STEEM: 1-DAY MACD could be about to go green (soon!) on poloniex.

in #trading7 years ago

Hi folks,

I've found in the past that the 1-day MACD on poloniex turning green, can sometimes be a useful indicator for trading. But, unless you watch the charts every day, you might likely miss this event! Therefore, I just wanted to make a post about this, in case anyone is interested :)

Please note: I am not suggesting a correlation between this event and any price change, and I am not advising buying or selling based on this. Instead I'm only discussing some annotated charts, which may or may not be of interest to the reader.

First's let's look at the chart of STEEM on poloniex:
Screen Shot 2017-07-21 at 03.52.46.png
I've marked previous 1-day MACD red->green changes with magenta arrows, and I've put a question mark next to last one because it hasn't changed over yet.

Do you think there is any correlation between these arrows and price increases? And does another MACD red->green switch-over look likely to occur soon?

Out of interest, here's another current chart (Bitshares), for which I've added the same indicators:
Screen Shot 2017-07-21 at 03.51.46.png
The same questions arise: What's the likelihood of both a 1-day MACD red->green switch over occurring soon, and will we see a price increase (relative to BTC) too?
Also, this chart has a 'double bottom' formation, which is often regarded as an indictor that a reversal (price increase) may take place soon after.

Finally, here's one more current chart from poloniex (Stratis), which I've included because it shows a recent 1-day MACD red->green switch over.
Screen Shot 2017-07-21 at 03.50.41.png

As we can see from this chart, there was a nice price increase (shown by the cyan arrow), which did coincide with a 1-day MACD switch over. But was this coincidence, or is there some other reason to explain it? (Personally, I think it's quite likely there could be an external reason - but as I'm not looking to trade it, I haven't looked into it!) However, even if an external reason was the cause of a large price increase, it might also likely cause the 1-day MACD to switch over too - since its data is directly derived from the price data!

One other thing that might lead me to believe that it could be less likely that we see large price increases in typical alt-coins, right this minute, is that we've just had a very substantial rebound in prices already (like was the case with STEEM, Bitshares & many other, today). And, this doesn't show up on the alt-vs-BTC charts, because BTC has just had a huge increase too (from its recent low).

This brings us to the question of whether we should even be using alt-coin against BTC charts for any technical analysis? Personally, I tend to avoid looking at these types of chart when I can avoid it (for the reason that BTC can be very unstable), and much prefer alt-coin-against-USD charts wherever possible. However, I still think alt-vs-BTC charts may be of some interest, especially for coins that are mainly traded against BTC (and STEEM is a good example of this). One main reason, I believe, is: if there are a lot of other traders out there making decisions based on the same alt-vs-BTC chart (and one example might be the 1-day MACD red->green switch over on poloniex), then I tend to think this in itself could be a cause of some price movements (whatever the technical merits of using the chart)!

Finally, here's a chart of STEEM against USD (taken from coinmarketcap):
Screen Shot 2017-07-21 at 03.54.18.png

As we can from this chart, we've already had a substantial increase in the price of STEEM, over the last week: from around $0.90 at its low point to nearly $1.40 right now (so, around a 50% increase)!
This chart also looks to be showing a bit of an 'inverse head and shoulders formation'- which could be taken as a positive sign for the continuance of the rebound.

Anyway, whether you are trading or not, it may still be of interest to see what happens to these charts in the next few weeks. Will we see the 1-day MACD switch-over? Personally I might hazard a guess that this looks to me to be quite likely. But, will we see a substantial increase in STEEM when plotted against BTC? To me, this is a much trickier thing to predict, particularly in the case STEEM (or Bitshares) right now, because as I mentioned (1) BTC is very unstable, and (2) we've already had a 50% bounce back of STEEM when plotted against USD. But the reader must make up their own mind, of course!

Please let me know if you have any comments or views on this post. Thanks!

DISCLAIMER: Nothing in this post pertains to any trading advice.

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Good analisys about crypto
@xaero1 image

Great pic...like it :D. Thanks!

