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RE: Thoughts on trading analysis and signals

in #trading7 years ago

Yes, regulation can stop a lot of unqualified financial advisors - just like those pump groups/channels/tweets etc...
But - as I have written in another comment (sorry for copy-and-paste of this 5 lines list..) we are trying to analyze a market featured by:

  • No possibility of fundamental analysis (you don't have any form of financial statement)
  • No possibility of market analysis (you are thinking to a new product with new tecnology, you cannot evaluate the potential real market for a token)
  • Small market cap with a lot of whales that control price
  • A lot of weak hands and new traders that are usually trend-follower, increasing price spikes

Prices are ruled, even more than in traditional and regulated markets, by psychologycal factors. so, as you perfectly said, "anyone with a huge following can now make a coin go up or down with their expert analysis". In traditional and regulated market, volatility is controlled also by two other factors:

  • Investors can diversify, so there is less volatility because big operators have a more stable market portfolio that allows them to HODL and reduce risks. This is impossible in crypto markets because diversification, in a short - medium term, is unuseful: Bitcoin goes down? China Bans? Great exchanges are banned? All crypto falls, because bitcoin is the real market maker of all the market - so all crypto follow bitcoin
  • Crypto markets was born with small capitalizations. Early adopters have mined even hundred of thousands of bitcoin and/or easiliy bought altcoin in ICOs, years ago, when in a lot of cases prices that were 1/1000 of current prices (Ethereum at 2$ and for a long period under 1$ is the best example of easy accumulation). So, there are huge whales.

In traditional market volumes are controlled by with hyper-tecnologic actors like High Frequency Traders https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/high-frequency-trading.asp that can destroy markets for fractions of seconds but don't create a panic sell/panic buy (too fast, they only kill stop loss users). And in every case regulators - unless, as everytime happens, they are colluded - have the tecnologycal analysis tools and the lawful attributions to interview.

So yes, by this point of view we need of a stron regulation. Think also to all scammed users that now have left the market because there were no law and none kind of legal guarantee..