05
down to the risk you have all these
43:07
plots each path is telling you something
43:11
different and you scroll down to the
43:14
residuals and here is my residual with
43:17
the probability output the time points
43:21
to move over one set so this is here
43:24
they make Oh
43:29
so this is the residual which is left
43:32
over but the longer soul you see alright
43:42
so we we could take the the overbought
43:45
or oversold and have a to say an average
43:49
of the oversold price an average of the
43:51
under sold price it gives a good nice
43:53
clean entries yeah right and you know
43:59
also charged for the residuals to see
44:02
they didn't charge and of course it
44:09
would be different if you had more David
44:14
not that the residual blood that because
44:20
one I don't have to move a cursor down a
44:24
lot you see already I crushed Excel here
44:28
is the height here's the residual chart
44:30
to see the the residual so okay so right
44:35
if we took this and just look at it
44:37
visually you would be you would look at
44:39
something that says okay these residual
44:42
above the regression line a show
44:46
overbought oversold and below oversold
44:50
in the middle of the cluster of fair
44:51
value or something like that but start
44:53
looking with towards the the ones that
44:56
are overbought or oversold and have
44:58
systems that are waiting triggers that
45:01
are waiting the market at those
45:02
percentage moves
45:04
that's I've got yeah the idea is to have
45:08
a constant plot line that you can use it
45:11
against all markets and when the markets
45:13
deviate too much from that middle line
45:15
it's gonna generate sell signals with
45:18
very little loss right I made the chart
45:23
for your residual you see a chart title
45:25
is basically residuals so that is the
45:29
residuals right here and you can see
45:31
when the crossovers in the observation
45:35
that are predicted
45:45
so this is the updated page bla bla
46:39
doing the steel over here but this will
46:42
go to this URL you see so let me go back
47:20
you know who did it there you know place
47:26
it here so I have already open up the
47:35
page see
47:40
so now we share the data your sulamita
47:47
malaria get you there and then you have
47:50
to put the URL in here base and then
47:54
click go and argue that claim has to
47:59
straighten about anywhere in fact you
48:02
get the idea to go to the URL you can
48:06
suggest an update it then you have to
48:08
tell you every 5 seconds or ever to be
48:36
interesting we're having some machine
48:43
learning the models being built around
48:46
our square and the linear regression
48:49
line GP from commencing work on we're
48:53
going to see some studies that we're
48:56
trying to use it more as a filter as
48:58
opposed to a system but I've had some
49:01
some I opening experiences with linear
49:05
regression since you guys turned me on
49:06
to it
49:09
enjoying the linear regression of ninja
49:11
so this is typically what we teach let
49:15
me show you on going to ninja back there
49:19
is a ninja so what about doing typically
49:22
by adding to this a polynomial and
49:25
linear regression so you go to the
49:29
control panel
49:39
[Music]
50:11
I always of all these yeah you know the
50:21
and all these yes
51:07
[Music]
51:55
so the linear regression I showed you
52:00
and they said I'm going to tell you at a
52:35
certain point to go short depending or
52:38
to grow along and I want to get an arts
52:41
priorities on the upswing so I will
52:45
change into our cross here you see of
52:52
these this the last offset do you have
52:55
is a great cell signal
52:56
okay yes this is an example a symposium
53:00
is a good sensing will accept entities
53:02
not so good the reason I can't see
53:31
it's going down
53:56
okay so it's inverse so let me show you
54:01
another example where it R square is
54:05
going up so another little blue icon the
54:11
by July make you like the mid July by
54:34
doing one example you see that it says
54:54
cents short and it is really short on
55:01
the bottom the minimum point instead I
55:05
learned who started in 3d
55:09
the problem is in the squeeze
55:14
a 16% which is hello I like to go when
55:19
it's 30% good it goes down pretty low so
55:31
anyways this is some of the things that
55:33
you are teaching to incorporate this
55:35
into the trailing cluster and it'll
55:48
filter out some glitches some traits so
55:52
the good filter see the difference
56:09
between teaches that include a short
56:31
holding period so within the teaching
56:34
session like from 9:30 to concurring you
56:37
can enter an exit and ditch to stop some
56:41
principles of algorithmic trading and so
56:46
doing institute a few thousand followers
56:51
so is to promote your brand name thank
56:58
you
56:59
okay we're gonna get to work with the
57:04
r-square and linear on the new models
