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RE: Guess I Was Right About Tesla

in #technology7 years ago (edited)

Agree to disagree here. EV is still backed by electricity produced by coal for the time being. However, the industry is increasingly looking to natural gas because of the depressed prices of oil (and also because the US has vast natural gas / oil reserves). This transition to natural gas is what is reducing coal demand, not solar. And natural gas is just another fossil fuel (to my point of this not being a true solution yet, unlike Stanley Meyer's fuel cell idea). While I agree with you all here backing solar power (it's clearly a much better option) it is not where our power comes from just yet. Solar does not have the scalability (or public support) to meet industrial needs just yet (although that is a very dynamic area of the market).

I find the most interesting thing about Tesla (and other forward trading companies that do not have profits and large debts) is that it is a fantastic company as it relates to innovation, technology, and pushing society forward. However, the one thing I always try to keep in mind is that a great company and a great stock are two different things. It sure appears reasonable to believe that long Tesla is a crowded trade, and short Tesla seems to have a growing camp. So why not just avoid it? Not an uncrowded, low-risk, high-reward setup which is all I find worthy of investment.

It's my opinion that Tesla stock is on the chopping block should the overall market begin to correct. I don't necessarily agree that the Model 3 sales will push stock down, it'll be the credit default cycle rolling over. Doesn't mean I am in the camp of active shorters, just means I am not interested either way in the stock. I Like the company, but not the stock and all I suggest is that the die-hard Tesla bulls reflect on the fact that major auto makers are just now looking to enter the market in a big way since all major governments are creating deadlines for fossil-fuel based cars, creating a wave of competition. Tesla may emerge as the best, but either way energy is too political an investing arena for me, and autos are becoming more intertwined with energy politics as more legislation emerges. Enjoying the banter in this thread, best to all!

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=electricity_in_the_united_states
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.COAL.ZS
https://www.iea.org/topics/coal/

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I just listened to a very interesting episode of the podcast "Science vs". Check out the episode "100% Renewable Energy - Can we do it?"
It talks to scientists about whether or not the US could go 100% Renewable over the next couple of decades.
Some very interesting inputs on the debate.

I'll check it out! Thanks for the recommendation @cryptopet