Great to have your work analysis again !!
U5dszWGivKuTAXmB8Pnj7PCshDXFPbA.gif

Cool!!!thanks:D

Hahahaha... love it!😄

LOL! :]]] Oh wow... thanks for the upvote!

This is the Comment of they day hahah amazing

Thanks :P

It seems to me that you invested this week in the encrypted currencies, that's good, because it will increase the price. This is encouraging.

Yes, a good week for trading. Also a great week for anyone holding steem power. No idea where it will end up, but the higher the price the better it is to everyone - holders, and payout awards!😄

In other words, this upvote should be worth more today :)
Plus thanks for the gif!

Excellent analysis as usual! I bet you're glad you got that extra Steem Power when you did :) It's definitely hard to say what will happen to the price of steem, but my untechnical view is that it will slowly and surely incrementally increase in stages and then at certain junctions it will experience a steeper jump in value. What will be the catalyst to drive the next price leap? I'm not sure...maybe even more user growth?

My view is that one of the reasons why Bitcoin and a lot of the other cryptos are rebounding now is because there's good news with the whole Bitcoin SegWit thing.

I think overall there's still a bit of a bubble what with the ridiculous amount of new tokens/coins coming out every day now. I think there's a lot of good, viable protocols/apps/coins mixed in with the bad but right now everything in the space is on fire. This will flesh out at some point and many will fall but the substantive, useful ones will be really successful (I'm hoping I'm only betting on those). That's my two cents of where things stand anyways.

Haha...well I bought some steem power under $0.50, then some at over $2.00; then more in between (so I couldn't give an exact figure on my ave. buy in price).

As for STEEM, i have somewhat mixed expectations. I am fully committed I just worry a bit with new users giving up if they don't earn much...along with a bit of a possible tragedy of commons thing were steem power is concentrated too much, and not spread out enough...but this was a problem that's always been present due to the bad launch method. But let's see... I don't plan on selling any steem whatever!

As for crypto, news is not the only thing and certainly not the main thing that drives long term price imo .... instead, there are natural repeating cycles of hype. I have a feeling that this is dying down...but it's possible we could get another burst later in the year.

Thanks a lot for your comment 😀

I learned that MACD studies different averages and their relationship in time. It's useful when measuring extremes because it has no limits, and it can be really useful when paired with an oscillator (e.g. RSI) to discover when a security is overbought or oversold.

Many use the MACD histogram as a momentum indicator which can also help you in deciding when to buy or sell. However, MACD is considered a lagging indicator so I try to look at other indicators too.

I'm no trading expert (currently teaching myself) and I encourage others to watch this video to learn more about it:

note: I'm in no way associated with Coinigy. I just find this video to be useful.

Cool! Thanks for your comment, and for posting that link!

Maybe I should be referring to MACD histogram rather than MACD... Anyway, whatever it should be called, it's what I use, along with EMA switch overs :)

But, yes , anything based on an average of recent prices will lag...but then that's the point. Either way, those are the two indicators I use. I've a heard a lot about RSI, but I can't ever say I have found it useful (although perhaps I didn't take time to try to understand it!)

I agree with your artickle
But i not have much money
@xaero

Very interesting!
Your technical analysis in the crypto market using my favorite indicator ( MACD ) is Really so good..

"This chart also looks to be showing a bit of an 'inverse head and shoulders formation'- which could be taken as a positive sign for the continuance of the rebound. "
I agree fully with you..

Keep the good work, Thanks for sharing..

If you have sometime please check this meme:
https://steemit.com/meme/@lordoftruth/he-she-they-and-angel-steem-let-us-drink-coffee-with-hot-steem

Wish you a great and sunny friday

Thanks very much & great to hear someone concurring with some of the stuff I was discussing😄

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Jeez there looks like there is a strong correlation @xaero1
Looks like when there is red for the first time you can cash out if you want since it persists for a while then it flips to green then keeps alternating.
If this keeps going on you could probably manipulate the markets and earn some money if you know that it keeps alternating and there is no spontaneous events.
However, the crypto markets are unpredictable sometimes so let's see if this trend persists
Thanks a lot for your analysis and graph

The funny thing is whenever I think something's a dead cert, I will often lose money ;). But yeah, I'd say it looks like there a nice correlation, but perhaps that only worked well in the past when bitcoin was relatively stable. That's why I'm a bit dubious about using the STEEM/BTC chart, right now, given BTC's crazy spike in the last week. But I'm still interested to be see how the charts have panned out in a couple of weeks time :D

TA should not be used as evidence of absence especially in absence of evidence. Glad to see you highlighted points to why this would be happening too.