57:06
that are being developed by the machine
57:09
I'll have something for you very very
57:12
shortly
57:12
just to say or at least test from our
57:15
side we're basically the we're gonna
57:18
slow some of our systems we're going to
57:19
add these filters and hopefully we'll
57:21
get something that is
58:16
with Wordsworth it were at a point where
58:19
we know we want to manage and the
58:23
software is very good money and however
58:26
it doesn't have that mechanism we are
58:31
saying that credibility you know cp82
58:34
license application registered and under
58:38
rules and that gives the credibility
58:44
enjoy they make think very much yes I
58:51
have the software side is is different
58:55
because it it's all out there's a lot of
58:58
people ripping a lot of people off you
59:00
know with systems with courses with the
59:03
chat rooms all the stuff getting bad
59:05
names out there accelerating in the the
59:09
Bitcoin field you know it happened
59:11
through the Forex we want no part of
59:13
that you know I had something you know
59:15
of that nature in South Florida many
59:19
years ago that I felt that's you know
59:21
that's like going the wrong way
59:23
and what I see that has helped me it's
59:26
been the futures to thinking because you
59:28
know anyone get up here me with one
59:30
system and get lucky and be rated number
59:33
one
59:34
but he's doing it consistently now that
59:36
one year two years three years that were
59:37
on a fourth year it's changed a lot that
59:40
the perception has changed lat I know
59:42
that I can cure that the other thing is
59:44
so you see a lot of promoters selling
59:48
garbage and a half after three four
59:50
months you see complaints large to the
59:53
regulators or rock where hey don't go
59:56
near that clock preserve their scam
59:58
artists you're no good there's a net net
60:00
when you start to see it developers and
60:03
Heather let's just say other companies
60:08
are doing this that I'm doing but I
60:10
don't see our product I don't see
60:12
anything that says a property don't go
60:14
to hey that liver
60:15
they got mad customer support ins they
60:17
said it's quite the opposite so to us
60:20
that's refreshing we want we need to
60:21
protect that because that's one we have
60:23
one dated one guys than many I bought
60:25
the software and actually these system
60:27
it's garbage so good
60:29
whatever it is that destroys more
60:32
credibility in art and art is just just
60:34
the allegation it's almost like the
60:36
judge Capernaum so I don't what we don't
60:39
have any lawyers no just want to state
60:41
we want to stay forward to the managed
60:43
money the cleaner of vehicle head and
60:45
not only that beginning with higher
60:47
sophisticated investors they think they
60:50
know months the notice might much no
60:52
performance reports and they could tell
60:54
if your BS in them or not
60:56
and to know this sushi you know it's not
60:58
a little little old lady that you're
60:59
trying to sell a system to and saying
61:01
okay greatest thing since sliced bread
61:03
these are real sharks then one day you
61:07
know which way they're asking me some
61:09
very tough questions and they were
61:10
asking to the right important and you
61:13
know but for now not with delivering
61:15
stuff that is the baby steps
61:28
let me ask you Danny
61:32
so how much others if you just let it
61:35
going thank you one that you can
61:37
Matakana accent trade or you have to put
61:40
any order stuff no
61:46
I have yet to say a 100% automation on
61:56
90% of the systems so it is very few
62:00
system if there are few systems that
62:01
require a human element or let me look
62:05
at this in a different way
62:06
most of it is auto act all of it you
62:09
know all the top rate stuff is auto
62:11
lexically these cooking out of X system
62:13
you know so this is where you work not
62:16
only oughta watch but that it has a stop
62:18
loss yeah so this is very important to
62:25
the masses
62:27
I was talking to you David and attempt I
62:31
think the masses see a lot more than we
62:35
do I mean we're only in a fitness and
62:37
it's base although that spaces Jews
62:39
that's yoga Forex bill disputes is a
62:41
built in with cyber currencies in that's
62:45
maybe 15 20 % Oh what's out there
62:50
what what about the UPF semen in Spanish
62:54
that's a cute universe to how many
62:57
people trading Adobe or Tesla or Netflix
63:00
or right there Express that's a human
63:03
much bigger market and it's but they
63:05
don't have the tools that we can show
63:07
them so if somebody's I love American
63:11
Express all I trade well if they do
63:13
anything had a system for American
63:14
Express
63:15
they might entertain binding you know
63:18
what they think will reduce you to
63:19
system now I'm really big that's clean
63:21
it to boil so there's a whole world
