If the connections between policy and economic affect could be precisely predicted with something so concrete as equations, we would make the right choice 100% of the time. The fact is making economic predictions is usually slightly more than a shot in the dark. Our best bet is history.
"In opening the economy of China, the agreement [PNTR] will present unprecedented opportunities for American farmers, workers, and companies to compete successfully in China's market. This is a 100 to nothing deal for America when it comes to the Economic consequences." - Bill Clinton 1999 upon signing the PNTR agreement.
Well, Bill was wrong and America never competed will in Chinese markets. Rather, the U.S. has since fallen further into industrial decline, debt, and wage-loss, with a disappearing middle-class. See, we used to tax imports more, but over time for decades, past the 1990s, we have reduced these tariffs and established new global trade rules that were hypothesized to benefit America - 100% chance as Bill Clinton believed. As China's wealth grew, their investment into their own industrial systems has allowed them to set the global standard for affordability. More and more, our companies could only compete less and less with China. This was not an inevitability in World History -- this catastrophe has been caused by the poor decisions of previous administrations. It's time to go back - that or we fall as a country.
There are only two options you can choose from - the tariffs are good, or the tariffs are bad. Well, we reduced the tariffs and have been destroyed in the global markets. So it shouldn't be that hard to figure out that the tariffs are GOOD.
On the morning of March 2, you may have heard news that Donald Trump announced a 20% tax of steel and 10% tax on aluminum imports. His reasoning stated has been that this is truly a last resort to save American jobs and that the current tariff systems are ridiculously disadvantageous to America. Is he correct? Spoiler - Yes. I know - shocking - calm down, it's okay. Trump being right is actually a good thing for America.
Within mere minutes of this announcement, the mainstream media proclaimed this as a disastrous provocation a trade war with Europe, since "European leaders have responded saying they will retaliate blh blah" -CNN. Who did they cite? At first, no one - they just made it up. A short while later, Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, stated to the German media that America would be treated “the same way.” Then all the media prints 300 word, 5-minute typed articles about trade wars, economic collapse, market tanking, etc. Well the Market actually closed positively for many American companies and overall the DOW dropped by a factor of .0029 - nothing noteworthy whatsoever. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but CNN and the like aren't an entity of 100% Economics PHD experts - they're corporate journalists, entertainers, no different than clowns.
As someone who has studied Economics at the University of California Berkeley, I can say that there are truly so many variables at play that it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict the outcome. Yes, there are so many models and calculations, but any professor will tell you that these calculations are hardly connected to reality since they take on too many assumptions to be reliable predictors. Sometimes, increasing tariffs are good. Sometimes, they are bad. These all depend on the circumstances/variables going into the tarriffs. Much of economic theory actually comes from partisan hacks, and it changes all the time. I could sit here and go over each variable as it is right now and run through the calculus, but there's no point. The model is a joke and I'm not going to bother plugging in these variables because it's a non issue. It's better to look at history. We reduced the tarriffs, got demolished, so I'll bet on bringing the tariffs back rather than continuing down this path.