One of the perks of being an intelligent species is that we can take the matter of evolution in our own hands. Both biological and of our civilisation. While the biological one is still in the future, the evolution of our civilisation has been happening for a long time now.
From hunters and gatherers to the modern humans, our journey has been a long one and it has entailed countless evolutions of all the different aspects of our civilisation like, societal, economic, political, technological and so on.
Perhaps technological advancement has had the most profound and wide reaching impact on our species, catalysing major shifts just in the last few centuries alone, so much so that someone from 100 years ago, wouldn’t even recognise today’s world.
Well, it seems like we are on the cusp of yet another major shift as we begin to traverse deeper into the 21st century. And this one is about how we work. This shift in particular has always been happening, but this time, it might make it obsolete altogether.
Will Jobs Become Obsolete?
Every individual is a part of the society and contributes to it in some form or the other, making a living in the process. The concept of the ‘modern job’ is not more than a few centuries old and it looks like it is already on its way to obsolescence.
We are already living in a world where driverless cars are a reality, robots are manufacturing our products and drones are even beginning to deliver some of those products at our doorstep.
With the advent of AI (Artificial Intelligence) and the gradual advancements of robotics, we are quickly moving towards a world, where our jobs would be competed for not only by other humans, but by robots and even computer software.
The loss of jobs due to automation has already become a big enough problem for the world leaders to become concerned about and devise ways to deal with their impact and to adapt to this change.
Rest assured, there is no stopping this as technology only moves in one direction and that is forward. As these systems become more advanced, they will mean more loss of jobs across more areas of work.
Right now, mostly blue collar jobs are being affected but slowly, white collar jobs will start getting affected as well. In fact, lawyers, doctors, accountants, analysts, teachers and even politicians will get replaced by machines.
Some people had suggested that at least people with professions that deal with creative stuff like painting, music composing, writing and so on will be safe but they were wrong. Computers are getting better at the creative part too that was once thought to be unique to us humans.
So, the question asks itself, what will we do? If a major portion of the population becomes unemployed, wouldn’t that destroy the current socio-economic landscape? Wouldn’t that cause chaos throughout the world?
Well, this is what worries the smartest minds of the world, which is why ideas like UBI (Universal Basic Income) have been suggested where the citizens of a country will be paid a regular some of money for being a citizen basically. This will be enough to meet their basic needs.
Cryptocurrencies are another area which might be helpful in such a reality. People could mine their own money, or earn it on sites like Steemit or maybe something entirely new will open up! In any case, we might actually be looking at a future where jobs are no more!
A Transformation Like None Before
This raises a lot of questions. If we are not doing any work, and if our basic needs are met by the government or whatever other way that could be developed by then, what would be the point of humanity to exist?
It’s no doubt that AI is being touted as the ultimate invention that will take care of everything else after a certain point. But what does an intelligent species do after that? It would certainly bring forth an existential crisis.
I guess, humanity will need to come up with entirely new pursuits to give meaning to our existence. We can’t see the future and therefore we don’t know how this will unfold, so maybe along the way, there are new developments that ensure that we are kept ‘useful’.
And I think that will indeed be the case or else we are looking at a super utopian world where you just exist! I am not even sure if such a world would be a utopian world or a dystopian one. Maybe we’ll find out one day.
I think the biggest shift will occur when the robot species starts to manage the human species instead of the other way around...
Meanwhile...there has already begun a major disruption in work force skills that gets masked by people earning and living on less or safety net programs...the world has been in a funk for a while...a lot of it has to do with educational skills not keeping up with the technological job advantages...
The countries that emphasize that type of education or parents who have children with the intelligence to go into those fields tend to do very well financially...Meanwhile the rest of us try and scramble for whatever service sector jobs are available...or even less efficient for economy...the government sector jobs that have sky rocketed over the years...
Based on my very limited knowledge of evolution...would seem to me...that survival of the fittest would lead to different gene pools of higher "intelligent" beings that are better able to absorb the changing scientific progression...
I truly believe that young people today have a much different brain capacity to work with a "video" based...non stop informational world compared to my generation...
In fact...having been introduced first hand to the world of someone close to me "on the spectrum"...I think a lot of the explosion in that area is direct result of gene pool changes to handle this new millennial...
