The reasoning behind this price analysis doesn't make a lot of sense. In a world of markets based on reason, maybe... But this world doesn't exist.
If this theory would be correct, there would be a lot of selling pressure on bitcoin as most of the bitcoin mined needs to be sold to pay for the electricity cost. Certainly a lot more needs to be sold than the 8 or 9% inflation STEEM has at the moment.
The price of a certain crypto currency is fully based on speculation and in the belief the price will go up or down. Bitcoin maximalism is on the rise at the moment, so the price of bitcoin goes up.
Alt season will come one day, but not all alts will be included. Only the major ones where people believe there are fundamentals.
Now that STEEM has slipped passed place 80 on CMC, it is not a given STEEM will ever recover. Just like you, I can see there is a lot of development going on on STEEM, but it really doensn't matter because the project is perceived as a failed project by the broader crypto audience.
This sentiment can be turned around, but the longer it takes the more difficult it will become.
It doesn't mean the price can't go up again. But at this moment I don't see how STEEM could become a top 20 or 30 cryptocurrency once again.
Don't be blinded by what you perceive to be fundamentals, in the end it will not matter. You are way to convinced this project will succeed while the chances of that happening are getting slimmer and slimmer everyday, regardless of the development and community efforts.
I agree it's not really about the price..but when you just look at the position you see that steem is falling back each weekend, once it falls out of 100 it's almost game over.
how many coins do you know that are outside the top 50,top100? To be honest I do maybe 2 or 3.
Even if LIBRA is not a real decentralized platform once its introduced to 2 Billion people why should they even consider a (social media) platform that none of theire friends are using?
There are a lot of red flags here, I do not sell my stake for at least another year but things going down here.
In my opinion, every company in the world is working on a daily basis to develop new strategies,so this argument doesnt count. steem had 2,3 years time to get in a good starting position, today it seems like we losing ground every week.
Recovering from below market cap 100 would indeed be difficult, I agree.
A drastic rebranding is needed for STEEM, something that shows something totally new is coming.
For STEEM to gain momentum again, a clear break with the past is needed. Something that shows to the broader crypto world this project is worth in investing in.
There is less bitcoin sold from mining than steem inflation. Steem inflation is around 8%. Mining inflation for btc is a bit lower than 4%.
Also, Steemit, Inc is selling millions of steem per year, which if I remember correctly represent half the amount of the inflation.
So steem selling pressure is 12% of the supply per year.
More importantly, trading volume on bitcoin is very high, so any selling pressure is going to get eaten up by liquidity. But the steem markets are totally illiquid, so selling pressure will get the price down.
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Sure, I agree.
But with bitcoin, you also need to pay for the electricity. That certainly puts selling pressure on the miners creating new bitcoin.
On STEEM, there is no such selling pressure. There is the inflation, and indeed Steemit Inc. selling their portion gradually.
The liquidity and velocity of bitcoin certainly help to absorb this more easily.