Authored by George Koo via The Strategic Culture Foundation,
North Korea’s latest test of a missile with a range capable of threatening American cities has left the Trump Administration somewhere between wishful thinking and a hard place. Too bad neither represents a realistic resolution of the conundrum.
The easy way out, for the US at least, is to “let China do it.” President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Defense Secretary James Mattis and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley have in unison chanted the same basic mantra: The problem would be solved if China would apply more pressure on North Korea.
First there is no evidence China can tell North Korea what to do with any real hope of success. The two countries are not buddies and there is no love lost between China’s President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. They have not met since both leaders came to power in 2012 and they communicate via messengers.
China has supported a UN resolution strongly condemning North Korea. The Kim regime no more pays heed to China than it has to protests from South Korea, Japan or the United States.
Just as China cannot stop North Korea from developing nuclear weapon and intercontinental missile technology, North Korea is not developing these technologies for China’s sake. North Korea believes it needs nuclear strike capability in order to be taken seriously by the US.
To date, sanctions on North Korea have not worked. The American response has been to ask the UN Security Council to impose more sanctions. In particular, Trump does not feel China is tightening the screws hard enough.
Shutting down North Korea’s economy might bring Kim to heel from the American perspective but clearly such a move is unacceptable from China’s view. Economic collapse would trigger a massive humanitarian crisis and China would be left to deal with the refugees as they take the only viable option and migrate north into China.
There is a flip side to this approach. Even if the sanctions bring North Korea to its knees, it does not mean the Kim regime will become more conciliatory. Kim may decide he has nothing to lose and simply launch an attack on the south.
The other tough approach is to launch a Rumsfeldian shock and awe military bombardment on North Korea before the North can attack.
There is virtually no chance, however, that carpet-bombing could vaporize the array of artillery and missiles facing South Korea. The consequent damage to Seoul and other parts of South Korea from the retaliation would be significant, not to mention the danger to the 30,000 American troops stationed in the south. There is also no assurance any precision strikes could successfully take out Kim and his inner circle nor knock out all the country’s nuclear weapons and development centers. The risks of failure are simply too great to contemplate.
There is a more sensible approach that an increasing number of commentators and foreign policy observers are suggesting the Trump Administration consider: offer talks without preconditions.
North Korea fears the US and knows Beijing cannot commit on behalf of Washington. Pyongyang wants to deal directly with Washington and does not see China as a credible intermediary. Why not begin a direct conversation?
The Clinton Administration almost reached an agreement with Pyongyang when the clock ran out on Clinton’s term. George W. Bush elected to ignore North Korea and then imposed preconditions before being willing to resume negotiations.
Pyongyang saw the Bush White House as dealing in bad faith and that the only way to gain American respect was to complete the development of a nuclear bomb. North Korea detonated its first nuclear bomb in October 2006, during Bush’s second term.
The Obama administration, unfortunately, followed the Bush line: no negotiations without preconditions. To push for North Korea’s agreement, Washington bandied the threats of sanctions and solicited Beijing for help.In the 16 years since the end of the Clinton administration, Washington and Pyongyang have made no progress in reaching a common understanding. Each has accused the other of acting in bad faith. The US threatened more sanctions; North Korea kept testing weapons with bigger bang and missiles with longer range.
This endless cycle is not going anywhere and the threat of an American shock-and-awe style attack clearly worries Pyongyang. Why can’t Washington soften a bit and show a willingness to talk without pre-conditions? What does it have to lose?
Will the world respect us less as a fearsome hegemon because we are willing to swallow our pride, or will it applaud us for taking the first step towards peace? Donald Trump has an opportunity to accomplish an important foreign policy triumph that has eluded his two predecessors.
Source : ZeroHedge
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In my opinion a person who candidate for president position must past a lot of tests. And most important is to past psychology test. It's dangerous for humanity and can be fatal if a psychopath can have access to nuclear weapons! This system must be changed a little bit!
These psych tests already go on, and have. They're administered by the bankers. They want to tighten things up though to make sure only people loyal to the bankers can get anywhere in society.
I don't see how this is unavoidable and China has some responsibility in that seemingly inevitable result, barring turning the peninsula into glass.
President Trump knows how to negotiate... I definitely have confidence in that.
The 5d chess on this peninsula is challenging. Success would look like de-escalation of hostilities without nuclear missiles being launched in or out; peaceful handover of power to someone capable of stopping a counter-coup without economic collapse; peacefully restore human rights to all North Koreans imprisoned in work camps
If you can't accomplish all three of those near-simultaneous, the remaining will more likely happen on an extended timeline. South Korea and Japan are facing nuclear disaster. China is facing refugee floods when they have enough population problems. North Korea is besieged with weapons they can't defend against (even non-nuclear, Rod of God for instance is most likely available)
Yes, it's Trump who is capable. This is a major issue and I doubt anyone else will be capable to handle this situation.
Pray to God that it's resolved peacefully. The Mark Taylor prophecy predicts that this will be so.
Hot damn. You're aware of the Mark Taylor prophecies too? We're gonna get along quite nicely, @ozmaga
Look here @blakemiles84. I've been following his prophecy since July, 2016!
All of it is coming true!👌
https://steemit.com/politics/@ozmaga/amazing-mark-taylor-s-trump-prophecy-unfolds-as-predicted
I heard about it back then but never dove into it. Just thought it was the standard 'had a prophecy last night'. First read back in December and was blown away. Not only did the language ring true from Above, but Taylors voice and words rang true.
Exciting times ahead.
Yes indeed @blakemiles84.👌
You brought up every major point I would have brought up with this issue. The one thing that you didn't mention though is that North Korea is basically a fly compared to the United States. There is no way Kim Jong-un would be dumb enough to attack Seoul, South Korea or anywhere else for that matter. The North Korean government has to be aware that if that tried anything they would be squashed completely within less than a month. They have no real allies, and while they may be a blemish on the face of humanity, they are far from the biggest threat to America.
North Korea is China's proxy.
When we hear threats from NKorea, we're really hearing them from Beijing.
North Korea is entirely economically dependent on China.
North Korea has only not been invaded because of China.
North Korea's intelligence comes from China.
North Korea's dictactors are protected from the people they're oppressing by China.
On every level possible, China is completely in control over North Korea.
So let's stop pretending we're talking about an autonomous country; we're talking about China.
Agreed. When the Soviet Union existed, everyone talked about how Poland, East Germany, Czechoslavakia, etc. were its buffer states. They were kept dependent on the USSR and served as its first line of defense. That's the same thing in North Korea. It's impossible to believe that China (or really, its dictators who only want to keep themselves in their privileged positions) could care so much about controlling its people and keeping a claim on Taiwan, but are hands off Korea.
All and all it's a pretty fucked situation
And Trump has to fix it!
Please follow me @mahmuddin
Thank y
Please stop spamming the comments section.
Go Trump!