Please note...I could be totally off base...just thowing out an opinion from my old pea brain...as well...I am saddened to see the evolution of human kind seems to be leading to human roboids and not beings...the art of pondering is lost and other than self help groups or funerals...humans are less able to show emotions...
So for me its less about the end of jobs but more the end of humanity as I thought it should be...
I thank you greatly for the topic and well thought out article...thank you for a forum to allow all this to spill out as its obviously something I wrestle with...
That's a very good point you make and I totally agree with you on every single thing you say!! I hadn't even thought about this until I was reading your comment. Thanks for this wonderful insight. Greatly appreciated :)
Appreciate the kind thoughts...
Like an 1984 situation, but with more robots?
Could be.
there are some dark aspects to all of this and the rate it is at, it is getting to be frightening
Yes...things can grow slowly for years then hit a tippping point where growth becomes exponential...
The point of humanity to exist would be to experience life and find new ventures for mankind.
I personally think that things don't really just boil down to having a job. There are many other things in life that can help an individual to progress and help society as a whole.
Much love for the great article
I work in the IT sector, n I can the change comin. Automation is takin over
If order for people to not have jobs it will really take a change in human consciousness. If you suddenly take the McDonalds fry cooks job away it doesn't mean they'll suddenly start contributing. It could go good or really bad. It could also give government almost total control over the entire population = a very scary proposition.
So it would be very similar to "Star Trek"? ;)
Yes, exactly, new ventures would be needed for mankind without which there would be no point. You are right, things don't really boil down to having a job but in a world, where every single thing is done for you, the question arises what we will do. Hopefully we develop some human-only ventures to keep ourselves occupied.
Of course it would. Self-sustaining communities are our only solution. System where money is on first place produces what we call job or profession. That woudn't exist in that way like today in self-sustaining community.
And when two children are born at the sametime, and the "Self Sustaining community" can only support one more mouth to feed, who dies? I have seen too many Sci-Fi movies of "Utopia" to know it is only Utopia for the few, same with self sustaining communities.
Yes, obviously you saw to many propaganda movies that tell bullshit story that we can't live in peace and prosperety. Truth is opposite. Your imagination of self sustaining communities is distorted.
I guess it depends on a person's view of self sustaining community.
My view/definition of: sustaining community:
They need nothing from outside of their community. They make, build, grow, and produce everything they need in order to survive.
I just do not see that ever happening. We do not need self serving self sustained communities. What we need is a self sustaining planet.
I totally agree with you. Meaning of phrase 'Self sustaining' is different for everyone of course. What I mean by that is in beggining at least few communities that are close to self-sustaining. Then they can trade food or whatever. More of those communities, the more we gonna be free. In the end self sustaining planet.
Yeah, self-sustaining communities world wide seems like a viable direction humanity can go.
In fact, there already are jobs where human being is not need anymore or is less needed. For example cashiers in shops. Stores service is being replaced by self services. And this system works very well for me as customer. Queues are smaller and service is faster.. 10 years ago I couldn't even imagine that it is possible.. Nowadays I use it every day.
I didn't belive in self-driving taxis last year.. today it is on testing already..
World is changing very fast..
Yeah, the jobless due to automation has already started and this trend is only going to expand in the future.
@sauravrungta - An intriguing question indeed. I believe, at least initially, there will be widespread chaos because the people who invent and execute automation will derive maximum benefits of savings from automation. They will not care how many jobs are lost as long as they keep getting richer. As you point out, many jobs will get lost in all sorts of categories. However, after passage of some time, as widespread unemployment becomes a global phenomenon, the buying power will drastically reduce everywhere. This will create a situation where there will be drastic reduction in the demand for products of those automated empires and they will start declining too. At this point, if a concept for 'communal creation and sharing' evolves (like our ancestors - who used to hunt and gather together and the whole tribe was taken care of) then, people will have 'duties' for the communities and not jobs. There will be no payment involved but basic needs and sustenance of society members will be taken care of by the whole community. Starts sounding like communism at this point doesn't it? Well - I guess we are destined to have such cycles of society models. What do you feel?