Thanks! (I need to read your first sentence over a couple of times in order to processes it, though!!😄)

very interesting! The MACD is my favorite indicator actually, helped me when trading stocks. I still dont really know if you can trust technical analysis in the crypto market... anyways, good work.

Thanks!!

In crypto, I pretty much exclusively use only EMA switch-over and MACD switch-over for trying to figure out up or down direction.

For trying to predict break-outs and bounces, I also use b-bands, Fibonacci, and 'triangle patterns'.

Both EMA and MACD can prove wrong, of course, but if they are both positive on many or critical time frames, I take this as increasing my odds that I choose the right way!

Interesting. When I studied those indicators, I learned that MACD and EMA are only applicable in times when prices follow a trend. If they dont, the indicators were said to be useless. So do you only use it when eg the bitcoin price is following a trend? Cause the last days/weeks it was sooo volatile, I couldnt see any clear trend, at least not on an hourly basis...

But since BTC and ETH, for example, reached their tops, we move into a considation period. During this time Fibonacci is really useful for guessing what level of retrace we get. BTC bounced at around the 50% level; ETH bounced at around the 50% level a few weeks earlier, and since that didn't hold I was completely expecting it to hit the next fib level down at around $150 (it went slightly lower, but still close). Once all this bouncing stops, then I agree, EMA and MACDs will be the things I'll be looking at more than Fibonacci or triangle patterns.

But still, EMA and MACD are always important too I'd say. The complication right now is that they are sending conflicting signals. The 1-day charts are very bullish imo (MACDs just gone green & EMAs holding); whereas the 1-week charts are very bearish (MACDs just gone red)! Because of this my plan right now is to only do limited trading, I.e. Trading bounces, but not looking to follow the trend because it isn't clear yet imo!!

Update: Just noticed after that segwit spike, the 1 week MACD for BTC is back to green again :). Can it last? I really don't know :)

thanks a lot, your answer made things a lot clearer to me.

Great to have you back was missing your analysis in this week :)

Heyyyy.. thanks - you are so kind!!

I've been too busy trading BTC and ETH! It's been a crazy week, but a good one too for trading. Seems to have finally calmed down a bit (but that never lasts!)😀

aahah you were doing very much back stage :P i missed the opportunity to invest at the rate of $1900 BTC :(

Yeah... do you trade much?

It is really difficult to learn to sell near the top (since you could miss out on it increasing more),
and it's really difficult to learn to buy when everyone has panic sold (because it could keep falling), of course. But this is the way to make money trading: buy low, sell high (sure you've heard that before! 😀)

But, there's also the buy and hold strategy, and I still have a pretty large portolio that I don't trade, primarily consisting of steem power. This is very easy, as I just don't plan to sell whatever the price goes to! And if it goes up in value, then I didnt even have to put in any work to earn that :)

i don't do much trade just bought and kept it for investment would like to learn more of trade but at the same time fear hit me back.

Yeah I've also found trading very difficult unless you can make it your full time job...I badly need a break hehe:)

hehe you deserve it :D

But yes, you are right!

And I would have really liked to post 'buy now' at exactly the bottom (and in a way feel bad that I didn't!)..... but the truth is it's very difficult to catch it. Everyone is trying to do this same thing ;) And making posts would make this task harder.

In fact, I wasted $1000s by buying and then selling, before it hit the bottom. Still eventually made pretty good return. But unlike, say with this post I made here...about spotting a MACD change over, trying to figure where the bottom is during a crash is not so easy. The one thing that is very easy to predict is there is always a good bounce, once you have found the bottom: and not getting a 50% retrace back up is pretty unusual In my experience.

