RE: Bitcoin to $15k in March, $8.5k by June, then $30+k by Q1/2019?

Great post!

There are only 2 people I really listen to when it comes to cryptomarket predictions. The first is masterluc and the second is anonymint. This is a great example of anonymints deep understanding of both technical analysis (TA) and fundamental analysis (FA). It's very rare to see someone that understands both of these combine them in predictions. Like someone posted here before there are a bunch of TA experts that dive into every aspect of the charts but that don't see the bigger fundamental picture.

masterluc has a prediction from last May that so far has been amazingly accurate.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

I still think this prediction is very much valid. He is slightly off on the time scale but that is close to impossible to predict. The general look at his price waves is spot on. I agree with this prediction that when we indeed do get a new ath we will race to much higher prices very fast. In the past that is exactly what has happened when bitcoin has managed to take out highs. That is also when media turns to uber bullish and brings allong all the dumb money. Given that we went from $1200 to $19600 in a few months I really don't think that a new high in the range of $100k is that ambitious. Granted that it would certainly be a blow off top and a price that can't be sustained.

So taking anonymint's prediction and masterluc's my guess is that we will have some more choppiness in this range and then race up to new ath (but higher than anonymint predicts).

Thanks for sharing that. I added a new section to the end of my my blog, to give my critique of his technical analysis (TA). We’ll observe the outcome…

He is slightly off on the time scale

And note the implications of being off on the time scale with his method. The price predictions totally change.

Given that we went from $1200 to $19600 in a few months I really don't think that a new high in the range of $100k is that ambitious.

That 16X move that already transpired brought in 2.7% of Japan’s population into Bitcoin. Another 10X move (to the $180k his chart predicts by Q1/2019) would need to bring that to 27% of the population if proportionality is required. Do you really think we’re ready for that level of transformation in the adoption that quickly? Rather I think we’re near a topping and then we’ll need a few years for the rest of the population to catch up with the early adopters. However, blow-off tops can spike in the short-term beyond the inertia of the fundamentals, i.e. proportionality of adoption doesn’t have to keep up with that blow-off move to a crypto winter peak.

The Asians are the early adopters en masse. The Westerners are lagging and will be the greater fools. The Asians will be selling into this coming peak and then repurchasing at much lower prices. The Westerners are by now the milking cow for Asian to consume. We’re old and decadent demographically, economically, and culturally.