Zogby Poll/Trump approval

The Zogby Poll®

Trump’s job approval at 46%

A majority of voters believe the US economy will improve in the next four years!

Zogby Analytics® conducted a nationwide online survey of 847 likely voters. The survey was in the field 1/12/18 - 1/15/18 and has a margin of error +/- 3.4 percentage points. The following highlights are from the poll: for the first time in 2018, Zogby Analytics measured President Trump’s job approval rating, and it has improved since our last nationwide poll in November 2017. Currently, the president’s job approval rating (very and somewhat approve combined) is 46% approve and 51% disapprove (very and somewhat disapprove combined) among U.S. likely voters.

The president’s numbers have improved because he has rebounded with some elements of his base. Trump’s numbers with men and women are both better—among men, his job approval is 52% approve/47% disapprove, while support among women has crept up to 40% approve and 54% disapprove. When it comes to age and generational demographics, Trump does better with middle aged voters 30-49 and 50-64—both groups approve of Trump 48% and 50%, respectively. Half of voters aged 30-49 disapprove and 47% of voters aged 50-64 also disapprove. Donald Trump’s job approval is not great among younger voters (aged 18-29—32% approve/59% disapprove) and older voters (aged 65+--47% approve/51% disapprove). The President continues to struggle with independent voters; his job approval is a dismal 33%, while 59% of independent voters disapprove.

Among ethnicities, Trump’s numbers improved among Hispanic voters to a previous high of 45% approve/55% disapprove. He continues to have a good approval rating among white voters—52% approve/43% disapprove. Trump’s numbers are weakest among African American voters (17% approve/81% disapprove).

The president’s job approval rating is very strong among certain groups: weekly Walmart shoppers--58% approve/38% disapprove, NASCAR fans--64% approve/33% disapprove, homeowners—52% approve/46% disapprove and voters who have lost jobs—57% approve/41% disapprove. Trump’s numbers are also up among groups he has recently had trouble with-union voters—48% approve/51% disapprove, voters living in small cities—47% approve/46% disapprove and voters earning $75,000-$100,000 annually (57% approve/42% disapprove). Regionally, the president does well in the south (47% approve/50% disapprove) and the central/great lakes regions (46% approve/48% disapprove. His job approval numbers have improved in the West (48% approve and 50% disapprove).

The President is still not doing great with voters in the East region (41% approve/57% disapprove), voters living in large cities (41% approve/56% disapprove), lower income voters earning less than $25,000 and $25,000-$35,000 annually; both are 38% approve and 58% and 51% disapprove, respectively.

President Trump’s job approval rating has improved because the current economic conditions in the U.S. are getting better. Not everything is pointing to an economic boom, but there’s increased optimism among businesses due to the recent tax cuts passed by Republicans and the stock market is at an all time high. These factors and others might explain an increase in the president’s job approval rating right now with voters.

One of our survey indicators we use to measure how the economy is doing is to ask voters “How do you feel the next four years will be for the U.S. economy?” Below the numbers are very positive—54% believe things will be good (excellent and good combined). Nearly two in five (38%) of voters have a negative outlook on the economy (fair and poor combined) over the next four years. While the obvious Trump supporters—white voters, older voters, upper middle class voters, and NASCAR fans feel the next four years are going to be great, it’s the groups who give the President his lowest approval ratings who are also somewhat optimistic about the US economy the next four years.

For example, 46% of voters aged 18-29 think the economy will be good over the next four years. A similar amount (47%) of women voters feel good about economic conditions in the next four years. Voters in the East (58%) and living in large cities (52%) are two of the more optimistic groups, both of whom do not give a high job approval rating of Trump. Among Hispanics, a majority (54%) think the economy will be good (excellent and good combined) the next four years.

Not everyone is optimistic about the next four years. Voters aged 18-24—only a quarter (24%) think things will be good, while 71% of 18-24 year old voters think things will be not good economically (fair and poor combined) in four years; nearly a third (36%) of Democrats and almost as many African Americans (38%) are positive about the economy the next four years. Both groups do not think the economy will taking off any time soon—52% and 44% think things will not be good in four years (fair and poor combined), respectively.