Man - you write profound blogs. They make me use the old noodle brain a bit. By comparison, my blogs must look very simplistic! I request you to take a look and provide feedback if possible whenever you have time. Thanks
Regards,
It is not that some instant, all at once "widespread automation" will be thrown at the society on some given day, by some rich evil dude.... In reality, these things are coming in gradually and the very fact of this post gaining such high popularity tells us that our society is in a state of full awareness and readiness to address possible negative effects of technological innovations. But I guess, from another hand, entertaining the extreme, doomsday like scenarios, is probably as important part of the process.
Yes, it will be gradual and the chaos will be too. When it becomes too much and hits a critical point, then things will crumble.
I find it ironic how the corporations use automation to derive more profits but by putting the population out of work, it would ultimately mean lower profits! What goes around, comes around! I think we will shift towards a world where everything is done for us and the concept of "class" is no more. It might be wishful thinking but it's how I think right now. We may have a world where, as you say, we have duties rather than jobs which only a human can perform. Who knows what kind of a crazy world it would be a 100 years down the line.
BTW, you have a great blog yourself. Those photos are amazing :D
Well - I guess in our generation we will certainly continue the chaotic development of automation. Perhaps our grand children will live in a world with duties and not jobs.
Thanks for your kind words of appreciation of my photos. I usually also pen down a few thoughts that the photos prompt. I request you to take a look once in a while. Thanks
I do not mind stop working today as long as some robot will do it for me and make money for me
first transform this politicians
I always wonder if everything becomes automated and companies get rid of employees how will they survive if they have an unemployed population with no income to buy thier products.
Exactly! What goes around comes around. It is ironic that they will automate things to derive more profits but with an unemployed population, those profits will end up being non-existant!
This is really true,the world is moving at a very fast rate which we cannot stop.
The old way of doing things no longer works in the 21st century.
It is absurd we have many people who still believe in the old way of
Things have shifted at a way we cannot imagine.
The emergence of A.I has and will make the already few jobs obsolete.
As you suggested of some countries adopting a Universal Basic Income,this will not even help.
People need to adjust and find new ways of working.
At the moment Steemit is a blessing and more people should embrace it.
For the first time ever people can utilize a greater percentage of their minds probably more than 30% of brain power because of Steemit.
Let us continue mining Steemit with our minds and discover the hidden potential we have in us.
Steemit is the future.
agreed :)
Yeah, believe it or not, the "Study hard,get a degree and get a job!" is still the go to status quo among humans today!
A great read with well placed words. Although, I do not think that this is a real threat, at least for now. For example, trains run on tracks and a big part of them operate automatically, yet every train has a driver, because machines will always need a human interference at some point. So maybe this will eliminate some jobs, but at the same time create new ones, where we become the watchers and supervisors for the machines?
"So maybe this will eliminate some jobs, but at the same time create new ones" This statement was true about a few decades ago but now, it no longer is. You see, computers equipped with AI will be sooooo smart that they would be self sustaining in a way. No humans required whatsoever!
In case of machine dominance, there'll be a hell lot of maintenance jobs out there since machines can't take care of themselves :D
What I am saying is that with machine and AI evolution, the concept of jobs will rather evolve, not vanish entirely.
Machines and AI can only be as intelligent as we teach them to be. They can't by any means evolve like us living beings. So as long as the human element is involved in their development, the people are not going to run out of jobs.
"Machines and AI can only be as intelligent as we teach them to be." Not true at all. They are developing AI systems which do not require any human input whatsoever. There are AI systems already that can change their own code to make themselves smarter without any human intervention whatsoever.
Ever since I was a young child, I envisioned the future as a place where jobs didn't t make sense. with machines and AI even in the 90s I assumed they would one day remove the need for all jobs. but even then as a 6 year old I assumed the world would find its meaning with culture and art. because ones our jobs disappear and every thing we need or want comes at just a thought. I believe we will trade art and human made entertainment. I truly think this will be a beautiful world and place to live once we remove our want (not need) for our current way of life.
Such a utopian world has been the dream of many people for ages. A world where our basic needs are met in one way or the other without us having to work for it and we are free to pursue whatever we want to. Yes, we could find meaning in culture and art but I think there is a huge part of the population that are not into this creative stuff and are more left brained. I wonder how they would adjust.