You are right, It is definitely green and it will rise more and more!
I hope it will not stop before $10

Like to hear that talk :)

@xaero1 this is a very good analysis - 100% upvote and resteemed. I understand why many technical analysts use BTC as benchmark to other altcoins including steem. I , however, will prefare Steem Vs USD or Euros (Fiat currencies) because of the volatility of bitcoin. And note that bitcoin can even reach 5K+ by end of next year if all goes well on August 1st. Steem will do very well and is doing great and thus we should not compare it to bitcoin. Buy more steem now and power up before its too late Thanks for sharing.

Agreed, I much prefer using USD based charts rather than BTC based ones. At times in the past BTC has been somewhat stable, but with this recent bubble, you can't reallly say that! Still, poloniex charts are what they, and it's mainly BTC traded there, so they still may be interesting in some way I think.

Many thanks!😁

Welcome buddy..what an excellent post from you. I am currently writing a post and will submit in about 25 minutes.. feel free to check it out..Thanks

Done so; cheers :)

Thanks a lot buddy, bless you. Wish you a great weekend.

Me parece perfecto que siempre compartas esta tipo de información, apesar de que no domino del todo el ingles y uso el traductor logre captar tu mensaje. Sigue así es bueno ayudar a los demás, y se ve super bien que respaldes esa información con las gráficas! Éxitos sigue asi @xaero1

Thank you very much for your kind comment😀

Great article explaining the MACD! I personally think we'll see a rise very soon as well. We just had a sharp run-up, now we're having the standard market correction. But with everything going on and segwit being that much closer to becoming activated, it's only a matter of time before we see green again :)

Thanks! As I say, I'd normally be pretty confident about that chart...it's only because BTC has been so volatile, that I'm a bit more on the fence right now. But as I'm heavily invested in SP, there's nothing I'd like better than the price to continue going back up!

Coming from stock market trading, I am still trying to get hang of crypto trading. As your charts show against USD we see nice increase, but all because btc increased. Against btc not much change.
It seems change against btc comes slower afterwards.
Good stuff, educational. Thanks

Cool, glad you found it interesting! As I said, though, steem against usd would be a much better graph to use, but unfortunately there isn't much trading done on that pair. Also, my favourite site, https://cryptowat.ch, doesn't list steem at all (maybe I wil try emailing/bribing them to add it :P )


You're a genius. And yes as we can see through your theories the chart or we can say the flow pattern of coin like stratis and bitshares are in red, which means they're down but as compare to other m coins they all are rising from last 2 day. Steem is another coin whose pattern is in red block but as we can see it was 0.93 day before yesterday and today its price is much better.
I hope it's worth, and maybe this is pre effect of segwit proposal
I appreciate your theory and your concept
Well written @xaero1

Well, I certainly wouldn't say genius....but just want relay some of my crypto trading experience. The are two main indicators I use: EMA cross-over, and MACD cross-over. I'd probably say out of the two, the latter is a bit less reliable....but still, it's something to be aware of!

Only bitcoin is rising , if it falls altcoins will fall harder

I think you may well be right. MACD going green does not imply a price rise, only that increases the odds I'd say.

Definitely worth an upvoted and a resteem :)

Thanks!

great read. Crypto its great

Thanks!

Nice technical analysis using MACD. I agree with you; BTC is certainly volatile, and a good strategy would be to take 10-15% profit, and trading against fiat is much better, IMO @xaero1

Cool... thanks :)

@Xaero1 I think Steem / USD will have a slight correction before going up, regarding BTC as you say the MACD is giving signs of purchase and their moving averages intersect another signal is more likely to continue increasing in price to lower it. And in the trading one has to work based on the probability of the market

Agree with you

Amazing Knowledge transfer, i really appreciate it, do post like this

but i have one question does btc go high after getting into two part or it will remain same ?

Whats your analysis about this ????

