Analysis of the event that will be celebrated on January 23, 2019, with the internal and geopolitical repercussions that will be triggered from that day.
As it is well known, a call has been made for January 23, which was held on January 11 at the Open Cabildo by some deputies and the president of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó
In it (and although it is not entirely clear whether the transitional presidency will be assumed, even for today, January 19) it was stated that they will abide by article 233 of the Venezuelan Constitution, which dictates the following:
Article 233 Absolute faults of the President of the Republic: his death, his resignation, or his dismissal decreed by a sentence of the Supreme Court of Justice; his permanent physical or mental incapacity certified by a medical board appointed by the Supreme Court of Justice and with the approval of the National Assembly; the abandonment of the office, declared as such by the National Assembly, as well as the popular revocation of his mandate. When there is an absolute lack of the President-elect or President-elect before taking office, a new universal, direct and secret election shall be held within the following thirty consecutive days. While the new President or the new President is elected and takes office, the President of the National Assembly will be in charge of the Presidency of the Republic. If the absolute lack of the President or the President of the Republic occurs during the first four years of the constitutional term, a new universal, direct and secret election shall be held within the following thirty consecutive days. While the new President or the new President is elected and takes office, the Executive Vice President or Executive Vice President will be in charge of the Presidency of the Republic. In the previous cases, the new President will complete the corresponding constitutional period. If the absolute lack occurs during the last two years of the constitutional term, the Executive Vice President or the Executive Vice President will assume the Presidency of the Republic until the end of that period.
This lack of clarity has generated confusion in a large part of the population, as has also slowed down many international actions to pressure the Venezuelan regime, which, for the time being, prevents a much more frontal stance in reference to the "Venezuela Case".
In this sense, many "Open Cabildos" have been held throughout the country, with a considerable number of assistants to them.
All this even with that "lack of clarity" in relation to the assumption of the interim presidency of Venezuela.
In that sense, a sector of the population manifests its disbelief before the 23E call for being "More of the same"
The detail of all this is that it has generated a very high expectation in the population to reach definitively the freedom in Venezuela before the narcor regime that is entrenched in power
Faced with this expectation (which is not only in Venezuela) have been generated meetings with political sectors (some with doubtful trajectory and others with demonstrated coherence in speech and facts) on the conclusion of the event of 23E
That meeting was in Brazil, where there was also a high level meeting between the president @jairbolsonaro and @miguelmartint
Here we begin to see the international alignments together with organisms in exile fully recognized by the CI, especially by Brazil and this is a fundamental point with reference to the 23E call
As mentioned above, a lot of expectation has been generated in the Venezuelan population and also in administrations of Western governments that expect "The signal" to take much stronger positions against the Venezuelan regime
Given this expectation, it is worth noting that many Venezuelans are once again placing their trust in the national political leadership once again ...
In short, Venezuelan citizens are willing to take to the streets with all the consequences that implies; they are up to the political moment ... Once again ...
Given the approach with the Legitimate Supreme Court with the Brazilian government, it is more than obvious the next step in case the AN "is not clear" this 23E; of not assuming the political and historical responsibilities they face, will be discarded
And not only will be discarded by the Venezuelan population, but also by key international actors in reference to the "Venezuela Case".
There will no longer be an "Alamo" in which Venezuelan politicians can take refuge before the end of the regime
Not to take responsibility and also the clamor of Venezuelans, I believe that it will have serious and irreversible political consequences (with its respective cost) for those who seek to "stretch the wrinkle" and pose murky negotiations with the regime
Thus, 23E means a point of inflection and also of No Return for both the regime and the national political leadership.
They have to be clear about one and only one thing: they are looking to LEAVE the regime. Nothing else
It is important to emphasize once again that Western geopolitical actors are aligned with the departure of the Venezuelan regime because of the serious threat it poses to hemispheric stability.
It is enough to see the recent terrorist attack perpetrated by the ELN in Colombia with the respective statements given by Duque and Bolsonaro on this fact
The fact is that international pressure is NOT going to stop.
We are in an Intervention (diplomatic) and all the options are on the table. All. The West will no longer tolerate the Venezuelan regime
As a result of what happens in 23E, actions will be triggered depending on what happens that day.
Already the algorithmic table of actions is on the table.
It's not about hopes, but concrete facts
FREEDOM OR NOTHING
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