This is a subject that came to my attention about 3 years ago and something that I followed intently. It is one of great controversy since we "heard it before". This is often the response in the technical community. However, it is a subject that also garnered the attention of such notables as Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and Bill Gates. These technological titans seem to understand what the future holds and it seems that jobs are not in the cards.
What is technological unemployment? Quite simply it is the loss of jobs due to technology. We witnessed this in the 1800s when the cotton gin made the separation of seeds an automated process. This reduced the need for human interaction in the process and increased productivity. Since that time we have seen it in a number of fields. The best example over the past 30 years is the reduction in personnel required in automobile manufacturing. Assembly lines now are full of robots who actually build the cars. This is something that, again, increased productivity while improving the end product. It is crucial to remember that robots dont call in sick, arent hung over, and dont have bad days. The same cannot be said for people.
I remember when the debate over automation started in the car industry. The UAW, the union that represents the workers, fought hard against automation. They wanted to keep the job. I guess you could say they waged a good fight but, in the end, lost. The number of people in an automobile factory compared to 40 years ago is a stark contrast. Cars are built by robots, there is no debate about that. In fact, while manufacturing jobs are down significantly in the US, our manufacturing production is the highest it has ever been. You read that correct. If you look at the statistics, US manufacturing is at an all time high. So much for the myth that we do not build anything anymore. That simply is not true. What is true is that we build much more with a whole lot less people. This is what caused the massive job displacement in the blue collar arena.
Which brings us to the crux of the problem. The decline in manufacturing jobs is well known. We saw it in the last election. Many people in rural areas voted for the candidate who promised to "bring the jobs back". Well, that was a nifty campaign promise yet is impossible to do. The fact that the jobs were not lost to China and Mexico like was claimed means that they cannot return from there. There are a number of studies done over the past 10 years that all conclude the same thing; 80%-85% of US job loss was due to.......technology. Therefore, unless we are willing to turn back the clock 40 years, the jobs are not coming back.
What makes the situation worse is that not only are the blue collar jobs not returning, now we are starting to see automation eliminate jobs in the white collar arena. The term "being Amazoned" is starting to enter the mainstream vocabulary. Companies left and right in the retail segment are being attacked because of the shift to online. Even the imperial predator, Wal-Mart, found itself prey to this new breed Goliath. Basically, we have an industry that is upheaval. While we cannot predict how it will turn out we can say that as the shift from physical to digital takes place, jobs will be lost.
Sadly, the devastation in the retail sector is only the beginning. Automation is entering the legal environment putting legal researcher and paralegal jobs at risk. The accounting field was first hit by quickbook and then Turbotax. Now we are seeing online accounting services putting enormous pressure on the small accounting firms. Watson, IBM's AI computer, is already doing cancer scans with a lower error rate than seasoned radiologists. Autonomous cars are predicted to crush the cab industry. Truck drivers are in jeopardy of being replaced by the same autonomous technology. Robotic bricklayers are already being dispatched around the world, laying brings at a pace of more than 500 per hour. 3D printed structures have already been put up in under 24 hours. Even the Commissioner of Major League baseball stated yesterday that ball and strikes can be called by a computer and lasers. There just went 1/4 of the umpiring jobs. And I could keep adding to this list but you get the drift.
It has been estimated that by 2040, somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 the jobs in the world will be eliminated due to technology. So what you say? Technology has always destroyed jobs while, at the same time, creating other ones. I agree with that. Over the years, jobs were lost in certain areas due to technology while entire industries sprung up elsewhere. We need to look no further than the computer and Internet industries. They employ millions of people now when, 40 years ago, there were probably maybe 10,000. This is a trend many believe will continue, hence why there is nothing to fear. if that is the case, what is it that has the like of Musk, Zuckerberg, and Gates on edge? Why would these technological successes be speaking out about a problem that always solved itself? What is it they know?
The answer to that question is speed. In the past, technological displacement took time. Technology was slow moving. We made incredible progress and it was exponential. The only different it took decades to implement. An example of this is with phones. It took over 60 years for 70% of the US to get a phone in their homes. From the time it first hit the market, it took 7 years for 70% of the country to have a smart phone. The pace of implementation was accelerated. It took GE decades to become a billion dollar company; Instagram was sold for over a billion dollars after 18 months. The first digital camera was invented in the 1970s but it took until 2012 for the top film company, Kodak, to file bankruptcy who, ironically, had developed the digital camera. It took Netflix less than 10 years to basically wipe out Blockbuster. Repeatedly we see the acceleration of technology disrupting industries and even eliminating them. It is for this reason why, this time, is truly different.
