It is very interesting to look at the charts. I'm playing the lesser ranges but eyeing the longer frames. On the 12 we are still below the 7/21 or both below the 77MA, so it is going to provide solid resistance to the upside, on the 1 day, the 7 has crossed beneath the 21 signaling slow death or a sideways ranging action until longer term trend line can catch up. On the 2 we have golden cross which puts short term gains on the table, up to the longer term averages of the 6 hour at which point it will likely be rejected for the low end of the range. This time is great for trading if you know what you are doing and have discipline. Great to get fucked if you are chasing the dragon by the tail or jumping in and out with FOMO and panic sells. I love markets like this as it is when the traders trade, and those that failed to invest in themselves with knowledge slowly donate their capital to the market..
When two men meet, one with experience and one with money. At the end, the one with the experience leaves with the money and the one that had the money leaves with experience. --Warren Buffet
That's a great Buffet quote. Oh how true it is!
As for your TA, I think I have to agree across the board. I'm very inclined to think we're going to see another test of lows, or at least more consolidation at the lower end of the range, before we do anything else.
I'll be watching closely using the techniques developed by Richard Wyckoff as described by Jim Forte:
https://es.scribd.com/document/28001506/Anatomy-of-a-Trading-Range-by-Jim
Well then great minds think a like, I believe we could see BTC move in a more normal fashion wants it does decide to go up. Instead of climbing like there is no tomorrow it may pick a longer term trend line at some point and use that to make less volatile moves up. I'm not sold on a full recovery as of yet, but happy to play the ranges. I think page 54 of the book you provided sums it up. May see a BTC bump up.. seems to be holding tight to the $14,800 -$15.000 range..
Jumped the creek today. John Bollinger said that he likes to think of the 20 DMA as a "dynamic" creek. Looking for signs of strength now. Will we get them? A trip up to the top of the range? Already? The 61.8% failure level for the daily halfway back short has been breached to the upside too.
I grabbed some at $14,800 you can check my daily market report.. will catch the pull and sideways in the $16000-$16500 area, likely a $15,700 to be had as well.
The odds of us seeing 20k in the short term are getting better as we speak. The 15,700 touch on Bittrex was another measured move 50% retrace entry on the one hour chart (slightly front run though). Nice stair stepping and back filling. Looks very technical, and, given all that, I would expect to see some selling if and when we get back to 20k, and that would be to set up another dip to buy . . . if the big daily long from the double bottom lows is for real. Its targets are 23,000 and change, 25,000 and change, and 28,000 and change. Remember, the opposing short was invalidated, and that, in turn, is a first confirm on the long . . .
Edit: after looking at things with your 7,21,77 MAs, instead of saying the 50% measured move retrace was front run, I'd now say that it still hasn't traded. Looking like a setup.
I am still feeling bullish in the longer term, very much so.. I think we may have been presented with another tremendous buying opportunity to capitalize on. That said, use your charts in the daily and look at moving average crossovers, find me an instance where a 10/30 or 7/21 upside cross on the daily failed to translate into big gains in the longer term. This is what it is I feel and we are in a shakeout again.. no big deal to me.. I will be alleviating myself of some of those discounted alts I grabbed when BTC jumped 13-15 when it hits bottome again in the 12,900 range possibly.
Shakeout is what it looks like to me too, but this might not be the end of it just yet - we might need to meet up with the 77 before resuming a sustainable uptrend. 😉
And I'm even more sold than ever on the idea of a range bound trade between 11k and 20k.
Glad I kept to my rules and did not buy, did pick up the ETH though at 915... BTC 12 hour may go bad again.. sigh... well good time to add to BTC with Alts on Bittrex