Very interesting post. I wanted to point out one thing that I am observing in these weeks while i try to analyze markets: that in this world featured by
- no possibility of fundamental analysis (you don't have any form of financial statement)
- No possibility of market analysis (you are thinking to a new product with new tecnology, you cannot evaluate the potential real market for a token)
- small market cap with a lot of whales that control price
- a lot of weak hands and new traders that are usually trend-follower, increasing price spikes
Traditional methods based on fundamental analysis fall. So pump groups/tweets/posts/articles are the main factor for moving and/or analyzing the market, because there isn't a fundamental value that can be taken as a reference for the entire market. You can predict future price... only basing on past price, because in this market psychology is all.
So yes, having a great follower base is a great responsibility. you have to consider that 1) you speak to traders that, just like you, don't have enought information to calculate what is the precise market situation (because of the lack of transparency) 2) you can create a big movement.. because psychology is all.
PS: Also because of these factor maybe technical analysis (that analyzes only price) can be considered as an interesting analysis tool.. Combined of course with more analysis (for example correlation between different cryptos and between altcoin and bitcoin). I study economy at univerisity and i can say - basing on scientific literature - that in efficient markets technical analysis is bullshit. But here, in crypto, maybe it can be useful if combined with other analysis tools