Thanks for your kind words!

Personally, I would expect the price of BTC to fall in some correlation to how much BCC is valued...i.e., so I don't view this as a good thing. And I can't easily see a reason why the market cap of the two split versions of BTC should be worth more than the market cap of the original non-split BTC. The reason being is that network effect is now split, so less powerful. (However, if BCC's value is low, perhaps it will not have much of an effect.)

But who knows - the market will decide!

I don't think so, what i think that bitcoin will go high due to the statistics i have seen by research, whats your view should btc effect the crypto market and bidders of that or it can't make that much effect ?

I have no idea how to value BTC on the fundamentals, so i pretty much stick to the technicals.

Perhaps what's happening right this minute is that the split is generating trading interest. I bought some myself, but I'll be looking unload it all, or even wait for the split out of curiosity and then sell the BTC, along with the free BCH!

But as for long term holding, I'd want to wait all this has settled down following the split and segwit being enabled....then look at the technicals again😀

Great post @xaero1 :)

Lol......... TY🙃

@xaero1

Please help post introduction of my self.
you are willing to do it ??

Sorry, but no point adding off-topic comments to these old TA threads as I'm not responding to them! You can try reposting on my 'upvote or not upvote' thread, but there's only so many replies I can respond to.

Wowww mr.crypto so easy get money in poliniex.. You great
@xaero1

Well, that's what it may look like .... but you still need a lot of patience. Often you think it's reached the bottom, but it still goes lower. When you do catch the real bottom though, then you can experience a great profit on the eventual bounce!😀

I would like the price to dip again so I can buy!

I'm semi expecting a double bottom actually....never really trust a single one! But I'd prefer it didn't!

Remember, you have buy when there's still blood on streets (rather than when they've started clearing up the mess...)! 😀

Wow a very useful invention, i do not think like that. I have to try it. Thank you for the information @xaero1. Very useful.

Yeah: knowledge (charts) is power, in the world of crypto trading.
Thanks & regards :)

I can learn a lot from your posts, I hope to succeed like you. @:))

thnx for giving me information..

Thanks for sharing with Us bro. :D

Cool if you liked it :)

Ok that's actually pretty helpful post. Gonna resteem it.

Thanks! :)

Steem price is increasing, it is a good sign. Thanks for the useful information.

Only time will tell :)

Great news for steemains that steem is rising and your charts is very informative

Thank you

Thanks for the useful information.

Regards

Thanks for your analysis !

Cheers!

I think if hardfork won't happen after 1st August all coins will grow!

There is still the plan by miners to hard fork three months later; also there is a plan to hard fork by 'bitcoin-ABC' (though I don't think this one would affect things much). But apart from those things, everything should be cool! ;)

Hopefully stay green, keep analyzing @xaero1

Wow ,,, this is what I'm waiting for you @xaero1
I will make one poem for you to come back and make a new post

Very useful insight.

Thanks :)

Tombs up man...datz what the world is looking for
Keep it up

Thanks :)

Ok, that's quite a big picture of a thumbs up indeed!😯

Good post can be dependable and can be an example.semoga be a friend @yooraa .nice

As you predicted, btc would rise again. Everyone's back here. But still, let's be hopeful that the trend will persist in the upcoming days.

Did I predict that? Oh good.. Haha. But yeah, I'm always hedging my bets/predictions :)

I think I said short term i thought it would bounce back. After every crash there is a bounce; the only question is how high it gets! And then yesterday we got a really nice spike but that was entirely due to external factors (segwit getting approved).

But medium term, I'm wouldnt be surprised about a longish 'consolidation period'/or 'correction' period... but we shall see. Coinbase are apparently still signing up record numbers!😀

Yeah I think you did @xaero1. ;) You told me once that steem and btc will go up again. What a relief for everyone here. Everyones was panicking and I even saw someone selling his steemit acct lol. But let's see how high it gets. It's pretty exciting to watch, especially to someone new to crypto trade.

Maybe it's time for me to change my steem. I should probably invest more in sp too, it sucks that my upvote doesn't really have an impact on anyone's post. Especially on mine!

