Excellent write-up of this historic event, @apshamilton. One of the most important aspects of the Hive blockchain is being able to hear straight from people without any ... "filters" ... in between us. Your perspective on what is currently happening is invaluable.
I particularly liked what you wrote at the end about why Netanyahu may have lulled his adversaries into a false sense of ?...? by creating the ceasefire with Hezbollah. While you do not touch on that really, I wonder how many people in Lebanon are secretly rooting for the Israelis to be successful in fully decimating Hezbollah, much as they have done with Hamas.
What are your thoughts on this? If the grip of Hezbollah on Lebanon is weakened / eliminated, I wonder what the future of Lebanon would unfold to become? With the re-election of Trump, are you hoping for a resumption of negotiations with its neighbors (and other countries) to normalize their relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords?
Thanks.
Most Lebanese Christians and Druse are not so secretly "rooting for Israel".
The question is: when will they feel Hizbollah is weakened enough for them to rise up against it.
Some Israelis hoped that this point was already achieved in Lebanon, as it was in Syria. But the Lebanese have suffered terribly from civil war and will only rise up when they are really sure they can win.
But now, with the fall of Assad, the complete destruction of Syria's military hardware and Israel control of Mt Hermon, Hizbollah is completely cut off from Iranian re-supply of weapons and most importantly, money.
Their financial infrastructure and billions in cash and gold has gone up in smoke and been melted back into the earth. They have tens of thousands of wounded fighters who are expensive to care for. Many joined Hizbollah because it was well paid and seemed the most secure job in Lebanon (ie more for financial reasons than ideological).
Without re-supply Hizbollah will whither on the vine and at some point the Christians and Druse will become confident enough to pluck them. It is now only a matter of time.
Once Hizbollah are overthrown then peace with Lebanon is very achievable and the Lebanese will be desperate for cash from Israeli tourists (who spend twice the average EU tourist) and investment from Israeli & Gulf state businessmen.
Similarly this can also occur in Druse / Christian areas of Southern Syria adjacent to Israeli border, if a stable, secure autonomy can be achieved for those areas (perhaps under Israeli protection). Some there are already calling for Israeli investment.
It is important to understand that both Lebanon and Syria are now extremely poor after decades of civil war, but this wasn't always so. Israel is a wealthy super advanced country that can raise the living standards of friendly neighbours hugely. The Christians of Lebanon and Syria are very entreprenerial historically and will move quickly to create business relationships.
Very good. Exactly what I was hoping for, given the uhhh ... "slant" ... of most of our "news" here ...
These excerpts stood out to me:
The 1st one - seems similar to my understanding, from personal conversations with some of my American acquaintances involved in our military efforts in Afghanistan. Their "services" were available to the highest bidder ...
The 2nd one - yes, I can only imagine. Leading me to often wonder what these people, in their "heart of hearts" and true private thoughts and feelings, think about all of it ...
The 3rd one - Not surprising. Our shared Judeo-Christian worldview is not a trivial topic. IMHO ... Said differently, this is not a coincidence ...
Thank you for your comprehensive response!