Tentative Calm after the Syrian Strikes

[madmonkey]

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With the “Mission Accomplished” announcement from Trump, let’s look at the situation in Syria briefly.

US signalled that it has unilateral power that it can share with allies at will, exercised that power with more restrained than words spoken before and achieved little and lost little.

UK and France reminded all that they matter in the global geopolitics and they’ve neither gained or lost from this move.

Syrian regime has control of Douma, suffered some missile hits, other than the humanitarian disaster, they will be content with the result.

Russia will complain but given the scope of the targets will not take any action that would alter the status quo. It is possible that the Russians will perceive unwanted escalation risk in the future and will not carry that time forward just now.

Not to mention that humanity somewhat loses..

So the short term balance will be restored but there will be a lingering sense of escalation risk that could be trigged by actions by these and other interested parties. As such we stand on a short term reduced risk level compared to days ago and a medium term increased risk level compared to weeks ago.

All this assuming that there are no further strikes or major countermoves..

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43767156

Comments

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[madmonkey]

What would be the market reaction?

Guessing Game:

1. Gold trades down around 2% sometime, settles around 1% down.
2. US equities up less than 1%. Similar moves in developed markets.
3. Bond yields and the USD mostly unchanged.
4. EM currencies slightly to somewhat weaker around the ME region and unchanged elsewhere.
5. EM equity markets in the ME region will have a variance of risers and fallers while other EM markets a bit better.
6. No crypto effect.

1 day guessing game..

[madmonkey]

In retrospect:
Other than Gold the call is ok. As for Gold, perhaps the risk perception trade is stronger than it seems. If so, Gold will break 1377. To watch..

[clumsysilverdad]

"Mission Dumbass"

[madmonkey]

Short term aim of achieving nothing was reached. Nonetheless medium term optionality has increased for the striking coaliton.