Great question. If you take a step back you start to see that an 'edge' isn't something you can pull out here and there to 'predict' markets.
An edge occurs over a series of trades. Similar to a casino. In roulette for example you get odds of 36-1, however there are 38 (in the US) outcomes, the 36 numbers and the 0 and 00.
The casino knows that in the long run they'll make money because they are paying out 36-1 odds on a 38-1 bet. They however don't know what the outcome of the next spin will be.
So trading isn't about predicting the future, knowing what investment is good next. It's about finding opportunities where you're more likely to make money (over a series of trades) than lose money. Just like the casino.
What you're talking about is a correlation between XMR and BTC - if, and only IF this is part of a larger statistical correlation and not an 'anecdotal' relationship... and you determine specific entries and exits that work over a series of trades to make money. Then technically you have an edge.
At the same time however, if you're glued to your trading screen for enough time you can develop a gut feel for when trades will work. Due to that unconscious competence.
Long story short.. to answer your question, if you've seen that correlation play out multiple times, then put a little money on the line and see what happens. You'll most likely lose it, but make note of the emotions you go through and the data you can pick up.... you may just find an edge that will make you a decent chunk of money in the long run. As for the alt coins to trade, again, it comes down to the data or experience you have.
Sorry if this comes across as really abstract... that's just the nature of probabilities :P ... and edges :)
Exactly, the edge is mostly just a guideline to follow in all of a persons trades. Yet it doesn't guide where to trade.
aaahh I see so it's more about the guarantee that you'll profit by your average winnings! Be the casiono, not the player.
Mmm I am still having difficulty, I have the moment were I invest in an alt thinking it might go up only to see it dumped like crazzy in the next hour. Then I emotionally sell on a low :(
Ok so experiment with small amount of money, I think I understand. Thanks!
The edge is more than a guideline, it's a traders mathematical deity.
The way I make sense of it, in my head. Is to ask myself
.. is this a casino or a gamblers trade?
If you can explain to yourself why it's a casino's trade... Then take it. Otherwise, keep looking for opportunities.
There are more than you can handle out there.
When beginners start trading they generally have the belief that they're only taking a trade to make money. But knowing the traders equation. You know you won't make money in every trade. All you can hope for as a trader is to take a 'type' of trade that will work in the long run.
You don't care about the trade in front of you, you only care about the average of the next 20 or so trades ahead of you.
In your particular example, you only saw the trade in front of you, take a step back and see the next 20 trades. You'll soon realise that you don't feel that emotional about the next trade in front of you... It's just one of twenty. You'll be better able to take advantage of the opportunities.
Lol the deity! Wow so I need to change my whole perspective on trading! There is no "one trade" that matter; It is always an average, correct?
Always be the casino, never the gambler!
That definitely describes me, I have been choosing these trade and putting all my hope into each one instead of making an average! Another difficulty is when to know to sell or when to hold!
Yeah I am starting to understand that now! Yeah, you win some you lose some. What is the best way to keep track of all your trades to make that average. You write down each one using a specific software or program?
Honestly from my experience you can win every time if you only get what you want out of the market and not to always look for that big trade that you think will make you wealthy. I'm still struggling due to trading with low capital and time constraint. For example, they say " if you can't trade with small money then you can't trade with big money " 0r vice versa l0l. That's true to a certain extent but I've noticed that Big money is way easier to trade. The hard part is knowing when to STOP trading. Over-trading is a traders WORST nightmare! And so, with small money i'm under pressure when I find my family wanting to go some where or need help with paying bills & what not, then I find myself over-trading trying to get that BIG paycheck, feel me!
But small 0r big money, you can be successful by not over-trading and taking ONLY what YOU want from the market. Say the market is poised to head up very high but you exist when you hit your set mark OR when it goes up a nice amount of pips(forex), set you STOP-LOSS@break-even. I will get it soon, I just have to have time on my side. 0nce I get my account back to a $1000, it's a wrap!
Right, So no going all in on the "big win" trade! I have low capital to actually. only 1 BTC to work with. I definitely understand.
Right a trade is a trade regardless of what you wager! I still need to learn how stop losses work a little more but I am starting to understand them now.