Conquest over?
Facebook’s growth on the stock market since it went public in 2012 has been impressive (shares have quadrupled in a little over five years), as it repeatedly defied expectations that its membership expansion must slow down. Analysts are almost universally gushing about the company’s prospects – 43 of 48 polled by Thomson Reuters recommend buying shares.
Yet Facebook’s run does have to end at some point. The laws of large numbers can be delayed but not ignored. Globally, Facebook has two-thirds of internet users outside of China. That is approaching the proportions of markets like the UK, where people have had the option to sign up to Facebook for years and decided against it.
No worlds left to conquer
Zuckerberg cannot rely on more of the world merely coming online for growth. That number is rising, but more slowly than the rate at which Facebook itself is growing, even with the company’s focus on making the app work on cheap phones and spotty internet connections.
Facebook is well aware of this and has embarked on deals with mobile operators to provide subsidised data services and made investments in developing its own infrastructure (last week, Facebook announced it had completed the first successful test flight of Aquila, a solar-powered drone it expects will help provide coverage to rural areas).
The company has inconsistently provided investors with other indicators of how hooked its users really are. In April last year it said people spend 50 minutes a day across Facebook itself, its Messenger app and the Instagram photo network, but has been silent on the matter since.
Research from eMarketer suggests the time spent on Facebook itself – the most lucrative of the three properties – will stall this year. It has not updated investors on other crucial metrics, such as how much time its users spend watching videos, in over a year, a further indication that engagement may be flatlining.
Facebook still has a lot going for it. It bought Instagram for a bargain $1bn and it is growing spectacularly. It is succeeding in earning more from each of its users, as advertisers siphon money away from traditional media and into the company’s targeted ad network.
In the last year average revenue per user has risen from $3.32 to $4.23. In the US, where digital advertising is more mature, it is $17. But already being part of a digital advertising duopoly with Google, there is a limit to how much this can continue.
Facebook is running out of internet to conquer. When it does, it will need a new growth story to tell.
But in the meantime, would the real Steemit please stand up.
Steem on!
But already being part of a digital advertising duopoly with Google, there is a limit to how much this can continue.
.
Facebook is running out of internet to conquer. When it does, it will need a new growth story to tell
BUZZKILL
nope...I disagree. There is NO LIMIT....
No end to their r- empires eh! :)
no limit to the attention economy.
On Steemit: no limit to the pressing buttons economy :)
Time for STEEM to take over the market. Not necessarily Steemit Inc. But STEEM in general!
Agreed Jeff - gotta love the STEEM!!
Big tech companies grow after a while, another company takes the place, for example yahoo.
Agreed @eliel - lets hope Steemit can take a small % of that FB decline :)
I feel like Facebook are starting to get desperate to suck more growth out of a dry stone and could have a backlash from developed markets.
For some reason my phone has 8gb which is all used up by the android operating system. Facebook has now switched off the ability to read messages within the webaite on my mobile and forces me to download the facebook messenger app... Which cannot fit on my phone (and doesn't install on the SD card). This is just selected users, since when other people log in on my phone they can read their messages.
Also for marketers and small businesses, they are forcing you to pay for any sort of visibility for content to go viral.
There is no point having a crazy high share price if you have to ruin the product to deliver the expected dividends for shareholders.
Stick with Steemit. Much more simpler :)
For me the biggest problem of the "Fakebook" is its centralized control, aimed to meeting globalist interests.
Thanks for the article :)
Thank the Lord for Ned Scott and Dan Larimer!! :)
why do you say that 'globalists" and 'centralist" have the same goals?
I am wating to see wat crypto will fb relase for them self.a facecoin
Facecoin - no thanks - I'll stick with the STEEM for now :)
Me too but they have te tecnolgy to do that and they have a lot of daily activ
Bittrex isn't processing to btc wallet right now?
Busy July 4th holiday weekend as stated in chat I think?? Peak periods and it just goes down the pooper!
Given up on Bittrex for tonight. Cup of tea made & will wait for ye in chat! :)
Upvoted and followed
Many thanks @pps :)
The wonderful thing about steemit is that the trail has already been blazed. The facebook path is littered with advertisements and data-mining... Steemit has the distinct opportunity to waltz in and scoop up all those interested humans. I'd be seriously surprised if we don't see a million steemit subs by year-end.
Thomas, I agree - I'd love to see a million Steemians and a $5 Steem price before the year end :)
very possible. even probable :)
Yeah makes sense.
I'm sure the real reason behind their failure to provide ongoing updates about metrics that they previously gushed about is due to the limitless humility of The Zuckerberg.