It would be a strange future for humans without employment, we would maybe lack purpose. However it could be a utopian world where all of our needs are taken care of by 'our machines'. Law and order would be automated via data banks of legal precedents, maybe a human judge would be needed to sporadically intervene. Humans could use their time for creative and leisure persuits and all of the future technological innovations could be in the hands of the AI. There was an old poem I remember from school that went something like, more machines, more machines, make more machines. That would be the reality, endless versions and iterations of the AI we initially created.
An alternative would be a dark future of forced unemployment for all where there is no incentive to strive and innovate. There would be equal sharing of the wealth equity which sounds like a bleak communist state where the robots are the regime that run the whole show.
It would certainly be a strange world regardless of if it becomes a utopian one or a dystopian world. It is also strange that this might not be that far away. We are talking at most a century from now which is not that far off. Really strange how quickly things are changing.
I always thought... How will jobs become obsolete? How will AI's automate most jobs humans nowadays have?
Then I heard about the Blockchain.
Yeah, it's bound to happen someday!
work very well
I love it and love to follow you
vest plz follow me @mudatnad and give me want value from esteem.t
thank you
Maybe they'll be replaced with things akin to hobbies... that you enjoy doing but don't NEED to do to survive because normal needs are taken care of by self-sustainable homes... also depends how far in the future we're talking about, when the AI take over, or after the nuclear fallout? ;)
I also would like to think that humanity reaches a point where the basic needs are met and are no longer a subject of stress and we can all finally pursue what we would really like to do in life without having the slightest hint of fear of failure.
I like the mining bit; however humans are creative when it comes to survival for the fittest. Robots for instance may only work on job processes that are fixed and require human input to complete.
On the other hand,the extend of job loss will be first felt in developed countries before the developing ones gets hit.
In the future, computers will be so smart that they wouldn't even need human input. In fact, many AI systems are being developed right now as we speak that don't need any human input and some of them are already functional!!
Interesting article, must say, but I think the jobs will be here always, maybe not in concept like we have here and now, but people will aways do something :)
Yes, people will always do something and I think they will be able to pursue their true passions in a world where jobs don't exist. That can happen only if the basic needs of these humans are fulfilled by some other way.
Oh man, I wouldn't mind not having a job! LOL. I would just paint all day, even if a computer is better than me. :)
Great thought though... really what would we do if our civilization got that advanced. Maybe we just all pursue happiness and fun.
hahah me too!! I would just play video games all day or travel around the world. 6 months for each ;)
ugh that sounds amazing. future can you please come any sooner! BTW I've never seen the Matrix, but after your red and blue pill story, I started watching it. I only go 30 minutes in because I got sleepy, but I plan on watching the rest tonight! ekkk how crazy!
Working in IT company, I can feel the pain. With automation coming for all technology not sure if techies will last anymore.
A lot of jobs are in danger. According to an Oxford study about 47% of jobs will be in danger in just the next 25 years!
I think very soon Artificial Intelligence will take over soon. Well said bruv
Yup, experts predict it will be by 2050. Let's see. That's well within our lifetime.
if i can evolve into being more lazy.... that would be nice :)
LOL, If such a thing happens, I think at least half of the population would immediately succumb to the couch life.
Very interesting! However, I think we'll reach a point where we can't replace more people. At least it won't be in our lifetime, that the robots with people.
Well the singularity (where the AI becomes smarter than humans) is expected to take place in 2050 or even before that. I would say, that is within our lifetime.
Seems rather depressing to me, but i keep my optimism and hope there will be new inventions that will keep humankind busy while AI takes care of more and more sections...
Yes, at first sight it is, but that's mainly because we can't even begin to predict what the future holds. Maybe we will come up with some human-specific activities that will keep us all busy.
This is exactly what could happen!
ape species are stronger and sharper than human @sauravrungta
??
We're still hundreds of years away from this in my opinion. I work at a steel mill and while it's not nearly as labor intensive as it was 100 years ago and won't be nearly as labor intensive 100 years from now as it is today, we're a long ways off from 0 human intervention. Until robots can troubleshoot, fix, and create new technologies the steel mill will always need some sort of human interaction.