The other aspect to the impending technological unemployment is the fact that the jobs that will be created over the next 10 years will be unlike those we saw in the past. How are the people I mentioned who are already in the process of being eliminated going to compete in the new work environment. The skills of the past 30 years do not translate into what is being created today. A century plus ago, when we moved from an agricultural to an industrial age, you could take someone and shift them. Someone who worked in a field could be put on the line in a factory with minimal training. For the most part, the work was still physical. However, you cannot take a car sales person and have them writing virtual reality games. The paralegal who loses her job cannot be retrained to program robotics. The jobs over the next ten years will require a basis in mathematics, the sciences, and computer coding. These are not fields that were a focus of the US university system over the past few decades. Instead we churned out lawyers and finance people in droves. Isn't it wonderful that those are two arenas which lend themselves to artificial intelligence. And my friends, that is what our technological geniuses see...the speed of AI is absolutely mind boggling. This is not something that is going to take place 15 or 20 years down the road. It will occur in the next 5-10.
The world has a major crisis on its hands. It really is that simple. Many in the tech field along with the political leadership choose to deny this. Again, they believe that this time will be like all the other times. Even people in the computer field lean on the fact that they heard this same rant for the past 25 years. Computers were suppose to eliminate massive jobs since the mid 1990s and it did not happen. Hence, they believe it will not happen this time. I can assure you, they are wrong. Over the past 8 years I watched what is going on in the tech arena very closely. During that time, I notice an idea would start in the science or obscure technology sites. Perhaps a couple PHDs discovered a breakthrough in something and wrote a paper about it. That was usually the end of it until someone else picked the idea up and then it would show up on the more mainstream tech sites but still hidden from the general public. After that, once things started to get rolling, the technology would find its way to the business/investment sites. And finally, after all that, it would appear in the mainstream publications.
I imagine this process is how it always worked since the net because a regular part of our lives. What leads me to the conclusion that this time is, indeed different, is the pace which I see this process played it. Today, it is not uncommon for something to appears on a physics site and be on the investment pages only a couple years later. Something goes from a scientific breakthrough to an applicable technology in under 24 months. That is incredible. Take autonomous cars. Only 3 years ago, they were estimating that there would be autonomous technology by 2025. Now, only every major car company says they will have it by 2021. Notice how, not only was the timeline moved up but also the level of penetration within the industry. It went from the tech might exist to everyone will have it and hour years sooner than everyone expects. As an aside, Elon Musk claims that he will have a car making a trip from LA to NYC in autonomous mode this year. If he does it, that means the timeline was moved up by 8 years in less than 40 months.
And that is it in a nutshell. What makes this time different? The astounding speed with which we are moving. Technology is proceeding at such a pace the job loss will be tectonic. Many are already predicting this. I hope this article shows you how and why it is happening.
If you found this article helpful, plus upvote and resteem it. This is an idea that has to get out there.
Also, follow me because I will be following this up with a concept that addresses this problem. Ironically, it was nothing more than a fringe idea 18 months ago and now it is getting mainstream consideration.
Images found on Google Images
Important term. Great book is "End of Work" by Jeremy Rifkin
Thank you for that article – I'm too concerned about that kind of development. I'll resteem your article with pleasure and hope it finds many readers! @OriginalWorks
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Thank you for that....it is an important message.
I appreciate all your help.
Interesting stuff. I am curious about the future and disappearance of jobs too. Normally this applies to low wage jobs, but with the advent of blockchain I am seeing large corporations being made obsolete entirely when blockchain variants enter the scene and outcompete them. It will be CEO's, administrative workers, HR departments, lawyers, accountants, etc. as well as the low wage workers who are employed by tech giants.
On the flipside, maybe by then we will all be making money by default by our participation in the blockchain ecosphere earning income 'passively' with things such as Steemit or other platforms?
yea manual labor jobs requiring machines to do. Human capital jobs not only require less machines but perhaps more computation, but usually pay more so replacing them is more profitable.
I think you nailed it. It isnt only the blue collar and low wage jobs that are affected. The upcoming employment problem will be experienced by what is left of the middle class. This is really going to start turning some heads. It is easy to ignore those in rural areas or at the low end of the spectrum. However when people making decent money cant find work, then people will start to notice.
As for the solution, without breaking the surprise of my next article, I think blockchain can help. That said, I am not sure how many will be able to take advantage of it. And I am sure the FB abd Google will keep their stranglehold to some degree. They arent about to let steemit, as an example, come in and clear their clock...not without a fight anyway.
Great article! Looking forward to the follow up.
Hey thats...I have to let my fingers rest...lot of typing lol.
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