Just skimming yr post following way too much whisky on a Wednesday.
Nothing intelligent to add into the mix ATM, instead I'll just state the obvious and say that it seems that the (potential next) HF will just be an easily avoidable redistributive tweak, albeit in the right direction.
Then again, you never know the effects of small changes.... data analysis can't predict that, as you're well aware of course!
Glad to see your getting rewarded for such great analysis!