You are forgetting something. Technology advances at an exponential rate not a linear rate. So, the advancements made in the last 100 years, will be made in just a decade or two. And many experts predict that the technological singularity is bound to happen in 2050 or even before that. When that happens, the need for humans will be essentially over as AI would become so intelligent that it could develop itself as a self sustaining "species".
a very good post and I really like your posts
Thank you :)
get a job...
Something people won't be able to say in the future.
I recommend you to read "Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies" - Nick Bostrom. It is a book that will answer to your questions and is well documented.
See you in digital!
Thanks for this. Will check it out for sure if it can give me some answers.
Hi @sauravrungta - Great article! I've also pondered this question quite a bit after starting my AI company. I think there is still quite a bit of hype around the marketing of AI and what it can and will mean for society. I'm not to saying there aren't potential dangers, but talking to developers know the limitations, but the layperson tends to just listen to tweets by Elon Musk. Right now I believe AI will be a tool we'll use to upgrade our cognitive abilities, first through tools that make our lives easier, then later some kind of integration system. I still think we need to get the billions of people who aren't online up and running and acclimate them to that huge change in their lifestyle. There is a lot to do :). Keep these posts coming!
Oh it will take some time for sure and these are things that won't simply happen over night. The shift could be gradual but yes, it is something that might very well happen.
I don't trust robots!!!!
What if they are reading this and come after you? ;)
damn well im fuck'd then
@sauravrungta Thanks for sharing your activities with finding up and jogging. The 1st yrs tend to be the hardest. We are at our for six yrs non-halt.Carry on Performing at it. Perseverance and exertions tend to be the keys to results.
While not a Marxist, I'm very sympathetic to Marx's view of work in relation to humanity - that through transforming things we come to 'know ourselves' - so that if left to our own devices many of us choose to 'work' - think of people growing their food on allotments, or lads working on their cars.
So if automation takes over many jobs, which it will do (I think bricklaying is one of those high up the list too!) I think we'll still choose to work, it brings meaning to life. Work won't disappear with automation.
Jobs on the other hand, which here I'll associate with work we do to earn an income (work which we don't necessary identify with) is often an entirely different form of work.
Ideally we'd reorganize the economy so that we've all got a basic minimum income, get the bots to do the shitty necessary jobs and then we'd all be free to pursue whatever meaningful work we wish to., or sit around playing WOW.
Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars Trilogy is an interesting account of how an intensified technologically mediated work might be different in the future....
:) i like your point of view. I followed just based on your name, then read your comment and am feeling inspired :)
Those are exactly my thoughts on the matter as well! Completely agreed :)
We will know we have reached the tipping point when someone invents a robot that can install a kitchen sink, hook up the water lines correctly, not have any leaks, and doesn't need someone to help them crawl out from under the sink because their body refuses to work right after the half hour or more of cramped, impossible to reach, position that needed to be maintained for proper installation to occur.
Yes, that would be the first hint and I would start packing my bags as soon as I hear this news ;)
The thing about it is, history is so long... in thousands of years they will laugh at the dumb apes we are now. Peace !
haha yeah!! I think that is bound to happen :D
One more point... could future AI actually form a government or even be expected to form a government. This is by far my favourite subject albeit frightening!
Yes, why not. I think there are some sci-fi novels based around this as well. Governance is basically decision making and that's what AI does best!
YES YES YES!!! THis is my mission, I am living it now for over 2 years! :) Love the idea of EVERYONE joining me and living a life of bliss, health and gift economy!
Let's hope it becomes a utopian world then. Because the opposite is quite scary!
Thanks for this well-written post. I've also been hypothesizing lately that we are on the cusp of a major revolution in the way we all work. It's nice to feel the sense of optimism instead of despair because of platforms like Steemit giving us other options.
Yeah, we can hope for the best because there are signs of developments that could actually lead us to a brighter future despite all the shifts.
All jobs can be taken over by artificial intelligence, even people like me who are getting into software development and AI will be able to do the job in an instant. Guess I better make enough money to sustain myself in my remote little town I create for humans to have work. The dystopian future of humans will soon begin!
What if because of the non-existence of jobs, the economy crumbles and then we don't have the concept of money at all?
