We have to shift to UBI, because half of the few jobs we have left will be automated before 2034 by conservative estimates. We could make that happen this year; we aren't waiting for new technology. We're just reluctant to get rid of the concept of everyone having a job to survive, because the majority of voters had to work their entire lives and it isn't fair that young people won't have to work. But it is reality. It's happening even while we resist, and people are hurting because of that resistance to reality. The jobs are not coming back. And we shouldn't want them to come back. We should be embracing the fact that we will soon be able to automate 99% of all jobs in the next few decades, and that we could automate 50% today. And thus we should be prioritizing finding new ways for people to feel useful, as well as distributing our collective wealth generated by our robotic workforce. A robotic workforce doesn't mean robots that walk around and have complicated AI; most are just hydraulic arms, for example, with simple scripts to perform preset actions.
The whole idea of worker co-ops by people like Wolff, is totally out of touch with the realities of technology. There aren't going to be workers to own the companies they work at, so it doesn't work as a model for the future. We have to have a universal basic income that sets people up to be middle class lifestyles, because there literally won't be jobs for people to do to make money other than from UBI. Anyone who says differently, doesn't understand our current technology let alone technology of 50 years from now.
The complicated robots will replace things like lawyers and doctors, and that will happen in the next few decades. The intermediate steps will be doctors doing remote surgery using robotic interfaces, with simple AI assistance to control the fine motor movements and identify problems. Eventually writers and comedians will be replaced too. The idea of the future being people who build, program, and maintain robots is also fantasy; robots can do all of that better than we can. The only jobs in 30-50 years will be "supervisors" and politicians; jobs basically to make us feel better than "a robot isn't controlling our lives" because "a person" is there "watching it all" on our behalf. When in reality, these supervisors will just sit around all day using social media and signing off on regulatory forms. (There will be a transition period, of course, as our AI systems learn to deal with unexpected events, but once they've encountered enough scenarios, people won't be needed to oversee anymore. Having people involved will really just be to make us feel better, as a sort of placebo.) And of course we won't want robots as political leaders, even though their aids will be AI and do 99% of their jobs aside from casting the actual votes and delivering the speeches.
Robots can already "simulate" human conversation to a sufficient degree to be entirely personable as wait staff. You don't need true AI to do most things, and again, we aren't waiting on breakthroughs in technology. That is a big misconception I think non-technical people have, especially when they suggest that jobs as programmers will be a thing in a decade or two.
I really don't give a shit how hard any of you had to work to get what you have, because that isn't a valid argument as to why technology isn't making everything you did obsolete. It isn't fair; I never claimed it was, but no one ever said life was fair. People will have to get money for doing nothing, or the human race will die off. That is just reality. And no amount of moralizing, no amount of political theory, or economic theory, or history, or whatever other arguments you want throw out about "socialism" being bad will change reality. No one in pre-school today will need to work a day in their lives. So we need to adapt the economy to deal with this reality, or we will have poverty on scales unimaginable, as people suffer more and more every day from this blind ignorance to the blatantly obvious.
It isn't about socialism; it's about reality. Machines are the workers. Humans can't survive without money in our system. Ergo, humans need money without working. Whether you accomplish that by getting rid of money or not, I don't care, just as long as humans start getting goods and services from robots we created without being expected to conjure money on their own efforts. We exist in a world of limitless abundance, but we live under a system predicated on scarcity.
We can mine all the resources we need from space, with our current technology, but we don't because we're not allowed to do it. We have the technology, we know how to land on asteroids (we've done it with probes), but we don't let ourselves do it because we think in terms so small, with patents, copyrights, and ownership so narrowly defined to hold us back at this point. There is no practical reason every person on the planet can't drive a Ferrari made of platinum; we know of asteroids laden with the shit. And no reason we can't make look-alike alternatives with carbon fibers in the mean-time. And if you want a different car tomorrow, drop your current one off at the recycling center in the morning while you have the replacement being printed tonight at the automated factory. We have this level of technology, but we are pretending like we don't.
We are in the god damn future, but people won't accept it, because we're told we can't have it. Wake the fuck up, people! THIS IS THE FUTURE! DEMAND YOUR SHARE OF IT! I want to scream when I hear people say, "well, maybe a thousand dollars a month to people is okay, but we can't let people have too much for nothing." facepalm You are missing the point. It isn't going to be a choice in 30 years as to whether to work hard or not. Jobs won't be there for the majority of people. You would literally have to turn back all progress to allow jobs to make a resurgence. Why the fuck would you want to do that?!
We need to start building infrastructure for a green, automated future. We need it today. We need to abandon patent laws immediately, and issue government bonds to pay for building up a massive network of green energy and automated production facilities. We need to punch the fucks in the face who say we can't afford it, or ask how do you pay for it. We pay for it with the same way we pay for everything: we print money! We employ the 30-90 million unemployed working aged, able bodied people in the US for a year or two building this infrastructure, then we sit back and enjoy the future.
I understand people like my parents, nearing 70 years old not getting it, but how anyone under 30 could think UBI isn't absolutely necessary is just a testament to the success of the propaganda system of the rich; while they benefit ungodly sums from automation, they try to convince us we don't deserve a piece of that pie. That pie only exists because we as a human race have reached this tipping point in history where our collective knowledge allows us to transcend the daily labor formerly required to produce the things we need to survive and to thrive.
I'm going to start turning my random YouTube comments in posts here. I don't see a draft option, so I guess people are going to see this right away, but it's a Work In Progress as of February 2nd, 2019. Maybe I will delete this and repost later when I have a final version? This is my first post on steemit, so figuring out how it works.
Todo: Add links to examples of all the technology I reference, and cite the various studies on jobs being automated, for people too lazy to search. Maybe add actual arguments with responses, instead of just this rant on the subject?
I have an allegory to illustrate the issue of UBI. Imagine that there was a group of people in a lifeboat. In order for everyone to survive, everybody has to work. There can be no ‘lazy folk’, for if there were it would mean the end of them all.
Then, one day, they make it to an island. It is an island abundant with resources, more than enough to sustain the group for the rest of their lives. But the group have gotten so used to having to work that they refuse to let anyone access the abundance all around them unless they ‘earn’ it.
What had been an essential philosophy in their past existence has now become an impediment to making the most of their current situation.
I think this sums up the real life issue of UBI. Once upon a time everybody had to submit to labour in order for society to survive, but those days are coming to an end. If we continue to believe that everyone must have a job when they actually don’t, we’ll probably end up inventing bullshit jobs rather than just freeing people to enjoy the abundance that collectively-built technologies have made possible.
I really like your example; it's apt and a lot more concise than I could have put it, while also painting a tangible picture for people who might not care to learn about all the technology behind this metaphorical island full of resources. A great "tl;dr" way of putting it all.
Speaking of imagery, that actually gives me an idea; maybe I should add some political cartoon style images that highlight the main message of each section.
Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I was expecting if anyone did reply, it would be trolling.
I do feel like were in a point where the rich are too greedy to even maintain the level of bullshit busywork jobs needed to sustain the population, as evidenced by the stock buybacks instead of job creation from the recent tax cuts.
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STOPrandom notes:
Rutger Bregman . Utopia for Realists- The Case for a Universal Basic Income
A company working on commercial asteroid mining
https://www.planetaryresources.com/
Economist reporting on article, "A study finds nearly half of jobs are vulnerable to automation"
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/04/24/a-study-finds-nearly-half-of-jobs-are-vulnerable-to-automation
Billionaires in outspoken favor of UBI: Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Steward Butterfield, Richard Branson, Sam Altman, Bill Gates (says we should tax robots to fund social programs)
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