Hmm, I just went to Google to verify the spelling and look at the suggested search terms:
Maybe when he's president, he can just make Facebook a government department?
That Google search is a story in itself @thelbindsquirl!
Did you try it?
I thought the stories about the search results for "Hillary is" were a joke until I tried it myself.
I did! I've also been trying 'Steemit' and your 'Hillary is' :)
I'm sure it has changed since the election but the responses at the time were something like:
Hillary is winning
Hillary is Great
Hillary is a loser!
When you mentioned it I had to go look.
I also saw:
Sick
Back
and most frightening of all
Running again!!!
I really hope he doesn't become president ever.
At this point I don't think it matters who the ringmaster is, the circus is barreling ahead as fast as it can down the tracks towards a cliff.
You mean the American economy?
The economy, politics, education, LGBTQRSTUVWXYZ rights, take your pick.
Ah OK, yeah so many people will run away to African and South America to get a away from it all
Your spending power will go up drastically if you move here.
Not to mention, steemit pays for our content contributions. Peak facebook coming soon.
My next article should be 'The Decline and Decline of Facebook.' :)
They'll be focusing on their revenue per user as you highlighted. Buying more data and advancing their algorithm. Show the ads to the right people at the right time and they'll make much more money.
Steemit just feels so refreshing after the data overload of FB. The web interface is no longer intuitive at all on FB! :(
I believe FB lost a lot when it limited the reach of the posts according with a promotion scheme. I've heard rumors that steemit is heading in the same direction
I don't that would be accepted by many in a truly decentralized system!
Will the real social network please stand up?
Great tune Tishya ... I had to squeeze it in :))
I can see you channelling a bit of slim shady behind the keyboard 😂
Oh yes! Oh yes!! :)
I have heard that, now users are left facebook, andfb really worried about it. They are changing many thing trying to retain users
Everyone knows there will be an en of everything so it started now.
Please bring all your FB friends over to Steemit @angelshare :)
Already initiated the process. :)
:D GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Thank you
Thank you very much.
Great article bud!
Thanks for that @enginewitty :)
Sure thing bud :)
Now we just need tracebook to die and go away.
Fakebook has peaked. Only decline remains ... bring out the Steemit :))
Go STEEMIT!! Steemit will exceed than facebook someday.. And im happy to be part of it
Lets take it to them all Gladys :)
Sure will do.💪
no it wont happen. You want to make a bet.
You dont believe that steemit will grow big like facebook someday?
Impossible. Facebook has 2 bill active users. It helps to keep in touch with your friends and family and share personal updates to your circle. steemit is a blogging platform like redditt. Redditt has 250 mill users. Folks are trying out steemit for the opportunity to make money for their content and the buzz on blockchain. As a platform unless there is an incentive to new users, it will be hard to continue the pace of user growth. Steemit will grow but similar newer block chain content based platforms will get started.
Well you have a point i wont argue with that. Me as well like facebook. Can communicate with the old friends.
I consider facebook as a personal network, linked in as a professional network , and steemit as a internet network. I expect all three of them to exist. How many of your friends on facebook follow you on your redditt acct. I think the overlap on each network is about 20%.
I definitely agree with that statement @ssd213 :)
Good point. If you can only get a tiny piece of people's attention, you are not going to grow much. I agree with you. I have thought about this exact same thing and even wrote a post about how we all own part of facebook. A lot actually.
Rabid hordes! Rabid hordes!!
I did a calculation which showed that Facebook actually owes many steemit users around $135 978 once off (equal to almost 1000 shares in Facebook) and $3 818 per year. Most people could retire right now with that kind of money!
WOW! You need to convert that to Steem Power ... $135K approx. 100K SP! Nice :)
Well, Facebook better do something. I am very interested in money and fiat money. Crypto retains some positive elements of the gold standard. Then, think about how hard it is to steal – almost impossible unless more than half of bitcoin owners are in on it, I am led to believe.
Correct! Guard that steem too @pjcswart, then power it all up :)
In economics class we learned about this one culture where they used these huge sandstone discs for money. I think maybe so it would be harder to steal.
A 52 digit password should suffice here my friend :)
Good point... I am no cryptocurrency expert. My cousin tried to explain it to me once but he lost me pretty quick. That reminds me, he sold his one bitcoin in January for around $700. Bad timing I guess. But he says he needed the money. Anyway, I do know a little about economics and finance and I have always been fascinated by money. Not in the sense that I want more of it (that too), but the mere fact I guess that you can hand someone some pieces of paper and get pretty much anything you want.