Interesting stuff for sure. I do a good amount of crypto analysis and trading but this takes it another level. A macro view. Loving it!
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Interesting stuff for sure. I do a good amount of crypto analysis and trading but this takes it another level. A macro view. Loving it!
Thank you sir for sharing your thought. That is meaningful and motivational coming from someone who does trading and analysis (which btw is not my vocation at all, I’m a programmer, computer scientist, and developing an altcoin project). I had been trying to answer that question for a while now as to whether we have much probability of heading into a crypto winter now (because I have a responsibility to help manage/advise on the Bitcoin funds for my project), and I had that conflict about recent
Dec 2017peak ($19,660) being 16X higher than theApr 2013non-crypto winter peak. Then I found a way to analyze it the made sense holistically. Whether my theory will end up being true is another matter, but at least I’ve shared my logic on the matter. I also credit a full-time trader friend of mine, who created the second chart in my blog, which I have shared with his explicit permission.Note $100,000 before the next crypto winter seems much less likely to me than it did before I arrived at this latest analysis/conjecture. Rather $50,000 seems to be about the extent of the possible upside in early 2019. Okay maybe I could see some slight possibility of $70,000 on a spike intraday, but afaics $100,000 seems out-of-line with the possible extremes of the relationships of the patterns.
P.S. I had offered on the BCT forum to donate BTC to Trololo earlier in 2017 if he would update the first chart on my blog, and he didn’t respond. So I manually updated the BTC price history on the chart, but wasn’t able to recompute the regression curve fit.