AI will implement crypto-currency being digital and all and control the majority of the economy.
The good thing is that we, as the society, are at least aware of the possible negative impact on our everyday lives by tech innovations and the "smartest minds of the world" are at least bringing the issue up:
Original: Elon Musk: ‘Robots will be able to do everything better than us’
...here: Elon Musk: ‘Robots will take your jobs, government will have to pay your wage’. The UBI was actually not only suggested, but to a degree even implemented. I think this article at Futurism is a good overview, with some case studies and names of some famous UBI proponents.
Elon Mask also proposed a possible solution to the issue by implementing the "regulatory oversight " of Artificial Intelligence development. Do you think this could work? ... and if so, what should the format of such regulations be?
Will we all be living on a subsidy government check and have to do what they say. Doesn't mean everyone will be happy about it. I see it happening with the fast food restaurants trying to use less employees and more robots. we are in the beginning stages of it now.
UBI right now is being tested but is still very limited. I think Finland is leading the charge there. Yes, a regulatory oversight could work but it AI is not bound to a single country. Even if some countries develop these oversights, there might be some that don't and AI could develop unchecked there and then could be spread around the world in its high-tech, world changing form. Just some thoughts off the top of my head.
I think that humans are in a way beasts of burden and will want something to do with their time that makes their life meaningful. A lot of one's identity is tied to the nature of what they do; literally to the point that a person usually takes their name from their trade. This phenomenon appears to be true regardless of culture, and with automation significantly affecting the human condition, one cannot help but wonder how would people cope on such a time where the individual contribution is not "needed". Sure there are those who would seek to "actualize" and try to live out their existence meaningfully, but it is also true that it is in a person's nature to make meaningful work, a way to express themselves fully through the impact of their actions; and this should not be taken away, through automation or not.
I agree and I think only time will tell.
As the technology evolved, new inventions are coming in and it change they way how people do their daily tasks. As it is continue to change, people can find a place where they can still be useful in society. Maybe a better place for human, not for robots.
Let's hope that happens.
Voted up. As an additional point: "jobs" are obsolete in the way that humans will be liberated. I believe you'll be interested in this: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@robertgenito/the-future-of-money-is-not-crypto-currency-part-5-of-5
Yes, liberation for sure. I just hope we find meaning in this liberation.
Of course we will! After liberation, humanity's time is freed up to use its creative powers. Creativity is the root of all of our advances...we are "creators"!
Let's say blockchain ledgers end up causing many bookkeepers to "lose their jobs". I mention this superficially to illustrate that there are people that will perceive this as people "losing" something, when there is a positive side of gaining. So say humanity's collective "bookkeeping" effort is a combined 1.2 billion human hours per year. After the social maturity of blockchain ledger technology, humanity's collective bookkeeping efforts go down to 0.4 billion hours per year. That means that 0.8 billion hours per year were freed up (humanity "liberated") from the tedious and mindless bookkeeping work. Because humanity was given back these many hours, humanity may now allocate that time to humanity's creative efforts, such as developing better ways to do work, help one another, and improve our environment :)
I agree that the process of increasing automation is unstoppable and jobs as we know them will be gone.
UBI is a total fraud. Look at communities where people do not have to work but are supported by welfare. They are violent, hopeless, despairing and defeated. Take this formula and then expand it to the total population. It's not going to work. It's a fairy tale that they hope will work.
Steemit has a lot of issues but as an idea it is moving towards an alternative to UBI.
i think it is now?
"Well, this is what worries the smartest minds of the world, which is why ideas like UBI (Universal Basic Income) have been suggested where the citizens of a country will be paid a regular some of money for being a citizen basically. This will be enough to meet their basic needs."
If the citizens no longer have jobs, where will the money for Universal Basic Income come from?
Congratulations @sauravrungta!
Your post was mentioned in the hit parade in the following category:
I have also thought about this in the past and came to the conclusion that it would benefit everyone in the world, I would allow people to do what they want, when they want.
People would be spending more time with their families and doing the things we all want to do, but never get around to doing or can't afford the time and money to do it, like I love hunting and fishing, but I rarely get the time to get around to doing it.
The other thing is that it would bring the rich and poor closer together and we will have less violent riots and things like that.