Why I think Qantas is not going anywhere and has potential to grow.
The last major lows I could identify happened in similar social disaster time clusters, with the most recent drop being in 2011 which was around the time of the 911 tower tragedy, the second lined up with the last recession in 1994-1996.
Similar to the commodity oil, there is a serious use case which is solidified in our day to day lives, oil is needed to run factories, to fuel vehicles, airplanes and the airline companies are needed to travel (its not like we need soybean to fuel the world in day to day life). So even with the uncertainty that the market has shown the past few weeks, there are still people around the world scrambling to return to their home countries and paying top dollar for connecting flights to try to circumvent regulations, just to be as safe as possible while this uncertainty plays out. (currently there are many Australians stuck in Peru with no foreseeable path home.
While the experts are saying this period of uncertainty could play out for a period of atleast 6 months, technical indicators say otherwise, with some even signalling
an 8 to 12 week period of value hunting the lows.
I do feel like the charts show hope, could we be in the beginning of a 12 month downtrend in the dow and s&p? sure.
But the more I study the charts the more i see that the market likes to tip toe on the brink of disaster only to turn around and show new higher lows, trending channels or pullbacks which with the social pressure and stress of situation are almost hidden ( this also is shown in the highs of a market ). This is why experience and education is imperative when trading speculative assets.
I speculate that if a lower low than the 1994-1996 recession is made, there could an ultimate buy opportunity at the bottom side of the outlined descending channel. anything below there would be unimaginable to me, as the economy would have to be so heavily destroyed and Qantas would almost have to be liquidated for the level to not hold.
It is a very interesting time to be trading and speculating, and opportunities are endless. unfortunately work has dried up for me and I will not be able to get involved. But if I did I would definitely be looking for an entry on Qantas.