63:24
thing get out here I know everyone else
63:36
is that everyone else bill system around
63:40
Trice Bryson first and maybe long game
63:44
study my stuff is eight hours and
63:49
minutes first second you have our signal
63:52
it's red you get the public about
63:55
holding it goes
63:57
I can see it so tell me what is the
64:12
upper bound of the polynomial what color
64:14
is it
64:17
tread that's right the lower bound is
64:20
blue
64:22
yes I see it and you see in this case
64:25
what we are looking for and then maybe
64:33
our building or a down yes yes and that
64:42
is the slope remember that I'm
64:44
mentioning angstrom yes yes so that
64:47
would be in this case in October for
64:54
this week mission the linear polynomial
64:59
sign so you went you went from a July I
65:16
presume that October 1st 2018 yes yes
65:25
exposed me what will bring the sign in
65:30
front of a with is the plus or minus
65:42
that's right so if I pocket the chart
65:47
in exam we're doing a cold you'll be
65:51
able to see it better I go back to excel
65:53
form in it for here is my excel sheet
65:58
and I'm going today this I'm going to
66:04
move this thing away from the center
66:07
there I wanna go to sheet or could not I
66:11
have to to finish like this which is
66:17
born at me the spirit is missing now
66:34
okay the dumping of my jammies more
66:38
Selenia I'm sorry I'm back with you
66:45
hello okay if I open it again
66:56
you seen it great the sheet one I know I
67:09
want to open this IBM
67:48
[Music]
68:06
yeah yes using linear equations the
69:03
future so if you look at the spreadsheet
69:05
again look at the time of the chart what
69:13
is the last bit of the charcoal make it
69:15
a lot useful is it a little better you
69:18
go
69:24
October October 29th when you the future
69:40
the carport looking forward is the
70:16
university that we stuff people support
70:27
anytime somebody cools fantastic
70:34
I like that funny I know that when they
70:36
come your company we get a human online
70:40
even knows what to do or we do a video
70:44
conference within the video conference
70:47
with you face to face in the computer to
71:04
mark in the superior user has no support
71:08
whatsoever i you've been living in
71:14
Florida too long army sorry I am
71:17
teaching you about Computer Fraud so I'm
71:20
very familiar with all the kinds of
71:22
computer project I used to teach through
71:24
the years I'm teaching commodity so I'm
71:29
very familiar with all these phones and
71:30
people have been reading about and so
71:33
scare the Wits out of there so what we
71:37
have forensic a forensic accounting
71:40
there's of course there's the courses I
71:42
was teaching in our published several
71:44
hundred articles about so we're comes
71:49
within the confidence
72:11
[Applause]
72:43
seriously very good family good and
72:50
these these are bright kids that should
72:51
be able to pass a series three first
72:53
time around
72:53
yeah right 125 questions an
72:57
hour-and-a-half exam and it's not as
72:59
intensive as a series seven but it's a
73:02
professional license is a very good
73:03
start we were talking about that because
73:05
here's a way that you can get whether
73:08
it's an MBA graduate or a graduate
73:10
coming out of business school sponsored
73:14
him for Series three against that within
73:16
45 days not only has real NASD license
73:20
we go back to his own country and maybe
73:24
work for his family business or the idea
73:29
Japanese to set up satellite businesses
73:32
so once we trained and they passed the
73:35
she restraining route back to China or
73:37
something Arabia wherever they go
73:39
to set up an office for local support
73:46
and locally they can print you make a
73:49
branch office of the CTA exactly a CPA
73:54
you're not just setting on because I
73:56
don't think they're gonna be twisted I'm
73:58
gonna set up a software distributor it's
74:01
got an MBA mind I'm not gonna set up so
74:04
he told softer shop but you know what
74:06
I'm interested in being a CTA and if I
74:08
could be a CPA in Japan and I already
74:11
have soft with you slap the clock it
74:13
didn't only just do something I think
74:14
that might be a little more interesting
74:23
a finance major and if they will take
74:28
the series and recommend it to their
74:32
clients and in in a native language and
74:35
explaining to them exactly because if
74:38
you have a place like United never
74:40
remember it's guitar these are the
74:42
places that you have tons of money but
74:45
you have very very little talent a lot
74:47
of very few people managing a lot of
74:49
wealth and basically they're into their
74:51
guys it's game over United States
74:53
studied ed and warden order good finish
74:56
school and move back to your their
74:58
country now they're trading lots of
75:01
money for family and sovereign welfare
