From the pure base mathematics of supply and demand this underpins the steem price progress (or lack of) :
To put that in a different perspective, for every 1 STEEM invested into the platform 1.27 STEEM is taken out. For every 1 SBD invested 1.98 is taken back out.
But as has been seen with so many alt-coins the basic laws of economics can be readily overridden with enough hype and hoopla.
That is something steemit does rather miss out on - which may of course be a good thing. But a strong dose of full-on marketing I am sure would not go amiss.
One other suggestion. Would it be possible to overlay the steem price graphs on top of the withdrawal graphs. That might readily reveal an expected pattern.
As always, great analysis and thanks for finding the time to provide this management level data for steemit.