Where do you recommend saving btc btw, hardware wallet, offline or some online wallet?

I've got a nano ledger s. Would highly recommend for anyone who keeps offline BTC, ETH, ERC20 tokens, or any of the other cryptos it supports.

I think it's sensible to only store up to a certain proportion of your net wealth in crypto. This proportion should be such that if the value halves (which can happen all the time in crypto), or even goes close to zero, you should be 'ok' with that. If you aren't 'ok' with that, then you're probably too heavily invested. And, if you're long term bullish and don't have too much invested as a proportion of your net wealth, then low prices are time to buy more.

For example, I recently planned that my limit for buying steem power would be 200,000SP. But when prices crashed down to $0.90, my instinct was to buy more at the low prices (and to offset the fact I paid over $2 for some of my SP)! So, that's how I ended up with 250,000SP😃What I wasn't thinking of doing was selling, esp. at low prices!

Due to the amount of steem power I have locked up now and because I also have some smaller long term investments in crypto (ERC20 tokens mostly - e.g. GNT, REP, GNO, and others), I don't really like to hold much BTC or ETH right now, and prefer just to trade it. Also, I prefer tokens to hold, that potentially offer a return on investment and have low inflation. STEEM has some inflation, but does offer a very good return investment in the form of payouts to offset this. Anyway, whether it works out or not, SP is my main investment. But, many people like BTC because of its potential for genuine adoption as a currency, and the hard limit on how much will ever exist (21m).

As for investing in STEEM, it's gamble I'd say (but I'm all in!). But, since rewards are now linear in relation to how much you have, then hopefully even a modest amount should generate a return on investment. This was not the case before the recent hard fork. I guess you could invest a modest amount and then record how much return you are getting, as well as seeing if the upvote power boast is doing enough for you :)

And if you're looking to building a position in crypto long term, I would recommend dollar cost averaging. But it only works if you stick to the plan😀 I.e. If the price drops, you keep buying your regular amount to add to your position; and what you don't do is panic sell the position you've spent time building up, imho hehe!

I think it's sensible to only store up to a certain proportion of your net wealth in crypto.

I agree, I'm really not gonna be heavily invested in crypto / btc for now, since I'm new to this. And like you, my instinct was also telling me to buy when the price was low. Instead of being like every one panicking here.

And if you're looking to building a position in crypto long term, I would recommend dollar cost averaging. But it only works if you stick to the plan😀 I.e. If the price drops, you keep buying your regular amount to add to your position;

This is what I'm planning to do, just buy some regular amount and build it from there. I think I'm pretty happy with what I've done with my steem right, and I'm happy to change it to btc now. So maybe I'm gonna wait for the next down lol, to buy.

I like risks as you can read on my blog lol, so I don't usually worry about something since I don't have a lot invested. BTC is a high-risk investment I think,but for anyone who knows what he/she doing, then there's profit to be made.

Wow it makes sense to me why you invested in sp, just imo, if you post something, you can quickly upvote yourself (which is default here anyway), then attract more upvotes due to the value of your upvote. You can even help yourself get to the trending page of any topic (this is what I've observed so far), then you're even more visible to upvoters & followers.

This is why I think it is good for me to invest in sp, aside from the long-term reward.

Thanks as always @xaero1

Thanks, and you are very welcome. Good luck:)

Good stuff bro.

Thanks :)

Always buy :)

👍😏

Thnaks for the tip! i'm about to use that to earn money for my rent :D

Ok, please don't bet your house on it! 😮

Seriously though, the patterns look appearing, but they only work until they don't! Trade at your own discretion! I am not giving trading advice!
😀

xaero1 I also believe the mac D will turn green very soon and I think we will get another run up in price jmho

I'm excited too, to see if we do get a reaction in price, in the next week.

Possibly BTS chart is a bit more bullish since there's been a double bottom....but I'm not planning to buy much, as I don't really see big value in holding that one. Whereas STEEM POWER is my biggest holding because of rewards it provides.

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