75:04
and they really don't really know what
75:06
you're doing but they're entrusted with
75:08
with this and if they have you know a
75:11
certain vehicle or Lea compass that they
75:14
can help them I think think you know
75:16
they don't burn out as quickly and they
75:19
won't lose money this is what I have you
75:21
have a lot amenable this is a very tough
75:27
business and if people think it's easy
75:28
especially these guys now in the in
75:31
decipher currencies that then made some
75:33
money or they had a friend that made
75:34
very easy money and they think it's like
75:36
that all the time it's not you know
75:37
they're gonna get a you know there's
75:40
like a lot of these guys they have not
75:42
say they last major crash we had in 1987
75:45
October of 1987 think about a 28 year
75:48
old or a 31 year old stockbroker that's
75:51
making pretty good money now he was a
75:53
kid maybe was even born he doesn't know
75:55
how volatile these were she wasn't can
75:57
become
75:57
yeah so so this is uh this is something
76:01
that when we have I think we're
76:03
beginning to shake out of the Dow Jones
76:05
now I I have gone on record saying that
76:09
interest rates have bottle to me we're
76:12
gonna go we're gonna fly up in interest
76:14
rates maybe not to a tune of ten eleven
76:16
percent we're gonna get to six seven
76:18
eight percent very very clear case the
76:20
markets gonna come down and it'll come
76:21
down you know a good ten maybe fifteen
76:24
percent that's not that bad it could be
76:27
a lot worse but in that drop there's
76:29
gonna be a lot of money to be made and I
76:31
think we're gonna get another leg up on
76:32
the Bighorn from sixty five hundred
76:34
we're probably gonna rally to eleven
76:36
thousand and change there's good money
76:38
on the table here straight ahead and
76:40
these markets don't scare me what scares
76:44
me anymore the the systemic where's
76:46
something that with our martial law or
76:49
outside of the ATM starting stop orchid
76:52
banking system that's more my concern
76:54
like I've got to be able to make the
76:56
money monetize it and put it into
76:58
something that I'm comfortable you know
77:02
it's real assets you know you know
77:03
farmland food something tangible
77:08
I don't like paper I don't like folded
77:10
paper I don't like my clients holding
77:12
paper currencies there's some day I like
77:15
like New Zealand these other currencies
77:17
that I'm very uncomfortable holding so
77:20
this one's remixed over the next five
77:22
ten years is gonna be much much
77:24
different landscape than the last thirty
77:26
five years which we think condition to
77:28
do buy and hold and the markets gonna
77:31
come back and you know any any
77:32
correction of four percent eight percent
77:34
is gonna be met with buying and we're
77:37
gonna go back up
77:38
I don't think so this time well I think
77:39
there's some some trouble and there
77:41
could be a reset and they're stuck with
77:44
its Trump administration and stuff with
77:47
the petrodollar
77:47
I think there's turbulence coming and I
77:50
and I can see it already so my thing is
77:53
to the hopefully set up shop with your
77:56
assistance maybe some of the grad
77:58
students but I think we've got a clock
78:01
to beat here but Jimmy the most
78:05
important thing is you know we said to
78:08
David he was describing to us
78:17
yes well it's correct well listen this
78:28
this emotions that most people have big
78:32
traders when they put their own money
78:33
they change is different like David was
78:35
like wait a second when when things were
78:37
moving against them he was in distress
78:39
and would worry when he was at yeah the
78:44
point the point I would like to make to
78:50
you is that he didn't want to my room or
78:54
contract is the idea of sitting side by
78:57
side and you infusing the confidence and
79:04
he saw us he said I'm going to train you
79:13
don't have me funded I would like to
79:15
make a self confidence from 0 to 100 and
79:22
when he came back he was so excited I do
79:31
I understand it and I have I have other
79:33
people that don't act as quickly as
79:36
David did you know David has shown some
79:39
of his clients the results and listened
79:41
doctor I have had good results from the
79:45
from the clock workgroup from the from
79:47
the futures truth from the systems and
79:49
I've had a lot of people call and I've
79:53
had some crack crackpots there is like
80:03
somebody sitting by you not everything
80:10
goes alright but close
81:20
so you just think you did a good job you
81:39
took him from zero to a hero and cannot
81:44
sleep it is not funny
81:46
he cannot sleep at night he was so
81:49
excited it was ten o'clock already in
81:52
this in this easel he's the other
82:08
extreme I have so many people that I
82:10
tried to show the same thing I go